October 2nd, 2007 12:00pm
It's amazing to me that it's already been almost eight years since Northwest Missouri State stole the national championship away from Carson-Newman in that epic 58-52 four overtime national championship game.
I bring that game up because I got to thinking the other day when reviewing the Eagles' big win over Newberry last week: where has Carson-Newman been for, oh, say the last seven years or so?
So, I decided I'd better check it out. I mean I knew that the Eagles had still been good and everything, it's just that I couldn't remember a year recently when Carson-Newman had gone deep in the playoffs.
What I found was that the Eagles have gone 67-16 over the past seven and a half seasons, and had made the playoffs on three separate occasions. But C-N had failed to advance to even the national semifinals over that timeframe, something the Eagles did four straight years in the late '90's.
You see, Carson-Newman was once the cream of the crop when it came to football at this level. Granted, the Eagles could never win that elusive national championship-- losing three championship games between '96 and '99-- but they were always among the top couple of teams to beat each year. There was a period of six or seven years when the short list of national championship contenders always included Carson-Newman. Not so much anymore.
Well, now it's 2007 and I think Carson-Newman is getting very close to reaching that elite, national championship level that the Eagles played at in the 90's. C-N completely dismantled a very good Newberry team 49-19 last Saturday and it appears that the pieces are once again in place to compete with the best teams in the country. The scariest thing about this Carson-Newman team: of the 22 starters that took the field last week against Newberry, 14 are sophomores. I have a feeling that we may once again be seeing Ken Sparks' Carson-Newman teams playing on Saturdays in December in the next few years.
Game of the Week
West Texas A&M (5-0) @ Midwestern State (5-0)
If you like offense, this is the game for you. Midwestern State leads the nation in total offense, relying on the electrifying Daniel Polk to lead the way. Polk is not only the Mustangs' leading rusher with 410 yards so far this season, but he also completes 71% of his passes and has thrown for nine touchdowns.
As usual, West Texas is right at the top of the heap nationally when it comes to passing offense. Quarterback Keith Null throws for 363 yards per game and he has a deep group of receivers to throw the ball to. The Buffaloes have also added another new wrinkle this year: a running game. Keithon Flemming not only averages 8.1 yards per carry, he also leads the team in receptions with 33.
Both teams are also very good defensively. WTAMU has been stifling on defense since the season-opening meltdown (45 points allowed) against South Dakota. Linebackers Jared Brock and Steve Allen are among the best in the country, and although the Buffs have had some injury problem up front, this unit is still talented and fast. The Mustangs lack the big name talent on defense, but they have been even more effective statistically this year.
To me, the outcome of this game is going to come down to one question: how well can the WTAMU defense contain Daniel Polk? They did it last year in beating MSU and as Northwest Missouri proved in shutting out the Mustangs in the playoffs last year; if you limit Polk you can beat MSU. I think the WTAMU offense can and will move the football and they will slow down the MSU offense just enough to win the game. West Texas A&M 31 Midwestern State 24.
Other Games of Note
South Dakota (3-2) @ Central Washington (3-1)
I've talked at length in this column about South Dakota's problems on the road, chiefly because it just doesn't make a lot of sense. If this game were in the DakotaDome, the Coyotes are a 14 point favorite.
There are a couple of other factors that will be working against USD in this game. First, this is the second straight week that the Coyotes have had to make a cross-country trip to play a game. And secondly, USD's problems defending the pass play right into the hands of Central Washington and star quarterback Mike Reilly.
CWU is a good team, but I have a feeling that somehow, some way South Dakota will find a way to win this game. This is a must win for South Dakota as far as the playoffs go, and I think running back Amos Allen (826 rushing yards already this year) and the Coyote offensive line will do just enough to pull it out. South Dakota 31 Central Washington 28.
Newberry (4-1) @ Catawba (5-0)
Newberry, of course, comes into this game licking its wounds after the big loss suffered at the hands of Carson-Newman last week. One of the great things about football is that you never can really predict how a team will react in those circumstances. Will Newberry come fired up and ready to play, or will the hangover from last week continue into this game?
What really impressed me in getting a chance to see Catawba play last week is that Brad Roach is a very efficient quarterback and he is surrounded by a deep group of talented running backs. If there is anything we learned about Newberry in the C-N game, it's that the Indians struggle throwing the football if you can stop their running game. Catawba doesn't have a defense as talented as C-N's but they are athletic up front and should give Newberry enough problems on offense to win the game. Catawba 27 Newberry 20.
Arkansas Tech (3-2) @ Delta State (4-0)
ATU has taken both Valdosta State and North Alabama to the wire in the previous two weeks, so we know the Wonderboys are good enough to play with anyone in the Gulf South Conference. But the question going into this game is this: is ATU healthy enough to go toe to toe with another top-10 team? Three starters went down with injuries last week, including starting quarterback Cole Barthel.
Delta State has battled penalties and inconsistency on offense so far this year, but there is no doubt about this: the Statesmen are awesome on defense. Linebacker Michael Eubanks is one of the top defensive players in the country and he leads a unit that has allowed just nine points and 53 rushing yards per game. Plus, having the home field and being the healthier team gives the Statesmen the advantage. Delta State 21 Arkansas Tech 10.
California (5-0) @ IUP (4-0)
California's gut wrenching loss to IUP in the season finale last year kept the Vulcans out of the playoffs and forced them to share the PSAC West title with IUP. Plus, IUP is the program the Vulcans have been chasing for several years now. For these reasons, I think you'll see a very motivated Vulcan team on Saturday.
As I mentioned a few weeks ago in this column, California has a level of defensive talent and athleticism not seen in this league in a few years. The Vulcans lead the nation in scoring defense, rushing defense, and total defense. IUP is a balanced team with some playmakers on both sides of the football. But I think it will be very difficult for IUP to contend with the Vulcans' defensive speed for four quarters. California finally gets its signature win. California 24 IUP 17.
Carson-Newman (5-0) @ Mars Hill (4-1)
It appears on the scoreboard that Mars Hill was overmatched in last week's 45-21 loss to Catawba. But if you had a chance to watch the game or take a look at the statistics, it would indicate otherwise. The Lions simply made too many critical mistakes and didn't give themselves a chance to stay in the game. What I'm getting at here is that MHC has the talent to play with anyone in the SAC (including C-N) if they play solid football.
There are two other factors that would seem to indicate that we will see at the very least, a competitive game on Saturday. One, MHC has played the Eagles very tough the past two seasons, winning 14-7 in 2005 and losing 10-7 last year. The Lions will be confident going into the game knowing that they can compete with the Eagles. The other factor is that MHC has had two extra days to prepare for the C-N veer offense due to the fact that they played on Thursday last week. Carson-Newman has more talent and the Eagles should eventually pull away. But don't be surprised if this is a competitive game into the second half. Carson-Newman 37 Mars Hill 20.
Northwest Missouri (3-1) vs Pittsburg State (4-1)
This is the sixth straight season that the Bearcats and Gorillas will meet in the Fall Classic at Arrowhead. The game has drawn at least 20,000 fans to each of the first five contests at the home of the Kansas City Chiefs.
The records are obviously similar, but I think these two teams are playing at completely different levels right now. The Bearcats have been destroying teams in conference play, while the Gorillas have been in a struggle every week. The main reason that PSU has been struggling is that it cannot stop the run, allowing nearly 213 yards per game on the ground. Unfortunately for the Gorillas, Northwest running back Xavier Omon and the offensive line are better than anything PSU has seen this season. Plus, as usual, the Bearcats can throw the ball a little too. The only way the Gorillas stay in this game is to control the football with their running attack and hope that Northwest makes a few mistakes. Northwest Missouri State 38 Pittsburg State 17.
Hillsdale (4-1) @ Indianapolis (4-1)
Indianapolis has fattened up on the easy portion of its GLIAC schedule, but if the Greyhounds are true playoff contenders they will have to earn it over the last half of the regular season. After this game with Hillsdale, Indy must still face Grand Valley, Saginaw Valley, and Northwood in coming weeks. Indy has gotten to this point with a sound defense (second in the league to GVSU) and a balanced offense.
Hillsdale is the top scoring team in the GLIAC (45.6 points per game) and the Chargers have been doing it through the air, with quarterback Mark Nicolet (348 passing yards per game) and receivers Aaron Waldie and Chad Gurica (70 receptions combined) torching opposing defenses. But what makes me really like Hillsdale's chances in this game is the defensive improvement made last week in a 37-0 win over MichiganTech. The Chargers escaped their porous ways and if they can keep it up, will be tough for any team to handle the rest of the year. Hillsdale 28 Indianapolis 20.
Charleston (5-1) @ Shepherd (4-1)
Want a good example of why it's foolish to compare scores? Three weeks ago Glenville State beat Shepherd 24-13. Two weeks ago Seton Hill beat Glenville State 34-27 in overtime. Last week Shepherd beat Seton Hill 44-6. Try to make sense of that.
Anyway, I remember mentioning in my preseason column last year that Charleston was a team to watch as a possible up and coming program in the WVIAC. It looks like I may have been a year late on that prediction. Charleston has improved as the season has gone on, capped by a dominating performance last week in a 40-7 win over Concord.
After losing its first conference game in over three years to Glenville State, Shepherd has rebounded nicely the last couple of weeks, winning by a combined 75-16. The Rams are also tough at home and you know Monte Cater will have this team ready to go with this game being a must win when it comes to the league title race. Shepherd 24 Charleston 13.
Mailbag
[Q] I seem to remember you saying at the end of last season that you think Nebraska-Omaha has had limited success in the playoffs because their passing game has not been sophisticated enough to help them win playoff games. Through five games this season, UNO has shown real improvement in the passing game. Zach Miller is averaging 196 yards passing per game with a 67.7 completion percentage. Do you think UNO has improved the passing game enough and shown enough balance to have more success in the playoffs?
Joe
[A] Well Joe, I don't know if a lack of a passing game can totally be to blame for UNO's past playoff failures. After all, there have been several teams in the past (Pittsburg State and Carson-Newman come to mind) that have almost totally relied on the running game and still did just fine in the postseason. Certainly though, UNO's lack of offensive balance has hurt them in specific situations in the playoffs in the past.
What Miller brings to the table, with his improved passing, is that he is now a great all-around player at quarterback. The Mavs have had very good running quarterbacks and some decent passing quarterbacks in the past, but no one with the overall talent of Zach Miller. For this reason, I think the Mavericks are more of a playoff threat this year than in years past.
The other reason I think the Mavericks have struggled at times in the postseason, at least recently, is that they've had some holes on defense. UNO is always a solid team defensively, but they never seem to field the dominant units like some of the other top Division II teams that have had playoff success. Obviously, a great defense can carry a team that might not be multi-dimensional offensively.
I think it's very hard to say if this is the year that UNO finally breaks through and starts to win in the playoffs, but if Miller can stay healthy and keep producing, the Mavericks definitely have a chance. Sooner or later though the odds are that this program will win (and most likely win frequently) in the postseason.
[Q] Grand Valley has been looking good so far this year. They have an experienced defense, but a young quarterback and some young guys stepping into key roles. What do you think their chances of repeating are and if you don't see them repeating who do you believe has the best chance of knocking them off in the playoffs?
Aaron
[A] First of all, I think GVSU's chances of repeating are very good. The Lakers have played outstanding football so far this season; in fact they have played better so far this year than they did early in 2005 or 2006. Quarterback Brandon Iciek was just named our national offensive player of the week, so obviously he is doing just fine taking over for Cullen Finnerty.
The other reason I think Grand Valley has a great shot at repeating is because I don't think there is another team in the GLIAC capable of beating the Lakers this year. That, of course, would mean that GVSU would finish the regular season unbeaten again and would likely have home field in the playoffs. It's very tough for anyone in D-II to beat the Lakers in Allendale.
There are a handful of teams in D-II that I feel, on a given Saturday, could knock off the Lakers. Northwest Missouri would obviously be one; the Bearcats have gone toe to toe with GVSU in the last two national title games and they appear to have title contender again this year. The problem for NWMSU is that they have already lost a game, so any playoff game (the two teams would meet in the semifinals) would likely be at Grand Valley.
Second-ranked North Dakota would be another obvious candidate. The Sioux are the only team to knock off GVSU in the playoffs over the last six seasons, beating the Lakers in 2001 and 2004. UND has a big home field advantage in the Alerus Center, so if they could get GVSU at home in a playoff game you'd have to like their chances.
The other intriguing match up would be GVSU versus North Alabama in the national championship game. Since the championship game is played on UNA's home field, the Lions would have a big home crowd backing them.
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