November 14th, 2000 12:00am
College football's Division II Sweet-16 is finally here, but for some teams the final week of the regular season was anything but sweet.
Carson-Newman is out of the playoffs for the first time in a long period of years. But it, like others in similar situations, only has itself to blame. Losses to Catawba and Presbyterian did it in.
Western Washington lost its game against Cal-Davis and with it went its playoff spot. Western's gripe, however, is that its record, which is worse than the four West Region tournament seeds, came as a result of the I-AA component of its schedule to go along with the loss to Davis. But, as the national and regional committees obviously pointed out, a loss regardless of any mitigating circumstances is still a loss.
Western Washington's situation and similar ones at Slippery Rock and New Haven raise an interesting issue. The selection process this season clearly shows that Division II's playoff authorities are not willing to give any more credence to games against I-AA teams than those against D-II competition. Essentially they have said that if a team wants to schedule a I-AA team it must be fairly certain it can win or the loss will haunt the team later. Is this fair?
A random I-AA game may or may not mean much. In Slippery Rock's case the loss to Youngstown State had some bearing on its playoff absence. It ended with a record that on a percentage basis was worse than IUP's, and then, of course, there was the mid-season mistake of losing to IUP. By the stated criteria for gaining a playoff berth, had the Rock not had Youngstown on its schedule and ended the season 8-2, it would have had an identical record with IUP. IUP did win the head-to-head match, but the criteria supposedly count common opponents on an equal footing with head-to head competition. If so then it would have been in a dead heat with IUP.
A tie would have been worked out ultimately, but when you add the Youngstown game to the mix the decision by the committee actually was an easy one. Maybe from now on this will stop teams from scheduling revenue-raising games if they harbor thoughts of competing in the playoffs. Maybe --- but it's doubtful. Greed is a powerful motivator.
The team that has the biggest gripe is New Haven. Its record going into the final week of the regular season gave it no chance of a playoff selection. But then New Haven nearly pulled a huge rabbit out of its hat, losing by only one point to Jackson State - a game that hinged on one kick and a penalty that stopped a drive near the end of the game.
New Haven has no gripe this year given the way things are currently constructed in D-II, but the box it is in may have a lid on it that can't be raised.
Some folks will argue New Haven made its own schedule so therefore it is subject to the win-loss tally it produces. Not enough wins and it is out of the party.
But how does New Haven get a D-II schedule? It tries to schedule as many PSAC teams as it can, but save for IUP and the random game it might get with Bloom or West Chester, New Haven can't get a regular slate of PSAC games. There was talk a few years ago about permitting New Haven to join the PSAC, but those folks hoping for that forgot that the PSAC is the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference. Last time we looked New Haven was in Connecticut.
No one in the West Virginia Conference will schedule New Haven and so far at least no one in the GLIAC wants to either. And even if they did, that still leaves New Haven in no-man's land as an independent forced to travel longer distances than most conference-based teams do. Seems that the folks at New Haven have some serious thinking to do. In time this situation could seriously hamper recruiting and maybe ultimately make the decision for the school - either step up to I-AA and eat the costs involved or step down and join the Eastern Football Conference (D-II non-scholarship) or move to D-III.
We have to admit to being somewhat biased about the New Haven situation particularly after reading an email from a friend and a New Haven fan. His description of the post-Jackson State game reaction by the New Haven players was enough to suggest someone in the administration owes the players a shot at winning something. But that's up to them, not us.
But for the members of the elite 16 in D-II this weekend the fun begins.
Most first round matchups seems appropriate although the Northwest Missouri game against North Dakota State is unfortunate. The game will eliminate one of the four best teams in D-II. It is not inconceivable that if the Midwest Region was not constructed as it is, including both the MIAA and the NCC, both teams could make it to the semifinals.
But one will end its season Saturday.
There should be hesitation to suggest a winner in this game, especially following the prediction made last week that the Rock would not do the unthinkable and lose at home to Bloomsburg when in fact Bloom won and had a big lead much of the game.
But predict we must - and in the NWMS - NDSU match the winner is --- Northwest Missouri State.
Why? It's simple.
NDSU comes to Maryville with a talented group. Good running from Lamar Gordon, a good line on both sides of the ball and adequate quarterbacking, but there's the rub - adequate quarterbacking.
Travis Miles at Northwest Missouri has matured notably since last year, and he was good last season. His supporting cast is better, too.
And then there is Tony Miles. Hopefully NDSU's punter works on kicking out of bounds and to specific spots on the field - spots where Mr. Miles will not be found.
But even if the punter does his job, NDSU's corners and safeties have to contend with the Miles to Miles connection on passes. Northwest should get a lot of Mile-age out of this combination.
If NDSU can keep this game within seven points late into the final period it could win. If not, Northwest moves on to round two.
The other first round Midwest game pits Nebraska-Omaha against visiting Pitt State. This is a good matchup, but one that UNO will win.
Pitt State's Gorillas have overcome more than their fair share of adversity to make it to the tournament. After hitting mid-season in a condition that had anything but playoffs written on it, Pitt State's coach challenged his team. It met his challenge and then had to overcome the loss of Lateef Walker who was involved in a serious auto accident.
Despite their obvious grit, the Gorillas face a UNO team that is playing too well right now to lose a first round game.
As far as I am concerned you can throw a blanket over all four teams in the South. Who emerges from underneath that cover is too tough to call. Both contests this weekend will be interesting, however.
If there is a weak link in the grouping it is Delta State, which likely will come out on the wrong end of its game against Valdosta. The West Georgia-Catawba contest will be an interesting contrast in styles but one in which it appears the higher-seeded Catawba should win. But as mentioned, nothing in this region offers a high level of predictive confidence.
The one and two seeds in the West should win with the highest level of confidence of a correct pick in the Davis - Chadron contest. Too bad Western Washington is not in this mix. It would have made for a much more interesting regional section of the tournament. Davis' opponent in round two should be Northeastern State after NSU beats Mesa State.
Davis has something to prove as this seasons' playoffs begin. The team certainly rolled through its regular season schedule, but it has done the same thing in previous years before eventually facing elimination well before many fans thought they would.
Western Washington pushed Davis last week, but Western had the motivation of knowing that a loss could push it out of the tournament. Despite this Davis won the game.
J.T. O'Sullivan is playing well, too well for Chadron's sake this weekend. The only way Davis can lose this game is if it beats itself with penalties or by not being focused. Penalties in previous seasons have been a major problem for Davis in some games, but overall this season it appears to be a much more disciplined team. By all measures Davis is in a different league than Chadron and should advance to round two.
Northeastern does not quiet have the performance capability advantage over Mesa State that Davis has over Chadron, but it still should win. Its win, however, could be more difficult. But a win it should be.
For Bloomsburg this weekend is the first of two home games it will have in the next two weeks. Saginaw is the first visitor and given what was just mentioned, it will go back to Michigan to follow the rest of the tournament from a distance.
Saginaw plays a different style than Bloom is used to, but Bloom's coach Danny Hale is a master at game planning. He will adjust his defense accordingly. Stopping the running of Marques Glaze and the controlled passing of Eric Miller will be too much for Saginaw. The one danger in this game is if Bloom gets behind by a TD or two in the first half. Saginaw can score quickly and from any spot on the field. But this still looks like a Bloom win.
Northwood is perhaps the best team out of the GLIAC in several years. Northwood did not miss a beat this year despite the mid-season loss of its starting quarterback. It did trip up once in the surprising loss to Ferris State in a game marred by seven turnovers.
The "wood-bone" offense, as it was once dubbed, is an option-style running attack often coming out of an I-formation. Although Northwood mostly runs the ball, it does have big play capability and a strong enough passing game to give teams fits trying to figure out what's coming next.
IUP comes into this game closely followed by the Med-van again. As though mid-season losses of both quarterbacks and numerous other temporarily debilitating injuries were not enough, the day before its final regular season game one of its most consistent offensive linemen was lost for at least a few weeks. The officials last week also put one of IUP's d-backs on the not-able-to-play list after he was tossed out of the game following two personal fouls. The NCAA levies only a half game suspension in this situation, but the PSAC will enforce a full game suspension.
IUP has been Tink-ering with its offense following the loss of its starting Q. Tink Stennett, a converted tailback, has been under center for two games and done well executing a limited offensive playbook.
If IUP is to prevail in the contest its defense will have to win the game by controlling Northwood's potentially explosive offense. IUP has to keep the game close. A two TD deficit early could mean a long ride back home.
Northwood has to be favored in this one, but IUP has shown the ability to step up in big games. The injury situation, however, could be too much to overcome.
The IUP-Northwood game has another aspect to it, which is that IUP must take a bus to the game. No airplane for this one despite the fact the team will lose a day of practice and have to ride nearly 500 miles to get to the contest.
The key phrase in the preceding line was "nearly 500 miles". The NCAA changed its distance criteria from 400 to 500 miles in determining whether it would pick up the tab for flying teams to playoff games.
This strikes a slightly discordant tone. IUP will be on a bus thanks to missing the 500-mile threshold by about 30 miles. It was not long ago that the NCAA's own website talked about a surplus in Division II and what might be done with the extra cash. There has been talk of expanding the playoffs since there was money to do it. But there is obviously no money to fly teams to games more than 400 miles away.
There has been a general feeling by many avid D-II fans that the final four in D-II is reasonably etched in stone. The consensus seems to be that the Fab Four will be Northwest Missouri, UC-Davis, Northwood and Catawba.
Although this is a reasonable list, the feeling is inescapable that this is not the right list. Thanks to using a ball with pointed ends and with some regional matches that don't have a runaway consensus winner, a few upsets along the way seem probable.
If you have some spare cash and can fly more than 400 miles you might try to get to either the Northwest Missouri-NDSU game or the Catawba-West Georgia contest. They appear to be the top games of the opening round of the playoffs.