MIAA Week Eight Preview

October 23rd, 2019 9:00pm

Week Eight Preview

First, let’s take a look at the playoff picture. There are 16 teams with two losses or less left.

GAC: Ouachita Baptist (7-0), Harding (6-1), Henderson State (6-1), Southern Arkansas (6-1) and Arkansas-Monticello (5-2)

GLIAC: Ferris State (7-0) and Grand Valley State (6-1)

GLVC: Indianapolis (6-0), Truman State (6-1) and Missouri S&T (5-2)

MIAA: Central Missouri (7-0), Northwest Missouri State (6-1), Fort Hays State (5-2), Missouri Western (5-2), Nebraska-Kearney (5-2) and Pittsburg State (5-2)

In the GAC, Arkansas-Monticello is all but out of the playoff picture at this point. The Boll Weevils still have to play Henderson State, Ouachita Baptist and Southern Arkansas in the last three weeks, they will not win out. Harding has the easiest schedule remaining of the GAC contenders. I like Ouachita Baptist and Harding to finish the year 11-0 and 10-1 respectively. I doubt a 9-2 GAC team gets into the playoffs over a 9-2 Grand Valley or 9-2 MIAA team.

In the GLIAC, if Grand Valley beats Ferris State then both teams are playoff locks. If Ferris State beats Grand Valley, the Lakers go on the bubble while Ferris State is a lock. I do believe a 9-2 Grand Valley team will be in the playoffs.

In the GLVC, I expect Indianapolis to beat Missouri S&T this week and officially eliminate the Miners from the playoffs. For a team to get into the playoffs, that team will need one loss or fewer because it is the weakest conference in the region. I think Indianapolis will go undefeated and be the lone GLVC representative in the playoffs.

The MIAA should get two teams into the playoffs. Figuring out which two teams might give someone a migraine, but I am going to try to simplify things. Let’s break down each team’s path to the postseason.

Central Missouri: Lock unless the Mules absolutely collapse down the stretch. I think Central Missouri could go 2-2 down the stretch and still make the playoffs, but it would get dicey for the Mules. If the Mules go 3-1 or 4-0, they will be playing in the playoffs.

Northwest Missouri: The Bearcats still control their own destiny. If Northwest Missouri wins out, the Bearcats would be a playoff lock and could host a playoff game because they would have beaten Fort Hays and Central Missouri. If the Bearcats go 1-1 against Fort Hays and Central Missouri, I believe Northwest Missouri will squeak into the playoffs. If Northwest loses to both Fort Hays and Central Missouri, then they will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2003.

Fort Hays: The Tigers will need to win out (means beating Nebraska-Kearney and Northwest Missouri at home) to make the playoffs. The Tigers will also need Missouri Western to lose one game as well because the Griffons have the head to head win at Fort Hays back in week two. If both teams finish 9-2, the edge goes to Missouri Western. There is a scenario where Fort Hays, Missouri Western and Northwest Missouri State all finish 9-2. In that scenario, the committee will have to split hairs to decide who to take. I would think Northwest Missouri would get the nod in that case.

Missouri Western: The Griffons will need to win out and have Northwest Missouri State lose twice. 

Nebraska-Kearney: The Lopers need to win out and have Northwest Missouri State lose one game. The Lopers can build their resume in a hurry in the next three weeks if they beat Fort Hays, Central Missouri and Missouri Western after beating Northwest Missouri last week. Nebraska-Kearney controls its destiny more than the other 5-2 teams, but also have a brutal schedule ahead. I just cannot see the Lopers running the table.

Pittsburg State: The Gorillas need to win out and get some help to make the playoffs. I just do not see Pittsburg State righting the ship at this point and rallying to steal the second MIAA bid. The Gorillas playoff hopes could end this weekend at Central Missouri.

My projected playoff teams: Ferris State, Ouachita Baptist, Central Missouri, Indianapolis, Harding, Grand Valley State and Northwest Missouri State.

Pittsburg State (5-2) at #13 Central Missouri (7-0)

All-time: Pittsburg State leads 43-11-2

Last year: Pittsburg State won 48-28

Pittsburg State is in the middle of a midseason talespin while Central Missouri is looking to keep its season perfect. I do not see Pittsburg State slowing down the Mules red hot offense. However, despite the doom and gloom coming out of Pittsburg, Kansas, the Gorillas are still in the playoff hunt. If the Gorillas can upset the Mules and beat Missouri Western next Saturday, Pittsburg State would be right in the middle of the playoff race. I do not see that happening though because of constant mistakes that keep showing up every game for Pittsburg State.

I will be in Warrensburg for this game, I am excited to see the Mules offense live for the first time this year.

Massey prediction: Central Missouri 41 Pittsburg State 38

My prediction: Central Missouri 48 Pittsburg State 35

Emporia State (2-5) at Missouri Western (5-2)

All-time: Emporia State leads 5-3

Last year: Missouri Western won 42-28

Emporia State gave Central Missouri all they could handle last week at home and this is the last game the Hornets play against a team above .500. Emporia State has beaten the bad teams on their schedule and lost close games to the good teams on their schedule. Missouri Western might be the hottest team in the MIAA right now. The Griffons are struggling a bit on defense right now which is concerning going into a game like this. Emporia State has shown that they can force teams to play a low scoring game this year. I believe the Hornets will do the same to Missouri Western, but the Emporia State offense falters. Griffons win.

Massey prediction: Missouri Western 37 Emporia State 27

My prediction: Missouri Western 30 Emporia State 24

Central Oklahoma (2-5) at Washburn (3-4)

All-time: Central Oklahoma leads 5-3

Last year: Central Oklahoma won 34-0

I was not high on Washburn for much of the season. I even picked Missouri Southern to beat the Ichabods (how dumb was that?). I like Washburn to beat Central Oklahoma this week. Washburn has the better quarterback, better defense and a slightly better coach. I do not see a path to a road victory for Central Oklahoma. Washburn takes a big early lead, Central Oklahoma storms back but comes up short.

Massey prediction: Central Oklahoma 35 Washburn 33

My prediction: Washburn 38 Central Oklahoma 31

Missouri Southern (1-6) at Northeastern State (0-7)

All-time: Missouri Southern leads 5-2

Last year: Missouri Southern won 24-19

Missouri Southern is the more talented and explosive team in this game. Northeastern State just is not a competent football this year. Missouri Southern played as bad as they could have in the first quarter last week against Washburn, I believe the Lions will right the ship this week.

Massey prediction: Missouri Southern 46 Northeastern State 24

My prediction: Missouri Southern 52 Northeastern State 24

Lincoln (0-7) at #16 Northwest Missouri State (7-0)

All-time: Northwest Missouri leads 16-6-1

Last time: Northwest Missouri won 73-7 in 2011

This is Lincoln’s first trip to Maryville since 1987. This is the Bearcats homecoming game, it should not be much of a game. This feels like a game where the offense looks like world beaters. The defense will look to shutdown the Blue Tigers rushing attack after struggling against Nebraska-Kearney last week. Lincoln literally cannot throw the ball so the Bearcats can tee off on the Lincoln running game.

Massey prediction: Northwest Missouri State 48 Lincoln 3

My prediction: Northwest Missouri State 52 Lincoln 17

Nebraska-Kearney (5-2) at Fort Hays State (5-2) 

All-time: Fort Hays State leads 7-0

Last year: Fort Hays State won 29-26

As good as last week’s win was for Nebraska-Kearney, Fort Hays State brings a completely different set of problems. The Tigers have one of the best passing attacks in the MIAA and have a chance to attack the Lopers defense. Nebraska-Kearney’s pass defense numbers are good, but they haven’t played Fort Hays State, Missouri Western or Central Missouri yet. I think Nebraska-Kearney will be able to move the ball on the ground against Fort Hays State, but not effective enough to win at Hays. The Tigers passing attack will hit on a couple big pass plays and win this game.

Massey prediction: Fort Hays State 21 Nebraska-Kearney 14

My prediction: Fort Hays State 28 Nebraska-Kearney 24