October 16th, 2007 12:00am
It's pretty rare for a top-10 team to blow a lead of more than 20 points, especially at home. It's even rarer when it happens twice in one week.
Carson-Newman led rival Catawba 35-13 late in the first half, but a furious rally led by quarterback Brad Roach (486 passing yards) brought the Indians back. Catawba took its first lead with 26 seconds remaining and went on to win, 55-49.
Delta State faced even longer odds as the Statesmen trailed Valdosta State 31-7 with just 6:26 to play in the third quarter. But DSU scored two touchdowns in the span of 58 seconds-- on a kickoff return and an interception return-- to cut the lead to 31-21. The Statesmen offense took over from there and DSU escaped with a 35-31 win.
It will be interesting to see the effect that these two games has on the emotional health of these four teams. Will VSU and C-N recover from the devastating losses and go on to reach the postseason? Or will it send those teams into a season-ending tailspin? Can Catawba and DSU keep their edge going forward after such a high point last week? That's the great thing about college football-- the games need to be played before we will know the answers to those questions.
Top Games this Week
West Texas A&M (7-0) @ Abilene Christian (6-1)
If you like offense, this is the game to see. Both teams rank in the top six nationally in total offense and both teams feature prolific passing attacks. Balls will be flying everywhere and the scoreboard operator will be kept busy. Further adding to the drama is the fact that the teams split two games last year, with ACU winning in the regular season and WTAMU coming back from a big deficit to win by three in the opening round of the playoffs.
WTAMU features the top passing offense in the country, which features a deep and talented corps of receivers. But the key player for the Buffaloes has been senior running back Keithon Flemming. He leads the team in both rushing and receptions, and has scored 13 touchdowns already this season. The Wildcats will need to keep Flemming in check to have a chance in this game.
ACU is led by junior quarterback Billy Malone. Professional scouts regard Malone as one of the top two or three signal callers in D-II from a talent standpoint and he has the statistics to back it up. Malone has thrown 20 touchdown passes and has a 176.6 quarterback rating. Malone also has the luxury of handing the ball off to Bernard Scott, who has 994 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns so far.
To me, this game is going to come down to one question: which team can make enough stops defensively to win the game? I think the Buffaloes have just a bit more talent on the defensive side of the football, led by star linebackers Jared Brock and Steve Allen. West Texas A&M 38 Abilene Christian 34.
Delta State (7-0) @ North Alabama (6-0)
DSU, of course, is coming off the amazing comeback win against Valdosta State. The big question, of course, is can the Statesmen get up for a second straight game against a top opponent? I'm guessing yes, considering all that is riding on this game (Gulf South championship, home field in the playoffs, etc.)
UNA has played very well so far this season, but some key injuries are starting to take their toll. Starting running back Tim Hicks was lost to a season-ending knee injury a few weeks ago and starting quarterback A.J. Milwee also went down to a knee injury in last week's win over Arkansas-Monticello. Milwee's injury isn't season ending, but he is listed as doubtful for Thursday night's game.
Despite the Lions' higher national ranking (second versus fifth for DSU), I think the Statesmen have to be favored in this game. DSU's strength is its aggressive, dominating defense and if Milwee can't play or has limited mobility, the Statesmen will make it very difficult to move the football. Plus, I think a win like what DSU experienced last week can have a real galvanizing affect on a team. Delta State 23 North Alabama 20.
Chadron State (7-0) @ Nebraska-Kearney (4-2)
Yes, UNK has two losses. But the Lopers' two defeats came at the hands of a pair of unbeaten teams (Nebraska-Omaha and Mesa State) and UNK was very competitive in both of those games. Translation: the Lopers are a very solid team.
Plus there are a few other reasons I think this might be CSC's stiffest test of the season. First, these two teams are huge rivals and we all know how crazy things can happen in rivalry games. Secondly, UNK has the best offense the Chadron State defense has seen this season. And thirdly, Danny Woodhead sat out the second half of last week's game with a slight leg injury. We don't really know if he will be 100% or not.
The Loper defense is solid, but I feel that CSC will get its points in this game. So the game is likely to be determined by how well an Eagle defense that has allowed just three touchdowns all season can hold down the Loper offense. UNK runs and passes the football effectively enough that I think the Lopers with rack up a few yards between the 20's. The challenge though will be scoring points against an Eagle defense that has allowed just three touchdowns on 18 trips inside its red zone this year. If you want to catch this game it will be broadcast live on CSTV Thursday night beginning at 7 P.M. Central on Thursday night. Chadron State 26 Nebraska-Kearney 17.
Tuskegee (6-0) @ Albany State (6-1)
The only fact you really need to point out the importance of this game: These two teams have combined to win the last eight SIAC titles. Despite the fact that Tuskegee elects not to participate in the playoffs, the game still looms large from that standpoint because Albany State is still shooting for a fourth straight postseason appearance.
Tuskegee is a balanced team offensively, but clearly the key to the success so far for the Golden Tigers has been a dominating defense that allows just 7.8 points and 195 yards per game. ASU is also a solid all-around team, but I think Tuskegee's dominant defense gives them an advantage in this game. Tuskegee 21 Albany State 13.
Mailbag
[Q] In your opinion, which Division II program in the country is the most overachieving and which is the most underachieving?
Brett
[A] Well, I think Chadron State does more with less than any other program in the country. Now before anyone jumps the gun and sends me some nasty email stating something to the effect that anyone would be good if they had Danny Woodhead, there are a few facts to consider:
-Chadron State's success this year has as much to do with a dominating defense as Danny Woodhead. The Eagles are allowing just eight points per game.
-CSC made the NCAA D-II playoffs four times in eight seasons prior to Woodhead even setting foot on campus.
-The Eagles have lost more than three games in a season just once dating back to 1993.
Chadron State is a small school with just 1632 full-time undergraduate students, located in a small town (around 5,000 people) in a sparsely populated area of the country. To consistently recruit athletes good enough to compete with the best teams at this level is pretty amazing when you consider the circumstances.
As far as an underachieving program, I think I would have to go with Central Oklahoma. UCO has a tremendous advantage over the other schools in the LSC North from a standpoint of school size, facilities, funding, and location. The Bronchos should be dominating the LSC North and making regular playoff appearances, and yet have finished under .500 in four of the past six seasons. Plus, the athletic department is now mired in the scandal with the alleged NCAA violations. There is really no excuse for this program to not to win a minimum of eight games every year.
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