SAC Playoff Preview-Round 1

November 22nd, 2024 12:00pm

It’s playoff time in D2 Football! There are three outstanding matchups in our super region this weekend, and several others across the country. Lots of questions to be answered. Is Kutztown going to keep up the PSAC dominance in SR1? Nobody outside the PSAC has won the region since 2018. Will Lenoir-Rhyne come out of nowhere again and keep it’s crown in SR2? SR4 will have a new look, as three-time regional champion Colorado Mines missed the dance entirely. And is somebody going to keep a furious Harding team from going back-to-back?  Who may play Cinderella?

As we wrapped up the 2024 SAC regular season, the all-conference teams were announced yesterday along with the award winners. Congratulations to all these outstanding men on their accomplishments this season, and I will highlight the all-conference teams more when I write a wrap up column, whenever the last SAC team is done playing.

Offensive Player of the Year: Dustin Noller (Limestone)*

Defensive Player of the Year: Marquise Fleming (Wingate)*

Offensive Freshman of the Year:Turk Daniels (Carson-Newman)

Defensive Freshman of the Year: E’Lla Boykin (Barton)

Jacobs Blocking Trophy: Erwil Anthony (Wingate)

Ken Sparks Coach of the Year: Rashaan Jordan (Wingate)

*-won the same award in 2023.

SAC Players of the Week

Offense: Cam Abshire (Emory & Henry): eight grabs for 158 yards and the two scores

Defense: Kai Russell (Wingate): 10 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, a sack and a forced fumble.

Special Teams: Caleb Bonesteel (Wingate): perfect 5-for-5 on field goals and an extra point

Last Week: 5-1

Season: 61-13

Virginia Union Panthers at Wingate Bulldogs

Location: Wingate, NC / 1 PM

Line: Wingate -4.5 / SP+: Wingate 26, Virginia Union 24.

Series: Wingate leads series, 2-0. (Wingate won the last meeting, 32-7, in 2022 playoffs)

Coach Alvin Parker (7^th season) and Virginia Union were unsure about their playoff chances heading into the CIAA championship last weekend, sitting in the number nine slot in last Monday’s regional rankings. But by defeating their rivals Virginia State, it helped them secure their 3^rd consecutive trip to the postseason. The Panthers have won seven of their last eight games and the back-to-back CIAA champions are hoping to pick up their first playoff win since 1986. The Panthers offense is led by the sensational Jada Byers (offensive player of the year in the CIAA) at running back. Byers, a Harlon Hill finalist previously, rushed for 1497 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2024. Byers is not much of a threat catching the ball out of the backfield, so that may be an advantage for Wingate. Mark Wright has been the man under center this year and has been extremely productive. Wright has completed nearly 67% of his attempts for 1965 yards, 18 touchdowns to just five interceptions. His top target is all-CIAA standout Reginald Vick Jr, who had 3 catches for 947 yards and nine touchdowns. Vick Jr. was one of three Panthers with double digit receptions and 200+ receiving yards this season (Ricky Key Jr. and 2^nd team all-CIAA tight end Kalen Carver). The offense is very high scoring, averaging over 40 points per game and racking up nearly 480 yards per game. The Panthers defense is solid, not great but certainly not bad by any stretch. Led by Shamar Graham’s team leading 80 tackles, Mike Jones (5.0 sacks) and all-CIAA Isaac Anderson (4.0 sacks), and Jalen Mayo (3 interceptions), the VUU defense gave up less than 300 yards per game and kept teams off the scoreboard. Only four times did they allow an opponent to pass 20 points in the ball game. OL Larry Jones Jr., K Brady Myers, DB William Davis, OL Mathias Nielsen, and P Marvin Holmes also were all-CIAA.

Coach Jordan (SAC Coach of the Year) and the Wingate Bulldogs are the #2 seed in the SR2 portion of the bracket. Fresh off their third SAC championship in program history, this is the fifth playoff appearance for the program in the past seven years, sixth total.  The Bulldogs are on a seven-game win streak, where they outscored their opponents 225-50. Wingate is guided by 16 All-SAC/All-Piedmont selections, including two-time SAC defensive player of the year Marquise Fleming. Fleming anchors arguably the best defense in the country (10^th in rush defense nationally, 5^th in scoring defense, 3^rd in passing defense, and 2^nd in total defense). The Bulldogs had four 1^st team all-SAC guys on defense (Fleming, Daniel Morrison, Kai Russell, and Dontorian Best), and another four on All-Piedmont (Darius Randolph, Brandon Perry, Dequan Mosley, and Mark Burks). Like West Alabama, the offense has made great strides this year and fully complement the defense. Erwil Anthony and Porfirio Acosta are two of the best OL in the nation, opening holes for O’Brien Barnett (95-528-5), Corey Siemer (67-336-3) and Ethan Wallace (45-273-4). Quarterback Brooks Bentley captains the offense that runs more often than their first-round opponent (almost 60%) and has had a terrific sophomore campaign (1586 yards, 56% completion rate, 12 touchdowns to five interceptions). Bentley has two very underrated wide receivers in Evan McCray (38-521-6) and Carlos Estronza (24-324-2). McCray is one of the most clutch receivers in the conference and Estronza is difficult to bring down in space. The pieces are all there for a deep run in Wingate.

Prediction: Wingate rolls to the 2^nd round.

Contrary to my colleagues at D2Football, I don’t see this game being as close as some project. These two faced off in an ugly playoff game in 2022. And while Virginia Union is more balanced than they’ve typically been, Wingate’s defense is so much better than anything the Panthers have faced this season. There is a massive gap between Kentucky State, Bluefield State, Lincoln and Bowie and Wingate. The only other top 30 defense they’ve faced was Johnson C. Smith and the Golden Bulls held them to 180 yards of total offense, and Byers to 47 on 19 carries. I also believe Wingate’s defense should be able to have success against the Panthers defense, and for the Bulldogs to handle business and win by 14-21 points.

Lenoir-Rhyne Bears at West Alabama Tigers

Location: Livingston, AL / 1 PM

Line: West Alabama -3.5 / SP+: West Alabama 24, Lenoir-Rhyne 19.

Series: West Alabama leads series, 2-0. (West Alabama won the last meeting, 36-32, in 2018)

Lenoir-Rhyne is making it’s 2^nd consecutive trip to the postseason, and 8^th in program history. The Bears closed their season on a two-game win streak and needed a walk off field goal against Anderson last weekend to get that win, likely that secured their playoff spot. This Bears team is different from last year, but not necessarily all in bad ways. The offense doesn’t seem to have that same ability to pile on points like they did at times in 2023, but the defense is still stout, and Coach Socha’s club has found ways to win however necessary. Jalen Ferguson runs the ship now, with Shawn White finally gone, and has taken a slight step backwards in year 2. Interceptions are up, the completion percentage is down (nearly 10%) and his rating has dropped 50 points. Part of that is guys they’ve lost. Songa Yates is a 1^st team all-SAC receiver and specialist (45 catches for 602 yards) and Adonis McDaniel is a playmaker as well (41 grabs for 663 yards). They’ll need big games from the other pass catching options to have a chance to upset UWA. The Bears have used a plethora of running backs this year after Zayvion Turner-Knox went down, and all three (Boyd, Fox and Roberson) have had some solid moments. The defense, despite losing all-American Andre Jefferson early, has still be very good. All-Piedmont selections Maddox Aprile, JT Black, Jaelin Willis (leading tackler) lead the front seven. Nic Cheeley is a guy in the back, and probably intercepted a pass as I typed this. There were some question marks about Lenoir-Rhyne heading into the postseason last year and they got white hot before running into Harding. I wonder if that happens again in 2024.

West Alabama returns to the playoffs after a six-year absence (2018) and does so as winners of four in a row. Co-GSC Coach of the Year Brett Gilliland (11^th season) would love to get his Tigers deep into the playoffs once again, like in 2017 when they reached the regional final. West Alabama had 14 players recognized as all-conference performers this season. Gilliland’s team tends to run the ball more than pass, approximately 57% run-43% pass. The offense is much better than what we’ve come to expect of West Alabama teams, which are usually anchored by strong defenses.  Bry Webb is the teams leading rusher (113 att., 475 yards, 5 touchdowns), but Devontae Causey (80-381-1), Brayden Jenkins (68-257-2) and quarterback Spencer Arceneaux (43-270-4) all have 250+ yards rushing this season and 40+ carries. Arceneaux has drastically improved in 2024 from 2023, completing 11% more of his passes. The Nebraska transfer has thrown for almost 1500 yards, 14 touchdowns to four interceptions and spreads the ball around. Three different Tigers options have 30+ catches in 2024: Khris Binion (40-516-5), Tyler Walker (32-369-4) and Caeleb Bass (30-283-6). The strength of West Alabama, as previously mentioned, has been their defense. And this year is no different. Ishmael Naylor led the team in tackles during the season (69) and he didn’t even make 1^st team All-GSC. Trevor Stanford, Issac Williams, Lamar Gray, Cody Sigler, Davonta Jackson, Trevor Lambert, the list goes on of the DUDES that the Tigers stack up on defense. Lambert leads the nation in sacks per game. The Tigers are talented and may finally have an offense that matches the defensive intensity needed to make a playoff run.

Prediction: West Alabama wins a low scoring game.

This is the game this weekend I have the least amount of confidence in. West Alabama has a slight edge on the defensive side of the ball and the offenses are pretty close except for UWA scoring advantage. What puts West Alabama over in my mind is their ability to keep teams out of the endzone and the turnover margin. Whatever team can get a bit of a lead and let their defense pin their ears back will be at a big advantage early. I like West Alabama to win this one, something like 21-19. But I wouldn’t be stunned at all if Lenoir-Rhyne found a way to win this one like they did last year against the SR2 teams. Especially if Ferguson can catch fire again and return to his 2023 form.

Carson-Newman Eagles at Miles Golden Bears

Location: Birmingham, AL / 1 PM

Line: Carson-Newman -2.5 / SP+: Miles 30, Carson-Newman 26.

Series: First Ever Meeting

Carson-Newman is making it’s first postseason appearance since 2019, as Coach Ingram’s crew got into the playoffs for the 17^th time in the D2 era. The Eagles dropped their game last week, 28-13, to Wingate in the SAC Championship. Nine Eagles received all-conference accolades of some sort, with all-everything defensive back Major Williams being the lone All-SAC guy. B-Back Jayden Sullins, OL Christian Jones, LS Andrew Bradshaw, DL Jacorey Long, LB Christian Hicks, LB Mekhi Brown and P Grayson Campbell also earned honors. Jones is the lone upper-class starter on the OL featuring 3 freshman and a sophomore. Sullins has been phenomenal down the stretch, eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark to go with ten scores. The Eagles also have two other backs with over 400 yards rushing in Cam Ferguson and Don Bradley. The Eagles don’t pass often, but when you do they’ve got some playmakers in Cade Meeks and Jeremiah Carroll. The one question for the Eagles offense is who will be under center. Five different quarterbacks have played this season, so who knows who will start there due to injuries. The defense has come into shape over the past month, holding their last three opponents under 275 yards of total offense and are giving up an average of 270 the past seven games. Hicks (leading tackler), Brown, Williams, Long and Cruz Temple live in the backfield and the depth on defense makes this top 25 defense tough.

Miles is making it’s third ever appearance in the D2 postseason, and SIAC Coach of the Year Sam Shade’s team may be as hot as any team in the nation. After starting the season 0-2 (0-1 vs. D2), the Golden Bears have rolled off nine wins in a row, including a good old fashion butt kicking to Clark Atlanta in the SIAC title game last weekend, 53-25. Miles tends to run the ball more than pass, 58%-42% on the season, with five different guys rushing at least 40 times. 2^nd team all-SIAC back Jonero Scott probably rushes for over 1K yards if he played more than seven games (112-609-5). Javonta Leatherwood (70-390-11) finds the end zone a ton, but don’t sleep on Roderick Thomas or Edward Osley either. And certainly, don’t take your eyes off quarterback Kamren Ivory. Ivory threw for 1392 yards, 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in eight games.  The offense is also anchored by two first team all-SIAC offensive lineman Christian Twymon and Jason Stovall; and first team tight end Travaunta Abner. The defense is led by defensive player of the year Lashon Young (40 tackles and eight interceptions), 1^st team all-SIAC Roc Dowdell (13 tackles for loss and seven sacks), and 2^nd teamers William Hardy (leading tackler with 65), JaMichael Rogers (seven sacks) and Cam Williams (three picks). This defense gets to the quarterback and forces turnovers and is primed for their first taste of playoff success.

Prediction: Carson-Newman spends Thanksgiving in Valdosta

If Miles is able to force turnovers and take advantage of those turnovers, similar to what happened when the Eagles lost to Wingate and Emory & Henry, they have a great chance to win this one. You also must put the Eagles away and not let them hang around later in the game. Miles gives up less than 100 yards rushing a game, but they also have faced only two teams in the top 75 in rushing offense in the country (gave up nearly 200 yards in each game) so the Eagles will have an advantage there, and not just because of their unique offense. My concern for the Eagles though is if they fall behind early. Regardless of the fact Clark Atlanta’s defense isn’t elite by any stretch, Miles put up points last week on them so fast the scoreboard operator probably said “I already put up 6”. “No they scored AGAIN”. My other concern for Miles is they’ve struggled against the top tier out of conference competition. They haven’t won a game against a non-SIAC D2 opponent in a decade. I don’t put much weight on a one point loss to West Alabama nearly three months ago. I like the Eagles ability to bounce back and move the ball in this one. Give me 2019 vs. Bowie State vibes. Low scoring, slobber knocker football in Birmingham.

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