MIAA Week Seven Preview

October 16th, 2019 9:00pm

Week Seven Preview

Before we look at week seven in the MIAA, let’s take a look around the region to see what teams are still in playoff contention. I believe two losses will be the max for the seven playoff teams this year. This now eliminates 21 of the 41 teams in the region from playoff contention right away. 

I already eliminated 13 teams two weeks ago in Arkansas Tech, East Central, Lincoln, Lindenwood, McKendree, Missouri Southern, Northeastern State, Northern State, Northwood, Southeastern Oklahoma State, Southern Nazarene, Washburn and William Jewell. Now we can add an additional eight teams in Central Oklahoma, Emporia State, Northwestern Oklahoma State, Oklahoma Baptist, Quincy, Southwest Baptist, Southwestern Oklahoma State and Wayne State. 

Now let’s take a look at the eight teams with two losses on the year. These teams are in serious jeopardy of dropping out of the playoff race. These teams are Arkansas-Monticello, Ashland, Davenport, Fort Hays State, Michigan Tech, Missouri Western, Nebraska-Kearney and Saginaw Valley If any of those eight teams lose one game, they can kiss the playoffs goodbye.

The one loss teams are in good shape. They have a bit more wiggle room going into the next five weeks.There are seven one loss teams: Grand Valley State, Harding, Henderson State, Pittsburg State, Missouri S&T, Southern Arkansas and Truman State.

Finally, the five undefeated teams after four weeks: Central Missouri, Ferris State,  Indianapolis, Northwest Missouri State and Ouachita Baptist. 

Realistically, the 12 teams left with one loss or less have the best odds of making the playoffs. But with five games remaining, 20 teams are still alive in the playoff hunt.

My way too early projected playoff teams: Ferris State, Ouachita Baptist, Central Missouri, Indianapolis, Northwest Missouri State, Harding and Grand Valley State. 

Missouri Western (4-2) at Central Oklahoma (2-4)

All-time: Missouri Western leads 6-3

Last year: Central Oklahoma won 17-16

Central Oklahoma has been one of the most disappointing teams in the MIAA this season while Missouri Western has been one of the pleasant surprises. The Bronchos started the year 2-1 and have dropped 3 straight, the Griffons started 1-2 (brutal opening schedule) and have won three in a row. I expect these trends to continue in week seven. I like the Griffons balanced and explosive attack on offense to be enough for a Missouri Western win.

Massey prediction: Missouri Western 35 Central Oklahoma 28

My prediction: Missouri Western 41 Central Oklahoma 27

Fort Hays State (4-2) at #21 Pittsburg State (5-1)

All-time: Pittsburg State leads 46-21-9

Last year: Fort Hays State won 50-21

This is a game I will be keeping a close eye on. I think this is the season is on the line for both of these teams. While a second loss would not automatically eliminate Pittsburg State from playoff contention, it would erase the Gorillas margin of error. Pittsburg State still has games at Central Missouri and at home against Missouri Western. A 5-0 start could end up in a 7-4 or 6-5 season. That would be a disaster. After watching Pittsburg State in person, I still like the talent they are putting on the field. I just don’t believe the scheme decision is optimizing that talent.

Fort Hays is on a five game winning streak and has two major obstacles from a 9-2 season: Pittsburg State and Northwest Missouri State. A win on Saturday could propel the Tigers to an outside shot at the playoffs. I said it a few weeks ago, but the Tigers are too well coached not to figure things out and reel off a bunch of wins. 

This is a coaching mismatch, so give me Fort Hays on the road to win in the Jungle.

Massey prediction: Fort Hays State 24 Pittsburg State 23

My prediction: Fort Hays State 34 Pittsburg State 24

#15 Central Missouri (6-0) at Emporia State (2-4)

All-time: Central Missouri leads 40-20-4

Last year: Emporia State won 41-23

I do not believe Emporia State has the firepower to keep up with Central Missouri this year, not many teams do. The Hornets will have to play great defense and muck up the game to keep this game close. If the Hornets employ the same game plan as the Northwest Missouri game, they will have a shot.

That being said, I think the Mules will roll in this one. The combination of Brook Bolles and a strong running game is a nightmare to game plan for.

Massey prediction: Central Missouri 42 Emporia State 31

My prediction: Central Missouri 45 Emporia State 23

#6 Northwest Missouri State (6-0) at Nebraska-Kearney (4-2)

All-time: Northwest Missouri State leads 11-4

Last year: Northwest Missouri State won 27-13

The Bearcats are going for program win number 600 on Saturday. Northwest Missouri State’s overall program record is 599-402-33. The Bearcats will become the eighth Division II team to record 600 wins. The other seven are Pittsburg State (716), Tuskegee (693), Hillsdale (643), Carson-Newman (637), Central Oklahoma (635), Texas A&M-Kingsville (611) and West Chester (611). This game will be won on the ground. The Lopers have the number one rushing attack in the MIAA and the second best in Division II. The Bearcats have the best run defense in the MIAA and tied 9th in Division II. I believe Coach Wright will have the Northwest Missouri defense ready to stop the Lopers run game. My key to this game is the Bearcat rushing attack against Nebraska-Kearney. Northwest Missouri has the third best rushing attack in the MIAA (21st in Division II) while Nebraska-Keaney has the second best run defense in the MIAA (30th in Division II). If Northwest Missouri cannot move the ball against the Loper defense, this game could stay close well into the fourth quarter. Braden Wright had a nice game on the ground last week, but struggled through the air. Wright will need to make a couple big throws for the Bearcats to win this game.

Massey prediction: Northwest Missouri State 37 Nebraska-Kearney 14

My prediction: Northwest Missouri State 34 Nebraska-Kearney 20

Northeastern State (0-6) at Lincoln (0-6)

All-time: Tied 1-1

Last time: Lincoln won 42-33 in 2013.

It is Toilet Bowl 2019. The two winless teams in the MIAA square off in Jefferson City. I do not want to spend a lot of time thinking about this game. Give me Franklin Hosea and Lincoln rushing attack against the worst run defense in Division II football. Lincoln has the fourth worst run defense in the nation and allows nearly 70 yards less per game, that is how bad the Riverhawks run defense is in 2019.

Massey prediction: Lincoln 31 Northeastern State 30

My prediction: Lincoln 30 Northeastern State 24

Washburn (2-4) at Missouri Southern (1-5)

All-time: Washburn leads 25-21-1

Last year: Washburn won 63-7

Do you like offense? Then watch every Missouri Southern game you can. It is like watching Texas Tech in the Big XII. The Lions can score on pretty much anyone but also cannot stop a nosebleed. Washburn is a bit of the same as well this year. It will be fun watching Mitch Schurig and Jacob Park duel it out on Saturday in Joplin. I do not think Missouri Southern will keep turning the ball over at the rate the Lions have through six weeks. Give me the Lions in a mini upset.

Massey prediction: Washburn 44 Missouri Southern 34

My prediction: Missouri Southern 42 Washburn 41