November 6th, 2019 8:00pm
The second regional rankings were released Monday afternoon. Here is what they looked like:
Rk | Team | Region | Overall | DII Weighted OWP-OOWP | DII Record on Road | DII Results vs .500 or better |
1 | Ferris State | 8-0 | 9-0 | 0.544 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
2 | Central Missouri | 9-0 | 9-0 | 0.507 | 5-0 | 4-0 |
3 | Ouachita Baptist | 9-0 | 9-0 | 0.472 | 5-0 | 3-0 |
4 | Harding | 8-1 | 8-1 | 0.544 | 3-1 | 4-1 |
5 | Indianapolis | 7-1 | 7-1 | 0.518 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
6 | Grand Valley St. | 6-1 | 8-1 | 0.460 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
7 | Northwest Mo. St. | 8-1 | 8-1 | 0.438 | 4-1 | 2-1 |
8 | Missouri Western | 7-2 | 7-2 | 0.531 | 5-0 | 2-2 |
9 | Henderson State | 8-1 | 8-1 | 0.443 | 4-1 | 2-1 |
10 | Fort Hays State | 7-2 | 7-2 | 0.513 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
Remaining games for each team:
Rk | Team | Week 10 | Week 11 |
1 | Ferris State | Grand Valley (8-1) | BYE |
2 | Central Missouri | Lincoln (1-8) | NW Missouri (8-1) |
3 | Ouachita Baptist | Ark-Monticello (5-4) | Henderson St. (8-1) |
4 | Harding | at SE Ok. St. (1-8) | at Ark. Tech (3-6) |
5 | Indianapolis | Truman State (6-1) | Lake Erie (2-6) |
6 | Grand Valley St. | at Ferris State (9-0) | Wayne St. (6-3) |
7 | Northwest Mo. St. | at Fort Hays (7-2) | Central MO (9-0) |
8 | Missouri Western | Neb-Kearney (5-4) | at Lincoln (1-8) |
9 | Henderson State | Southern Ark. (7-2) | at Ouachita (9-0) |
10 | Fort Hays State | NW Missouri (8-1) | at Northeastern St. (0-9) |
The GLVC will be a one team league. The winner of the Indianapolis-Truman State game should make the top seven. If Truman State wins but loses to Urbana, then their is a chance the GLVC gets left out entirely. That leaves six spots for the GAC, GLIAC and MIAA to fight over. Ferris State and Central Missouri are locks to make the playoffs. Harding has an extremely favorable schedule and should finish the year on a 10 game winning streak to finish 10-1. This leaves just three spots. I still believe Ouachita Baptist is the best team in the GAC and will finish the year 11-0, but their last two games are all against teams with over .500 records in Arkansas-Monticello and Henderson State. If Ouachita Baptist wins out, I believe they will be the three seed. So that leaves two spots for Grand Valley State, Northwest Missouri State, Fort Hays State, Missouri Western and Henderson State. I do not believe the MIAA is strong enough this year to get three teams into the playoffs, so I am penciling in Grand Valley State even if the Lakers lose to Ferris State. We will have to wait and see how Northwest Missouri, Fort Hays State and Missouri Western close out the year to sort out who will make the playoffs. The Bearcats control their own destiny while the Tigers and Griffons need help. One scenario could get three GAC teams into the playoffs. That scenario entails Harding winning out, Ouachita Baptist beating Arkansas-Monticello and losing to rival Henderson State and Henderson State winning out. In this scenario, the three GAC teams would all finish 10-1. In this scenario, Grand Valley State or Northwest Missouri would have to lose at least once.
My prediction for the playoff teams: Ferris State, Central Missouri, Ouachita Baptist, Indianapolis, Harding, Northwest Missouri State and Grand Valley State. The Bearcats and Lakers both sneak into the playoffs with two losses.
Week Nine Games
#14 Northwest Missouri State (8-1) at #24 Fort Hays State (7-2)
All-time series record: Northwest Missouri State leads 19-14-1
Last year: Fort Hays State won 17-16
Fort Hays State has won two straight over the Bearcats, both games by one point in Maryville. The top two scoring defenses meet in Hays, Kansas. These teams have been the top two scoring defenses in the MIAA for the last four seasons now. The Bearcats have not lost in Hays since 1977, Northwest Missouri is 6-0 in that stretch.
In this years game, I see two big keys to watch. The first one is the Bearcat secondary against Fuller and company. Northwest Missouri has the fourth best passing defense in the MIAA but have not faced two of the best passing offenses in the MIAA in Fort Hays State and Central Missouri. The Tigers average 342 yards passing per game this year and Chance Fuller might be the best thrower of the football in the MIAA. While the Bearcats passing defense numbers look good, if you watch the Bearcats play you can see the secondary is the weak link on defense. The second key is Bearcat quarterback Braden Wright. Wright will need to have a big day for the Bearcats to win in Hays. Wright has been inconsistent in 2019 and it has hurt the offense. If Wright is not effective through the air, the Tigers will be able to stack the box to stop Justin Rankin, Isaiah Strayhorn and Wright on the ground.
My head says to go with Fort Hays State, but my gut says the Bearcats find a way to win on the road. My mind can play tricks on me so I am going to go with my gut.
Massy Prediction: Northwest Missouri 32 Fort Hays State 27
My Prediction: Northwest Missouri 23 Fort Hays State 21
Nebraska-Kearney (5-4) at #25 Missouri Western (7-2)
All-time series record: Nebraska-Kearney leads 17-12
Last time: Missouri Western won 25-17
Fun fact for this matchup. Nebraska-Kearney has never scored more than 21 points against Missouri Western since joining the MIAA in 2012. Missouri Western has scored at least 28 points in every game this season. I have enjoyed watching the Griffon offense put up big numbers this year with their balanced attack. Nebraska-Kearney should have upset Central Missouri last week and did upset Northwest Missouri a couple weeks ago. This Lopers team is dangerous and the Griffons are in must-win mode. I think this game will look similar to last week’s Central Missouri-Nebraska-Kearney game, high scoring and dramatic.
Massy Prediction: Missouri Western 35 Nebraska-Kearney 27
My Prediction: Missouri Western 44 Nebraska-Kearney 42
Pittsburg State (5-4) at Washburn (4-5)
All-time series record: Pittsburg State leads 63-25-1
Last year: Washburn won 40-23
Washburn gets Pittsburg State at a good time. The Gorillas are on a four game losing streak and the wheels are falling off the season. A loss to Washburn could be the final nail in the coffin for the Pittsburg State coaching staff. Washburn’s wins are against the four worst teams in the MIAA in Lincoln, Northeastern State, Missouri Southern and Emporia State. The Ichabods have won three of four. I do believe Pittsburg State is the more talented team, but the Gorillas spirit may have been broken last week.
Massy Prediction: Pittsburg State 35 Washburn 30
My Prediction: Washburn 38 Pittsburg State 35
Lincoln (1-7) at #11 Central Missouri (9-0)
All-time series record: Central Missouri leads 23-7
Last time: Central Missouri won 49-6 in 2011
The Mules have won 18 straight in the series and should have no problem making it 19. Will Central Missouri score 70? That is the biggest question coming into this game.
Fun fact from Randy Speer of the Warrensburg Daily-Star: Central Missouri quarterback Brook Bolles had more passing yards (506) and passing touchdowns (seven)in a single game against Missouri Southern than Lincoln has on the entire season, 499 yards and 6 touchdowns.
Massy Prediction: Central Missouri 56 Lincoln 13
My Prediction: Central Missouri 63 Lincoln 10
Emporia State (2-7) at Missouri Southern (2-7)
All-time series record: Tied at 22-22
Last year: Emporia State won 48-0
These two teams are both 2-7 but are polar opposites. Emporia State plays good defense but has struggled mightily on defense. While Missouri Southern can score but cannot stop a nosebleed. The Lions have given up 39 or more points seven times this year. I do not think Emporia State will get to 40, but the Hornets will make less mistakes than the Lions and pull out the win.
Massy Prediction: Emporia State 35 Missouri Southern 28
My Prediction: Emporia State 31 Missouri Southern 30
Northeastern State (0-9) at Central Oklahoma (4-5)
All-time series record: Central Oklahoma leads 49-27-2
Last year: Central Oklahoma won 62-0
Central Oklahoma is the epitome of an average team and the Bronchos should win this game by 50. Northeastern State might not score 100 points this season. The Riverhawks currently sit at 86 points scored and have Central Oklahoma and Fort Hays State left. Central Oklahoma can finish above .500 and on a four game winning streak if the Bronchos can beat Northeastern State and Emporia State to end the year.
Massy Prediction: Central Oklahoma 52 Northeastern State 7
My Prediction: Central Oklahoma 59 Northeastern State 10