November 29th, 2024 8:00am
Last weekend was one of the best opening rounds of D2 football playoff action I’ve seen since my freshman year at Carson-Newman in 2007. As I shared on social media, the average margin of victory was just 8.8 points (would’ve been 5.5 if you took out the beatdown Harding laid on Pittsburg State). That is the 2nd lowest margin of victory average in the past 25 years. Twelve teams moved on to the second round, nine of those could have been the opposite team. Before we get into the one game remaining involving a SAC school, here are my picks for the other games this weekend:
Kutztown over Slippery Rock
California over Ashland
Valdosta State over Miles
Ferris State over Central Oklahoma
Harding over Grand Valley
CSU-Pueblo over Minnesota State
Bemidji State over Western Colorado
Last Week: 0-3
Season: 61-16
Virginia Union Panthers at Lenoir-Rhyne Bears
Location: Hickory, NC / 1 PM
Series: Series tied 1-1. (Lenoir-Rhyne won the last meeting, 28-11, in 2019)
Virginia Union at Lenoir-Rhyne
9-3, 6-1 CIAA Record 10-2, 7-2 SAC
44.2 Offensive Scoring 27.3
17.0 Defensive Scoring 18.3
482.8 Total Offense 369.2
237.4 Rushing Offense 116.5
246.5 Passing Offense 252.7
307.7 Total Defense 295.4
137.2 Rushing Defense 116.5
170.6 Passing Defense 178.9
Virginia Union pulled off one of the biggest upsets in D2 last weekend, upending #2 seeded Wingate on the road in overtime, giving the Panthers their first playoff win in school history. After a Wingate opening score, QB Mark Wright hit Regi Vick Jr. for a 44-yard touchdown to knot things up at 7. Caleb Bonesteel would add his first of three field goals on the day to give the Bulldogs the lead back, 10-7 and that’s all the scoring in the first quarter. The offensive fireworks got going in the 2nd, with Wingate scoring another 10 points, but the Panthers having two big touchdown drives ending in a Curtis Allen bruising score from 2-yards out, and Keon Davis catching a 34-yard dart from Mark Wright. The Panthers led 21-20 at the break, scoring more in the first half on the vaunted Wingate defense that anyone had in months. The 2nd half turned into a defensive battle, with only one score in the 3rd quarter, as Brooks Bentley found Austin Cain from 26-yards out to give the Bulldogs the lead heading into the 4th. Wingate had a chance to shut the door for good in the fourth after a safety put them up 28-21, but an odd play call on 2nd down turned into an interception, giving the Panthers new life. Backup VUU quarterback RJ Rosales, who started earlier in the year, would tie the game with just 0:20 left to force overtime. After holding WU to a field goal, Rosales would score from a yard out, sealing the biggest win thus far possibly in the history of the program.
Wright and Rosales would finish 17 of 29 passing for 251 yards, three touchdowns and one interception on the day. No idea the status of Wright after leaving the game, but I think he gives them a better chance to beat Lenoir-Rhyne than Rosales. Harlon Hill nominee Jada Byers had a “quiet” day, rushing 23 times for 92 yards. Byers would have four catches for 57 yards out of the backfield as well. Rosales running the ball gave the Panthers new life, as he carried the rock 9 times for 50 yards and the winning score. Allen, who scored once, had just five carries on the day. Regi Vick Jr. led the receiving group with four catches for 92 yards and a score. The defense wasn’t great, but they made big plays when they needed to, forced two turnovers, and in the second half really kept the Panthers in the game and gave them a chance. They were also fresh, comparatively, as the Panthers held onto the ball for almost 18 full minutes more of game time.
In a game that had a lot of similarities to the Wingate/Virginia Union game, Lenoir-Rhyne’s contest with West Alabama to a last chance to force overtime, though this time a bad snap and missed kick did the opponent in. Lenoir-Rhyne and West Alabama combined for 51 first half points, which NOBODY had on their playoff bingo cards, before calming down a bit in the 2nd half.
West Alabama would strike first before Jalen Ferguson would tie things up at seven, with a four-yard run. West Alabama would find the end zone again to give the Tigers back the lead, before Ferguson would throw a gorgeous pass to Adonis McDaniel to tie things up once again. The 2nd quarter is when things almost started to get away from the Bears, as the Tigers would make some stops and scored twice within two minutes to push the lead out to 27-14. Tough ask to come back from two scores against a legitimate defense like the Tigers. Somehow, someway the Bears did just that. Malik Simmons would catch a 9-yard pass and score, and Jake Brown would put one through the uprights with 0:37 left in the half to put the Bears down just three heading into the intermission. You cannot stress how big those late scores were int eh story of this ballgame. Like our previous game, the defensive units slowed things down and adjustments were made for the second half. The Tigers stretched the lead back out to double digits when Spencer Arceneaux ripped off a 61 yard touchdown run. Jake Brown would add his second field goal of the afternoon, and then Ferguson and McDaniel would hook up again for a long 78 yard passing score to tie things at 34. Jake Brown would add a third field goal in the fourth to give the Bears their first lead of the day, and a missed Elijah Guyton field goal ended the Tigers hope. Bears pull off the upset, 37-34.
This game did not go the way anyone thought for the most part. Not the Bears winning, but these two defensive teams combined for 71 points and 939 yards of offense. Lenoir-Rhyne has long been known for defense and running the football. Well, the run game was no existent last weekend. Jamir Fox carried the ball 19 times for 30 net yards, just 1.6 yards per carry. He and the run blocking must be better this weekend. But what a day for Jalen Ferguson: 22 of 40, 411 yards and three touchdowns. No turnovers, no sacks. This is the kind of performance they needed and will need it again if the Bears are to repeat as regional champions. How Ferguson got the other guys involved as well lately has been big. Zion Agnew and Malik Simmons for example have been quiet. Songa Yates has been heating up (5-107 in this one) and Adonis McDaniels was massive: seven catches for 202 and two scores. It may be another tall task this weekend against the electric Panthers offense, but Jaelin Willis, Nic Cheeley, JT Black and company should be ready. Tre’von Cooper and Black added sacks last week and Damien Savage grabbed a pick.
I did not believe this until I looked it up, but this is just the 2nd home playoff game for the Bears since the 2019 regional final loss to West Florida. Regardless, the Bears are 5-1 in their last six home playoff games and have won by an average of 20.7 points. This year they were 6-1 at home. Virginia Union, meanwhile, was 4-3 on the road in 2024.
For Virginia Union and Lenoir-Rhyne, a lot of the things that worked last week will need to be done again this week:
I feel less confident about this game than any of the last round. I think VUU might be the better team overall. I was stunned at how well they moved the ball around, especially in the first half, against Wingate last weekend and think they will have some similar success this week. The two big questions I have for Lenoir-Rhyne are: (1) can they make enough stops against the Panthers offense to keep their own offense in the game? (2) Can their offense repeat last week and score enough to keep up? Last year the Bears made their run when I kept picking against them. Maybe they do it again in 2024.
Prediction: Virginia Union stuns Lenoir-Rhyne.
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