October 3rd, 2006 12:00am
In complete control.
That phrase best describes Newberry quarterback Josh Stepp’s performance in his team’s 32-18 win over Carson-Newman last Saturday. Stepp’s line: 21 of 25 passing for 261 yards and three touchdowns, 11 rushes for 86 yards, and his team converted on 8 of 12 first downs.
The Indians-- a team long known for football ineptitude-- now find themselves in the favorite’s role in the South Atlantic Conference after ending 27 years of frustration against the Eagles.
A Texas-sized match up in the Lone Star Conference between unbeatens West Texas A&M and Midwestern State dominates this week’s slate of games. But before I get to that, I want to provide a region-by-region breakdown of how I see things at the midway point of the season. I’ve listed my power poll for each region followed by a few of my thoughts on each region:
Southwest Region
1. Northwest Missouri (5-0)
2. Missouri Western (4-1)
3. West Texas A&M (5-0)
4. Chadron State (5-0)
5. Midwestern State (5-0)
6. Washburn (4-1)
7. Abilene Christian (4-0)
8. Pittsburg State (4-1)
9. Fort Lewis (4-2)
10. Central Oklahoma (3-2)
Thoughts:
-Northwest Missouri State might have the best defense in the country, but the Bearcats are vulnerable as long as they continue to struggle offensively. NWMSU needs better offensive line play and more consistency from quarterback Josh Matthews if a return trip to Florence is in the cards.
-The trio of Midwestern State, West Texas A&M, and Abilene Christian are clearly the class of the LSC so far and I expect that at least two of them will make the playoffs. Of the three, MSU has the most difficult schedule, but the Mustangs’ ability to score points in bunches also makes them the most dangerous.
-Chadron State has clearly been the best team in the RMAC so far this season, but road games yet this season at Fort Lewis and Adams State will be tests. If (and when) the Eagles do reach the playoffs, the combination of Danny Woodhead (1120 rushing yards) and a very solid defense give them the ability to compete with anyone.
-Instead of singing the praises of Southeast Oklahoma State a couple of weeks ago, I should have stuck with my pre-season gut instinct that no team in the LSC North was playoff caliber this year. It’s looking very likely at this point that we’ll go a third straight year with no LSC North team in the postseason.
-Right now it’s looking like either the MIAA or the LSC will get three playoff bids come selection time. The MIAA is stronger overall and probably deserves that third slot, but if three LSC teams finish with two losses or less, they could easily get the additional team instead.
Southeast Region
1. Valdosta State (4-0)
2. North Alabama (4-0)
3. North Carolina Central (5-0)
4. Newberry (5-0)
5. Henderson State (4-1)
6. Delta State (4-1)
7. Mars Hill (4-1)
8. Carson-Newman (4-1)
9. Albany State (3-2)
10. Lane (6-0)
Thoughts:
-North Carolina Central appears to be the best CIAA team in several years and the Eagles have an excellent shot at winning some games in the postseason. The only real area NCCU needs to improve is its running game, but I don’t see an opponent remaining on the regular season schedule capable of knocking off the Eagles.
-The SAC appears to be as wide open and balanced as any conference in the country this year. Some of that is due to the fact that programs like Newberry and Mars Hill have improved their programs. The other factor is that teams like Carson-Newman and Catawba aren’t nearly as powerful as they used to be. This will be a fun conference race to watch, but I wouldn’t count on a SAC team advancing far in the playoffs.
-Delta State has not been the dominant offensive force I thought they would be going into the season. But the Statesmen have been outstanding defensively and will play a major role in the Gulf South race with both Valdosta State and North Alabama paying a visit to DSU in mid-October.
-At 6-0 so far, the Lane Dragons are one of the biggest surprises in all of college football. LC went winless last year and had won just four games total in the last three years. The big improvement is due to an ability to win close games (four of the six wins have been decided by eight points or less) and a much improved defense. A season-ending game at Tuskegee could loom very large for the Dragons’ playoff hopes.
-Valdosta State and North Alabama are both looking quite dominant, but it will take a few more weeks to determine which team is the favorite in the region. If I had to go with one team right now, it would be VSU because I feel the Blazers are a bit more explosive offensively.
Northwest Region
1. Grand Valley (5-0)
2. Northwood (5-0)
3. North Dakota (5-0)
4. Nebraska-Omaha (4-1)
5. South Dakota (4-1)
6. Minnesota-Duluth (4-1)
7. Central Washington (3-2)
8. Ferris State (4-1)
9. Saginaw Valley (3-2)
10. Tiffin (6-0)
Thoughts:
-Sorry NSIC fans, but I don’t think your conference contains a team that is among the top 10 in the region right now. Winona State probably has the best team in the conference, but the Warriors need to play much better than they have so far this year to warrant playoff consideration. Could this be the year where Bemidji State finally breaks through and wins the league?
-With a healthy Reed Manke (the UND senior quarterback has missed the last two and a half games with a shoulder injury); the Fighting Sioux are probably the most complete offensive team in the region and a legit threat to get back to Florence. Without him, UND will have to scratch and claw just to reach the playoffs. Exactly when Manke will return to the lineup is unknown at this point.
-Grand Valley and Northwood have clearly established themselves as the top two teams in the GLIAC this year. The October 21st meeting in Allendale (where Northwood upset GVSU two years ago) is looming as a possible game of the year in the region.
-The longer Tiffin stays unbeaten (and the Dragons should easily get to 8-0 before an October 28th showdown with Hillsdale), the more nervous potential playoff teams from the NCC and GLIAC should become. It’s my opinion that an unbeaten record warrants playoff consideration for Tiffin, while one loss should disqualify them.
-Grand Valley doesn’t have the offensive line play or the physicality on defense that it did a year ago. But with Cullen Finnerty still taking the snaps and the overall team speed this team has, there is little doubt in my mind that this is the top team in the country right now.
Northeast Region
1. Bloomsburg (4-1)
2. Shepherd (5-0)
3. West Chester (3-1)
4. IUP (3-1)
5. C.W. Post (4-1)
6. East Stroudsburg (3-2)
7. California (3-2)
8. Edinboro (3-2)
9. Slippery Rock (4-1)
10. Bryant (4-1)
Thoughts:
-I really think Shepherd and Bloomsburg are the two best teams in the region at this point. After that, you could probably pick the next eight out of a hat. If West Chester can play well (or even beat) Bloomsburg this weekend, I think the Rams are the best bet to challenge the "big two."
-C.W. Post is the only Northeast 10 team with an unbeaten conference record, but the Pioneers aren’t a dominant force like years past. Translation: this could be a crazy year in the conference with the winner having a couple of losses or even a situation where several teams tie for the title. Parity is nice, but it can also hurt come playoff selection time.
-Outside of Shepherd, I don’t think there is another WVIAC team in the country that would rank in the upper half of all D-II teams. I thought this might be the year where a team like Charleston would step forward and challenge for a playoff berth, but it hasn’t happened. This conference really needs a couple of other teams to improve their programs to a respectable level.
-East Stroudsburg is one team I would not want to face in the second half of the season. Jim Terwilliger and the Warriors appear to be hitting their stride offensively after having some youthful struggles early on. ESU’s big problem: that season-opening loss to a so-so Bentley team is going to haunt them come playoff selection time.
-As I mentioned in last week’s column, do not be surprised if a few 3-loss teams make the playoffs from this region. Part of this results from the PSAC’s insular scheduling-- somebody has to lose when you basically only play each other.
Game of the Week
Midwestern State (5-0) @ West Texas A&M (5-0)
To say that both teams are offensive minded might be an understatement. WTAMU quarterback Dalton Bell is this website’s national offensive player of the week after throwing for 478 yards on Saturday. The Buffaloes average 344 yards per game through the air.
As I mentioned earlier in the column, MSU is also very explosive on offense. The Mustangs can move the ball by both ground and threw the air and average 517 yards and 48 points per game. Quarterbacks Rahsaan Bell and Daniel Polk combine for 350 yards per game of total offense.
I’m going to pick the Buffs to win this game, but not without some extreme reservations. MSU has a big-time offense and has won nine straight games dating back to the middle of last year. WTAMU gets the nod based on having the slightly better defense and a big home crowd to lend support. West Texas A&M 40 Midwestern State 38
Other Top Games
C.W. Post (4-1) @ Bryant (4-1)
Bryant has not fared well against the Pioneers in the past-- the Bulldogs are 0-5 against Post and have scored a grand total of just 32 points in those five losses. But this is a different Bryant team, one with the ability to move the football on offense. The combination of quarterback Charlie Granatell and running back Lorenzo Perry (879 rushing yards already this year) gives the Bulldogs a slight edge at home. Bryant 24 C.W. Post 22
California (3-2) @ Edinboro (3-2)
Obviously, the loser of this game will be saddled with a third loss and be in great peril as far as playoff chances go. Both teams are excellent in defending the run (each allow around 60 yards per game on the ground) so whoever can establish some semblance of a running game will have the upper hand. I’m going to go with the Vulcans and their slightly better offense. California 27 Edinboro 20
Catawba (4-1) @ Newberry (5-0)
Many people considered Catawba to be the class of the SAC this year, but they could be looking at a 0-2 conference start if they can’t get by Newberry this Saturday. Newberry could be primed for a letdown after last week’s big win, but I think the leadership of Josh Stepp will help overcome most of that. Newberry 24 Catawba 20
Mars Hill (4-1) @ Carson-Newman (4-1)
Don’t show up late for this game. With the propensity of both teams to run the football and the new clock rules, this will be a quick game. C-N did not look good against Newberry last week, and although MHC knocked off Catawba, it was far from pretty. I picked against the Eagles last week, but I won’t do it when they are at home and coming off a loss. Carson-Newman 30 Mars Hill 19
Washburn (4-1) @ Pittsburg State (4-1)
The Gorillas are the better team offensively, but the lowly PSU defense has made average offenses look like juggernauts so far this season. I think both teams will score some points, but it will be the team that can avoid turnovers that will win this game. I think the leadership of quarterback Jordan Brill will help WU make it two wins in a row against the Gorillas. Washburn 34 Pittsburg State 31
Central Washington (3-2) @ South Dakota (4-1)
CWU got that elusive first NCC win last week, but it will be very difficult to make it two in a row against a USD team that plays very well at home. The Wildcats will have to be perfect on offense and then hope that they can contain Stefan Logan for an entire 60 minutes. That’s just too much to ask from a team that has to be getting a little road weary. South Dakota 28 Central Washington 17
West Chester (3-1) @ Bloomsburg (4-1)
I believe West Chester has the talent to go toe to toe with Bloomsburg. But the Golden Rams have committed 14 turnovers in their first four games and that kind of sloppy play won’t get it done against a team with the defense and running game that the Huskies possess. This should be a pretty good game, but Jamar Brittingham and the Huskies will prevail at home. Bloomsburg 23 West Chester 17
Mailbag
[Q] What do you think IUP needs to do this year to return to national recognition? And how do you feel about the NCAA banning all Indian nicknames?
Brandon
[A] I think it’s pretty clear with their play so far that IUP is already returning to their familiar spot near the top of the PSAC. But any time you have a new coach, it’s going to take a while for that person to implement their system so it may take a year or two for IUP to get back to being a major force in the D-II playoffs.
The one major positive that Lou Tepper brings to the IUP program is that he will bring back the emphasis on 4-year players. The last few years under Frank Cignetti, IUP was bringing in way too many second chance type transfers, and although many of them were talented, they also put a black eye on the program with all of the off the field problems.
To address the second part of your question, I think the NCAA ban on Indian nicknames is ridiculous on many different levels. First of all, a very good argument can be made that the directive to ban the nicknames violated the NCAA’s own by-laws since it wasn’t put to a vote of all members.
Secondly, the incredible inconsistency in which the ban was applied (certain schools like Florida State were allowed to continue using their nickname) defies any reasonable logic. It would certainly appear that the bigger schools with the powerful alumni bases were granted more leeway than the others.
And thirdly, since the date in which the ban was announced (August 2005), North Dakota probably hosted as many NCAA postseason events as any school in the country. UND hosted a NCAA football playoff game, an entire D-II women’s basketball regional, and a D-I men’s hockey regional. Wouldn’t it make sense that the NCAA would have been able to come up with specific examples of problems created by the use of the Fighting Sioux nickname when it had its representatives on campus at all of those postseason events? If the NCAA is going to go around labeling certain schools with terms such as "hostile and abusive," it had better be able to back it up.
However you feel about the use of Native American nicknames, I think most people agree that this issue was handled very, very poorly by the NCAA Executive Committee. Besides IUP and UND, Newberry is another D-II school that could be affected by the hosting ban come playoff time this fall.
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