2021 MIAA Week 11 Preview

November 10th, 2021 7:00pm

Northwest Missouri can clinch MIAA title number 31 and their 17th straight playoff appearance this week. Nebraska Kearney is a win and they are win scenario, Washburn needs a minor miracle to make the playoffs for the first time since 2012. The third regional rankings came out on Monday. Here are those rankings for Super Region Three.

Rank	Team	Region Record	D2 Record
1	Ferris State	9-0	9-0
2	Harding	9-1	9-1
3	Grand Valley	6-1	7-1
4	Northwest Missouri	8-1	8-1
5	Lindenwood	8-0	8-1
6	Henderson State	9-1	9-1
7	Nebraska Kearney	8-2	8-2
8	Southeastern Oklahoma	8-2	8-2
9	Washburn	8-2	8-2
10	Ouachita Baptist	8-2	8-2

There is only one weeks left of the regular season. This is who each team has left.

Team	Week 11
Ferris State	Wayne State (2-8)
Harding	at Arkansas Tech (4-6)
Grand Valley	Davenport (3-7)
Northwest Missouri	Emporia State (6-4)
Lindenwood	McKendree (3-5)
Henderson State	at Ouachita Baptist (8-2)
Nebraska Kearney	Northeastern State (2-8)
Southeastern Oklahoma	East Central (6-4)
Washburn	Missouri Southern (3-7)
Ouachita Baptist	Henderson State (9-1)

A few thoughts on the playoff picture.

All eyes this week are on the Battle of the Ravine between Henderson State and Ouachita Baptist. Henderson State is into the playoffs with a win. If Ouachita Baptist wins, the playoff picture gets as murky as the Missouri River. A Ouachita Baptist win paired with a win by Southeastern Oklahoma would put five teams with two losses and only two playoff spots available (Henderson State, Ouachita Baptist, Southeastern Oklahoma, Nebraska Kearney and Washburn). In this scenario, I believe Nebraska Kearney and Southeastern Oklahoma would get into the playoffs. I doubt the committee takes three MIAA teams to one GAC team and vice versa. Nebraska Kearney gets the nod over Washburn due to head to head results. Now Henderson State, Ouachita Baptist and Southeastern Oklahoma all went 1-1 against each other. I give Southeastern Oklahoma the nod because they beat Harding giving them the best win of the group.

Now there is a possibility that East Central upsets Southeastern Oklahoma and knocks them out of the playoffs. If that happens, the winner of Ouachita Baptist and Henderson State will make the playoffs along with Nebraska Kearney.

The only way Washburn Washburn makes the playoffs is if Northeastern State upsets Nebraska Kearney. I would not hold my breath on that happening.

Ok, so that is the bubble talk in Super Region Three. Ferris State is a lock for the one seed and a first round bye. Lindenwood will be the five seed unless someone in front of them loses. Now the two, three and four seeds can change after this week. Let’s look at the current numbers for Harding, Grand Valley and Northwest Missouri.

Team	In region Win- Loss %	Division II Win- Loss %	DII Weighted OWP- OOWP	DII Results vs above .500	PI	Results vs Division Ranked Opponents
Harding	9-1 0.900	9-1 0.900	0.509	4-1 0.800	27.900	2-1 0.667
Grand Valley	6-1 0.857	7-1 0.875	0.565	4-1 0.800	28.000	0-1 0.000
NW Missouri	8-1 0.889	8-1 0.889	0.531	2-1 0.667	28.444	1-1 0.500

Guide: OWP-OOWP represents Opponents Winning Percentage and Opponents Opponents Winning Percentage. PI stands for Performance Indicator.

Now there is a road for Northwest Missouri to jump up to the two or three seed. I expect all three teams to win this Saturday. Harding’s resume will not improve after Saturday and will actually look worse because their Weighted OWP-OOWP will finish at .500 because of the GAC’s silo scheduling. Grand Valley State’s resume could be damaged by losses by Michigan Tech (vs Saginaw Valley 7-3) and Colorado State-Pueblo (at #15 Western Colorado 9-1). A Michigan Tech loss would drop them to 5-5 and would drop Grand Valley’s DII Results vs above .500 from 4-1 to

2-1. A loss by Colorado State-Pueblo would drop them to 6-5 and hurt Grand Valley’s weighted OWP-OOWP. Now Northwest Missouri would get another DII win vs an above .500 team by beating Emporia State. Missouri Western and Fort Hays could also get to 6-5 with wins over Lincoln and Pittsburg State respectively. This would improve Northwest Missouri’s DII Results vs above .500 from 2-1 to 5-1. That is a huge resume booster for Northwest Missouri. Add in that Northwest Missouri will have an OWP-OOWP over .500 because of the no contest with Lincoln and Northwest Missouri could jump over Harding and Grand Valley for the two seed. Here is how those numbers could look like with wins by Harding, Grand Valley, Northwest Missouri, Saginaw Valley, Western Colorado, Missouri Western and Fort Hays:

Team	In region Win- Loss %	Division II Win- Loss %	DII Weighted OWP- OOWP	DII Results vs above .500	PI	Results vs Division Ranked Opponents
Harding	10-1 0.909	10-1 0.909	0.500	4-1 0.800	???	2-1 0.667
Grand Valley	7-1 0.875	8-1 0.889	???	2-1 0.667	???	0-1 0.000
NW Missouri	9-1 0.900	9-1 0.900	>0.500	5-1 0.833	???	1-1 0.500

Also, keep an eye on the final spot of the regional rankings if Ouachita Baptist and/or Southeastern Oklahoma lose. A team like Saginaw Valley or Pittsburg State could sneak into the final spot and help Grand Valley or Northwest Missouri while hurting Harding.

Also these rankings are quite fluid. The final rankings have no correlation to this week’s rankings. Also, just because a team makes the playoffs in Super Region Three does not mean they will stay in Super Region Three. Due to travel, a team can be sent to another region to minimize charter flights in the first two rounds. The top four seeds will host games in Super Region Three but the last three seeds get in as at-large bids and can be shifted around to minimize travel.

My prediction:

Ferris State
Northwest Missouri
Harding
Grand Valley
Lindenwood
Nebraska Kearney
Southeastern Oklahoma
Washburn
Ouachita Baptist
Henderson State

Grand Valley should host Lindenwood in the first round either way, it makes the most sense with the travel rule. You will most likely see a Hardin vs Henderson State/Ouachita Baptist/Southeastern Oklahoma matchup in the first round too. Inter-conferences matchups in the first round stink but there is no way around it with the travel rule. Nebraska Kearney will either play at Northwest Missouri again (gross) or will get shipped to Super Region Four and a team like Minnesota Duluth will play at Northwest Missouri.

Week Ten Recap

#23 Washburn 28 Pittsburg State 26

This game epitomized MIAA football in 2021. Two blocked field goals, five turnovers, a defensive score, a sky kick fumble, a quarterback change at halftime and questionable officiating. Here is the game-winning block field goal by Washburn’s Jace Williams https://twitter.com/DevinAlbertson/status/1457088801478750210?s=20. I was able to drive down to Pittsburg to watch this entertaining game. First of all, I love Carnie Smith Stadium. It is the crown jewel of MIAA stadiums. It was a tough loss for Pittsburg State that knocked them out of playoff contention. However, for Brian Wright’s first full year at the helm for the Gorillas, I believe they are a year ahead of schedule. The program is in great hands. For Washburn, their playoff hopes are still on life support. But the Ichabods will at least have their choice of bowl games.

#5 Northwest Missouri 49 Missouri Southern 7

Missouri Southern had 77 yards of total offense last Saturday. Northwest Missouri’s only negative was five turnovers on offense. Mike Hohensee had an efficient day passing, going 18 of 22 for 264 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Al McKeller was his normal, beast-mode self with 25 carries for 140 yards and three touchdowns, including his last carry where he went through the soul of a Missouri Southern defender on his way to the end zone. https://twitter.com/Almckeller2/status/1457783686170959882?s=20

#24 Nebraska Kearney 37 Central Oklahoma 22

Nebraska Kearney jumped out to a 21-3 lead and held off Central Oklahoma to get a tough road win. TJ Davis ran for 179 yards and a touchdown, but was only 4 of 12 passing for 147 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. The Lopers have to figure out their passing attack and secondary if they want to make a deep playoff push. Keats Calhoon had a nice day passing for Central Oklahoma, going 25 of 45 for 301 yards.

Missouri Western 59 Central Missouri 28

Missouri Western set a school record with 687 yards of total offense. The most impressive part was their balance, 344 yards passing and 343 yards rushing. Central Missouri has been a complete disappointment in 2021 but the Mules defense has been atrocious. This was the same Missouri Western offense that was punchless for half the season. Missouri Western can finish with a winning record with a win at Lincoln this week. Central Missouri will need to beat Central Oklahoma to get to four wins.

Fort Hays 64 Northeastern State 6

Fort Hays dominated this game from start to finish, out gaining Northeastern State on the ground 334 to 21.

Emporia State 56 Lincoln 21

Emporia State was up 35-0 at halftime and 56-7 after the third quarter. This win clinched Garin Higgins’ seventh winning season in the last nine MIAA seasons. Higgins has done a great job in Emporia. Emporia State can play spoiler this Saturday and have a shot at a bowl game.

Last week: 5-1

Season: 42-17

MIAA Week Eleven Power Rankings

Northwest Missouri State --
Nebraska Kearney --
Washburn +1
Pittsburg State -1
Emporia State --
Missouri Western --
Fort Hays State +2
Central Oklahoma --
Missouri Southern -2
Central Missouri --
Northeastern State --
Lincoln --

Week Eleven Games

Emporia State (6-4) at #5 Northwest Missouri (9-1)

Saturday, 1:30pm

All-time: Northwest Missouri leads 34-2

2019: Northwest Missouri won 34-23

	Emporia State	Northwest Missouri
Points Scored	33.7	37.8
Points Allowed	26.7	9.3
Pass Yards	310.5	251.0
Pass Yards Allowed	275.8	177.8
Rush Yards	147.7	221.4
Rush Yards Allowed	114.7	38.4
Total Offense	458.2	472.4
Total Defense	390.5	216.2

Northwest Missouri has won 27 straight games over Emporia State in this series. The last time Emporia State beat Northwest Missouri was 1994 in Maryville by the score of 41-26. I expect Northwest Missouri to extend that streak to 28 games. Mike Hohensee and company will take better care of the ball this week and Al McKeller will run his way to the MIAA regular season rushing title. Emporia State is built similarly to Washburn who gave Northwest Missouri their only loss of the year. A strong run defense, opportunistic defense and a strong passing attack on offense. Northwest Missouri is healthy at quarterback now though and are peaking at the right time. The Bearcats cruise to a win, the first outright MIAA title for Rich Wright and the first outright MIAA title since 2016, the last year Northwest Missouri won a national championship. A win would also clinch the 25th trip to playoffs, the 17th straight trip. Both are Division II records.

Northwest Missouri 38 Emporia State 13

Pittsburg State (7-3) at Fort Hays (5-5)

Saturday, 1pm

All-time: Pittsburg State leads 46-23-9

2019: Fort Hays won 41-40

	Pittsburg State	Fort Hays
Points Scored	31.4	32.5
Points Allowed	19.0	19.4
Pass Yards	251.0	299.8
Pass Yards Allowed	214.9	212.5
Rush Yards	159.9	166.0
Rush Yards Allowed	119.9	136.8
Total Offense	410.9	465.8
Total Defense	334.8	349.3

I talked about the importance of this game a bit when I discussed the regional rankings. This game could be a big letdown game for Pittsburg State after losing to Washburn last week and missing out on the playoffs. Fort Hays is trying to salvage a winning season and could get a bowl game invite. Mak Sexton’s status for the game is still unknown. However, Chad Dodson came in and played well in relief duty against Washburn last week. Chance Fuller and Adrian Soto both have big games and set the groundwork for a bounce back season in 2022. This should be a fantastic football game that has a major impact on the regional rankings despite both teams being out of the playoff mix.

Fort Hays 27 Pittsburg State 24

Northeastern State (2-8) at #21 Nebraska Kearney (8-2)

Saturday, 12pm

All-time: Nebraska Kearney leads

2019: Nebraska Kearney won

	Northeastern State	Nebraska Kearney
Points Scored	14.6	34.3
Points Allowed	45.6	24.8
Pass Yards	185.3	203.7
Pass Yards Allowed	282.9	245.2
Rush Yards	87.6	258.7
Rush Yards Allowed	223.9	158.4
Total Offense	272.9	462.4
Total Defense	506.8	403.6

Northeastern State has a terrible run defense and have been lifeless on offense for the second half of the year. That is not a great recipe with Nebraska Kearney and TJ Davis on the schedule. I doubt TJ Davis plays deep into the game because Nebraska Kearney runs away with it early. Nebraska Kearney can clinch their first playoff berth since joining the MIAA and their first appearance since 2011 with a win.

Nebraska Kearney 63 Northeastern State 10

Missouri Southern (3-7) at #19 Washburn (8-2)

Saturday, 1pm

All-time: Washburn leads 26-21-1

2019: Washburn won 49-19

	Missouri Southern	Washburn
Points Scored	20.6	33.8
Points Allowed	30.9	20.5
Pass Yards	199.2	270.1
Pass Yards Allowed	211.8	231.0
Rush Yards	140.6	151.6
Rush Yards Allowed	208.8	114.1
Total Offense	339.8	421.7
Total Defense	420.6	345.1

Missouri Southern is an improved team, especially on defense. However, The Missouri Southern offense is still a work in progress and I do not believe they can score enough points here to pull off the upset. Washburn is still playing for a potential playoff berth and their best season since 2011. That year the Ichabods finished tied second in the MIAA, made the playoffs and finished 10-3. Mitch Shurig leads Washburn to a win in his last game playing for his father in Topeka.

Washburn 31 Missouri Southern 17

Central Oklahoma (4-6) at Central Missouri (3-7)

Saturday, 1pm

All-time: Central Missouri leads 6-2

2019: Central Missouri won 44-26

	Central Oklahoma	Central Missouri
Points Scored	25.6	29.7
Points Allowed	24.6	33.5
Pass Yards	210.5	328.3
Pass Yards Allowed	214.7	291.9
Rush Yards	143.2	110.2
Rush Yards Allowed	166.9	209.2
Total Offense	353.7	438.5
Total Defense	381.6	501.1

Central Oklahoma has the better defense and has been more consistent this season. Logan Twehous and Cameron Saunders have been electric for the Central Missouri offense this season but I cannot trust the Central Missouri defense this year. Saunders does have his eyes on a Central Missouri record for receiving yards in a season. Saunders currently sits at 1,316 yards, he needs 143 receiving yards to pass Jamorris Warren (2010) for the school record. Something to keep an eye on for a game with no playoff implications.

Central Oklahoma 21 Central Missouri 17

Missouri Western (5-5) at Lincoln (0-9)

Saturday, 11am

All-time: Missouri Western leads 4-0

2019: Missouri Western won 71-8

	Missouri Western	Lincoln
Points Scored	33.3	20.3
Points Allowed	31.8	62.9
Pass Yards	235.0	201.3
Pass Yards Allowed	302.5	285.9
Rush Yards	187.2	135.4
Rush Yards Allowed	135.0	279.6
Total Offense	422.2	336.8
Total Defense	437.5	565.4

Missouri Western should roll to a victory in Jefferson City. Lincoln has the worst scoring defense, second worst total defense and third worst rushing defense in all of Division II. Missouri Western was able to roll over Central Missouri’s defense last week and Lincoln is even worse on that side of the ball. Missouri Western gets a big win and finishes the season with a winning record and in the hunt for a bowl game.

Missouri Western 56 Lincoln 7

BONUS CONTENT:

A quick shout out to Bryon Ramos, the columnist for the GLVC for doing the leg work on this information. He is working on a new metric called IPR. Ramos was looking for a way to quantify the “eye test” when looking at football teams. Ramos wanted to look at a team’s ability to impose their will on an opponent. The Defensive rating can best be explained in how opposing team's offenses normally perform against that team's defense compared to how they usually perform. So if a team has a .25, it means they've generally held teams to about 75% of their normal production. If they have a (-.25), then opposing teams have generally performed about 25% better than they usually do when facing that defense. The same goes for the offense, except in reverse. Take a look at what Ramos came up with:

Offense IPR:

Rank	Team	Conference	Offensive IPR
1	Ferris State	GLIAC	0.60
2	Grand Valley	GLIAC	0.43
3	Henderson State	GAC	0.33
4	Harding	GAC	0.29
5	Nebraska Kearney	MIAA	0.26
6	Northwest Missouri	MIAA	0.25
7	Oklahoma Baptist	GAC	0.24
8	Southeastern Oklahoma	GAC	0.20
9	Lindenwood	GLVC	0.19
10	Missouri Western	MIAA	0.19
11	Indianapolis	GLVC	0.17
12	Saginaw Valley	GLIAC	0.13
13	Washburn	MIAA	0.12
14	Ouachita Baptist	GAC	0.11
15	Emporia State	MIAA	0.10
16	Truman State	GLVC	0.09
17	Missouri S&T	GLVC	0.07
18	Fort Hays	MIAA	0.07
19	Quincy	GLVC	0.07
20	Pittsburg State	MIAA	0.06

Defense IPR:

Rank	Team	Conference	Defensive IPR
1	Northwest Missouri	MIAA	0.57
2	Harding	GAC	0.44
3	Ouachita Baptist	GAC	0.28
4	Washburn	MIAA	0.25
5	Pittsburg State	MIAA	0.24
6	Grand Valley	GLIAC	0.23
7	Fort Hays	MIAA	0.23
8	Saginaw Valley	GLIAC	0.22
9	Indianapolis	GLVC	0.20
10	Truman State	GLVC	0.18
11	Michigan Tech	GLIAC	0.17
12	Ferris State	GLIAC	0.15
13	Davenport	GLIAC	0.14
14	Nebraska Kearney	MIAA	0.14
15	Lindenwood	GLVC	0.14
16	Southeastern Oklahoma	GAC	0.14
17	Central Oklahoma	MIAA	0.11
18	Henderson State	GAC	0.08
19	East Central	GAC	0.06
20	Emporia State	MIAA	0.04

Total IPR:

Rank	Team	Conference	Total IPR
1	Northwest Missouri	MIAA	0.41
2	Ferris State	GLIAC	0.38
3	Harding	GAC	0.36
4	Grand Valley	GLIAC	0.33
5	Henderson State	GAC	0.21
6	Nebraska Kearney	MIAA	0.20
7	Ouachita Baptist	GAC	0.19
8	Indianapolis	GLVC	0.19
9	Washburn	MIAA	0.18
10	Saginaw Valley	GLIAC	0.17
11	Southeastern Oklahoma	GAC	0.17
12	Lindenwood	GLVC	0.17
13	Pittsburg State	MIAA	0.15
14	Fort Hays	MIAA	0.15
15	Truman State	GLVC	0.13
16	Emporia State	MIAA	0.07
17	Oklahoma Baptist	GAC	0.06
18	Missouri Western	MIAA	0.04
19	Michigan Tech	GLIAC	0.01
20	Wayne State (Mich)	GLIAC	-0.02

These numbers confirm the general consensus around Super Region Three. The top four teams are all strong and have a legit chance to win the region. The next eight teams or so are bunched together and could beat up on each other as they have all year long.