November 21st, 2006 12:00am
The first round of the Division II playoffs provided for plenty of excitement. Seven of the eight games were decided by a touchdown or less, with two games going to overtime. The fans definitely got their money's worth.
Will the trend continue into the second round?
Hard to say, but I do believe this: If we're going to see a major surprise or two occur in the playoffs, this is likely the week it will happen. The reason I think we may see upsets is because the top two seeds in each region haven't played in two weeks. Sometimes a week off can be a good thing as it gives teams more time to game plan and heal up from injuries. But in other cases, it can cause a team that is used to lining up every Saturday to lose the edge that earned them an opening round bye in the first place. Keep an eye on the scoreboard on Saturday for any interesting developments.
Mansfield Pulls the Plug
I mentioned in my column two weeks ago that Mansfield University was considering the termination of its football program. The axe did indeed fall last week in an announcement from President Dr. Maravene Loeschke. Interestingly, the door does not seem completely closed on the program as proven by this excerpt from the school's official release:
We will immediately establish a task force of football alumni and other interested people who will work with our Advancement Office to create a strategy for raising an endowment that would be sufficient to support a competitive football program. If we are able to raise sufficient funds in this way, we will open discussion about reestablishing a football program at whatever level-Division II, Division III, or Independent League-we can properly support.
On the surface, this appears to be a very similar situation to what happened at Michigan Tech a few years ago-- drop football as much to solicit support as anything else. But Mansfield is in a much different situation than Tech because it sounds as if the school as a whole is struggling financially and Mansfield doesn't have the large numbers of deep-pocketed alumni like MTU did. I would be very surprised to see football back at Mansfield anytime soon.
Harlon Hill Finalists
The original list of 24 candidates has been trimmed down to eight finalists-- two from each region. The Sports Information Directors at all of the D-II football-playing schools will now vote and the top three vote getters will be invited to Florence, Alabama where the award will be presented at a banquet the night before the national championship game. The list of finalists:
Scott Eyester SR QB Delta State
Cullen Finnerty SR QB Grand Valley
Stefan Logan SR RB South Dakota
Lorenzo Perry SR RB Bryant
Alton Pettway SR DE Albany State
Germaine Race SR RB Pittsburg State
Jim Terwilliger SR QB East Stroudsburg
Danny Woodhead JR RB Chadron State
As I stated a few weeks ago, I think Danny Woodhead should be the favorite to win the award. Cullen Finnerty and Germaine Race are the two players I would select as finalists in addition to Woodhead.
Playoffs- Second Round
Northwest Region
South Dakota (9-3) @ Grand Valley (11-0)
South Dakota gets its shot at derailing the Laker dynasty on Saturday, and unlike many past GVSU opponents in the postseason, the Coyotes have the talent to give the Lakers a battle.
But USD has two major problems going into this game. Number one, this will be the Coyotes' fourth straight week of playing a high quality opponent, and third straight road game. It's hard to keep playing at a very high level week after week and really difficult when the injuries are starting to mount-- two of USD's top three receivers suffered injuries last week.
The second problem the Coyotes have is that their weaknesses don't match up very well against the Lakers. Teams that can spread the field and throw the football have taken advantage of the USD defense late this season and Cullen Finnerty and Co. are more than capable of doing just that. I also expect GVSU to load up against Stefan Logan and the Coyote running game and force USD to throw the football to win. That will be difficult if they are short on receivers. If you haven't already guessed, I'm going with the Lakers in this one. The Coyotes have the talent to stay in it for a while but GVSU is just too good. Grand Valley 31 South Dakota 20
North Dakota (10-1) @ Nebraska-Omaha (8-2)
One of these two teams is going to have to "break a curse" to win this game. For UND, it's an inability to win in Omaha and to beat the Mavericks in general. UNO has won six of the last seven in the series between the two teams (including 21-20 in October); with an incredible five wins coming by three points or less. For Omaha, winning this game would break a long series of playoff frustrations. Despite all of the success UNO has had over the last decade, the Mavericks still have just one playoff win to show for it.
When two teams know each other this well, it will come down to mistakes and which team can execute better. I think UND has the psychological advantage going into this game because it's so difficult to beat another good team twice in one season and the fact that the Sioux know how to win in the playoffs. This will be another great game, but a late UND touchdown will win it. North Dakota 27 Nebraska-Omaha 20
Southwest Region
Midwestern State (9-2) @ Northwest Missouri State (11-0)
LSC fans got to puff their chests out a little after MSU came from behind to beat one MIAA team last week. Beating a second one will be a tall order as NWMSU is a very talented ball club.
I really believe that whether or not this is a competitive game will come down to one factor - the ability (or more likely, the inability) of the MSU offensive line to control the Bearcat front seven. If they can, the Mustangs have the talent at the skill positions to give NWMSU trouble. If not, it will be a long, long afternoon in Maryville. Northwest Missouri State 38 Midwestern State 14
West Texas A&M (11-1) @ Chadron State (11-0)
I feel that this game is the biggest in the history of the RMAC and the pressure is squarely on Chadron State. The Eagles are the best team to ever represent this conference (yes, that includes the 2004 Colorado Mines team) and the fact that CSC beat a I-AA playoff team earlier this year means that this team should be good enough to compete with anyone in D-II. It is now time for the Eagles to prove it.
Both teams can score points but have completely different styles on offense. The Buffaloes rely on the passing of Dalton Bell while the Eagles run the ball with Danny Woodhead. Both teams should score points, but the outcome will probably come down to which team can avoid making the big mistakes.
I usually have a pretty good feel for how I think a game will go based on all of the factors I study going in. Not in this case. Nothing would really surprise me in this game, including a big win by either team. I will go with Chadron State, if for no other reason than it's probably easier to run the ball in western Nebraska in late November than it is to throw it. Chadron State 28 West Texas A&M 24
Northeast Region
Merrimack (8-3) @ Shepherd (10-0)
Like Chadron State and the RMAC, this game is also huge for Shepherd and the WVIAC. The conference has just one playoff win since joining D-II and the Rams were knocked out in their opening game last year after going undefeated in the regular season.
Merrimack is the kind of team that doesn't do anything real impressively… except win. The Warriors had trouble containing Southern Connecticut running back Brandon Toles last week but still found a way to pull out the victory. This week the task will be finding a way to score points against one of D-II's toughest defenses.
I think the whole key to this game will be Merrimack's ability to slow down the Shepherd running game, and in turn, at least break even in the field position battle. Anything less than that and the Warriors are going to have a very difficult time winning this game. I think this Shepherd team is ready to atone for last year's playoff failure and they will take care of business. Shepherd 24 Merrimack 10
West Chester (8-3) @ Bloomsburg (10-1)
Forget the fact that the Rams are the six seed coming into this game. These two teams are fairly evenly matched (Bloomsburg won the regular season meeting 30-27) and many of WCU's key players were part of the Rams' run to the semifinals in 2004.
I think the Huskies have to be the favorite going into this game because of their defense, but I do have some concerns. First, it will be the first ever playoff start for BU freshman quarterback Dan Latorre and secondly, the Huskies also have injury problems in the backfield with Jamar Brittingham being banged up most of the season.
But, the bottom line to me in this game is that BU is a much better team overall defensively. This will probably be a tight game throughout, but the Husky defense will make one or two big plays that will allow them to win the game. Bloomsburg 27 West Chester 19
Southeast Region
Delta State (10-2) @ North Carolina Central (11-0)
DSU will make a second straight trip to North Carolina this week to take on a CIAA team. But this week the level of competition gets ramped up as the Statesmen take on the undefeated CIAA champs.
Both teams play outstanding defense so this game is going to which team can move the football enough at key times to get some points on the board. DSU has all-everything quarterback Scott Eyester, but he doesn't have the same high quality supporting cast that NCCU quarterback Stadford Brown possesses. Eyester is perfectly capable of leading DSU to a win in this game, but I like the Eagles' home field advantage and balanced offense in a tight game. North Carolina Central 16 Delta State 14
Newberry (11-1) @ North Alabama (10-0)
I was very concerned about Newberry going into last week's opening round because the offense played so poorly in the final regular season game. But the Indians rebounded nicely to beat Albany State.
This week Newberry is dealing with a whole different animal. UNA will have the most overall team speed of any team the Indians have seen all year and the Lions are also the most balanced offensive team Newberry has had to go up against.
Josh Stepp and the Newberry offense are good enough to keep the team in the game if they play well and don't make any critical mistakes. But this UNA team is so multi-dimensional and difficult to contain on offense that I think it's only a matter of time before the Lions' superior overall talent takes over. It will be close for a half or maybe even three quarters, but I think UNA will pull away and end up winning comfortably. North Alabama 34 Newberry 22
Mailbag
[Q] I noticed last week that Augustana decided to apply to the NSIC. What do you think this means for the future of the NCC?
John
[A] The NCC was on thin ice already and Augie's decision pretty much guarantees that 2007 will be the final year for that conference. With the two Dakota schools basically signed, sealed and delivered to D-I and Nebraska-Omaha attempting to get into the MIAA, there's not much left of the conference.
My guess is that St. Cloud State, Minnesota State, and Minnesota-Duluth will follow Augie's lead and apply for NSIC membership. I really don't see what other choice those three schools would have. They don't have the money right now to make a move to D-I and there aren't any other options around as far as a D-II conference.
The good news for those schools is that they could become the "flagship" programs in a new NSIC and have plenty of opportunities to win conference titles and reach the postseason in football. Plus, NSIC commissioner Butch Raymond has indicated that his conference is likely to increase its current football scholarship cap of 24 which would make the league more competitive on a national level.
The two Washington schools that just joined the NCC for football will likely be forced back into independent status. I have heard reports that D-II newcomer Dixie State is trying to get some of the western schools on the same page so that they could form a D-II football league in the west. This is sorely needed and I think Humboldt State, Western Oregon, Western Washington, Central Washington, and Dixie State would be the obvious fits to form the nucleus of a conference. I really hope something like that can be worked out in the near future.
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