Bob Eblen's National Column

October 30th, 2007 12:00am

It's that time of the year again, where we need to study up on such terms as earned access and strength of schedule. That's because with the playoffs just around the corner, it's getting down to the nitty gritty for determining who is in and who is out.

There are a few changes this year to the criteria, namely that computing the strength of schedule has been changed to include opponents' opponents' winning percentage. I've tried to crunch some of the numbers myself, and although it is quite complicated, I'll do my best to give you an idea of how I see the playoff picture shaking out as we enter the final two weeks of the season. Here's my region by region breakdown with two weeks to go:

Southeast Region

This region is fairly straightforward. The two SIAC teams in the regional poll-- sixth seeded Fort Valley St. and ninth seeded Albany St.-- play this week in a winner makes the playoffs match up. Both teams are finished with the regular season after this game and it's a virtual certainty that the winner will stay in the top ten in the final regional poll (thus invoking earned access if necessary).

Delta State, Valdosta State, and North Alabama each have weak schedules to finish the season and it would be a shock if any of these teams lost a game. If all three teams win out, they should stay in their current spots in the poll.

Catawba and Carson-Newman are four and five in the poll and they should stay in those positions if both win out. Catawba is a lock to be ranked ahead of C-N because the Indians won when the two teams played. Catawba plays a pair of 2-7 teams to finish the year so it would be a huge surprise if the Indians lost a game. C-N is the best bet of the top five teams to lose: the Eagles finish the season with two 6-3 teams (Wingate and Tusculum).

This is where the real wild card comes in: Virginia Union is the only CIAA team with much of a shot at making the playoffs. VUU plays 4-5 Fayetteville State this week and if the Panthers win, they will play again in two weeks in the CIAA title game. Two straight wins would mean a guaranteed spot in the playoffs. If the Panthers lose (either this week or in the CIAA title game), they would still make the playoffs simply by remaining in the top ten in the final regional poll. It's very conceivable that Virginia Union could grab a playoff spot via earned access and keep a 10-1 Carson-Newman team out of the playoffs. Ouch.

Southwest Region

I think it is fairly safe to assume that Chadron State and Northwest Missouri are already locks for the playoffs. CSC plays the two weakest teams in the RMAC over the next two weeks and even a loss wouldn't keep the Eagles out. Northwest Missouri's opponents are better, but the Bearcats' incredibly high strength of schedule would keep them in the playoff field, even with another loss. I also believe that these two teams will remain seeded one and two if both win out. Third-seeded West Texas A&M is also very likely to reach the post-season as long as the Buffaloes don't drop their final two games.

The next three teams in the poll (Missouri Western, Pittsburg State, and Abilene Christian) should each make the playoffs if all three win out. Each team has one stiff test on its schedule, though, so the likelihood that someone loses is pretty high.

Everyone else needs help. I think any of the other teams currently seeded between seventh and eleventh still has a chance, but not without some higher seeded teams getting beat.

Northeast Region

The game this week between California and West Chester should decide the top overall seed in the region come playoff time. The loser still makes the playoffs, but could be seeded anywhere from second to fourth depending on how some other games go in the region.

Shepherd wraps up its regular season against West Virginia State this week and the Rams should make the field, win or lose. IUP is also in very good position to make the playoffs if the team can win its final two games.

From there, things get messy, especially involving the three top Northeast-10 teams: Bryant, Southern Connecticut State, and Bentley. Bryant plays both SCSU and Bentley and is probably out of the playoff field if the Bulldogs lose both. Win both, and BU is likely looking at a first round bye in the playoffs while SCSU and Bentley will likely be watching from home.

Charleston and Slippery Rock are both teams that could also make the playoffs, but their fortunes probably also hinge at least in part on the Northeast-10 teams do.

Northwest Region

Grand Valley is a lock to make the playoffs simply because the Lakers will not lose their last two games. Nebraska-Omaha has a much tougher schedule, as the Mavericks must face South Dakota and Central Washington to close the season. But I think it's very doubtful that even losses in both of those final two games would keep UNO out of the playoffs due to a very high strength of schedule. As long as the Mavericks stay unbeaten, they will retain the top seed in the region.

North Dakota is in good shape as the Sioux own the head to head advantage over fourth seeded Central Washington. South Dakota finishes the season with UNO and UND and it's likely that the Coyotes have to win both of those games to reach the postseason. Ashland is also facing a win or watch from home scenario in the final two weeks.

If Wayne State (NE) can beat the University of Mary this week (more on that game later) then that sets up a showdown between Wayne State and Winona State in the season finale. It's very possible that the winner of that game could be the lone NSIC representative in the playoffs if WSC can hold serve this week.

Unless Saginaw Valley can pull off the unthinkable and upset GVSU this week, Hillsdale is the only other team in the region with playoff chances at this point. The Chargers probably need both Ashland and South Dakota to lose a game to have a realistic shot.

Top Games this Week

South Dakota (6-3) @ Nebraska-Omaha (8-0)

The Coyotes have owned the Mavericks over the past two seasons, pounding UNO by a combined 62 points. But those two games were in the Dakotadome, where USD holds a huge home-field advantage. Expect a much different game at Caniglia Field.

As I mentioned earlier, this game has huge playoff implications. But it also a key game in the race to the final NCC title: a Coyote victory sets up a potential four-way tie in the league going into the final week of the season. A Maverick win guarantees UNO at least a share of the conference crown.

The goal of both teams is to run the football and wear down the opponent. Which ever team can do that best will win this game. I like the Mavericks, not just because of the home field, but also because they play better defense. Nebraska-Omaha 31 South Dakota 24.

Fort Valley State (8-2) @ Albany State (7-2)

In all likelihood, neither of these teams will win the SIAC championship this year. That's because both clubs have already been defeated (handily I might add) by unbeaten Tuskegee. But, since Tuskegee elects not to participate in the playoffs, the Golden Tigers are not even ranked in the regional poll. Right now, FVSU is ranked sixth in the region and ASU ninth. As I mentioned earlier, the winner of this game is basically guaranteed to be in the playoffs, even if it's via earned access.

FVSU has been the master of winning close games-- five of the Wildcats' conference wins have come by four points or less. The big question this week is if a suddenly shaky ASU defense (75 points allowed in the last two games) can slow down FVSU back Pierre Brown, who rushed for 262 yards last week. Somehow, ASU will find a way to prevail at home. Albany State 17 Fort Valley State 13.

Colorado Mines (6-3) @ Mesa State (8-1)

These two teams sit tied for second place in the RMAC with 6-1 conference records. MSC still has playoff hopes, but if that doesn't happen, this game is still important because the winner would qualify to participate in the Rotary Bowl.

MSC is a team that plays great defense, but is vulnerable in any game because of a weak offense. Mines also plays solid defense and has really improved offensively over the last month or so. I like Mesa State to win this game because of the home field, but it will be tight. Mesa State 20 Colorado Mines 18.

Grand Valley (8-0) @ Saginaw Valley (6-2)

These two schools are huge rivals and SVSU is one of only three schools to beat the Lakers dating back to 2000. Plus there are playoff implications riding on the game. Obviously, this is a huge game.

I can't say much more about the Lakers than what's already been said in previous columns. GVSU is just an outstanding all-around team that does basically everything at an exceptional level. It takes a lot of deep searching to find a possible weakness with this team. If there is one, it might be that the Lakers aren't quite as physical defensively as in the past and some teams have had success running the football against them.

Unfortunately for the Cardinals, pounding the ball on the ground is not what they do best. SVSU likes to spread the field with receivers and let senior quarterback Chris Dougherty distribute the football. Nine Cardinal receivers have caught at least 10 balls this season. GVSU's strength as a defense is facing offenses like this where the Lakers can use their experience and speed on defense to get in the passing lanes and create turnovers.

SVSU has also had trouble stopping the run this season, allowing 192 yards per game. Unless the Cardinals can somehow get an early lead and take GVSU out of its comfort zone, it could be a long afternoon. Plus, although SVSU has some talent, it also has a great deal of youth. Combine all of these factors and it adds up to a 36th straight Laker win. Grand Valley 37 Saginaw Valley 17.

Mary (6-3) @ Wayne State (6-3)

This NSIC contest is important for a couple of different reasons. Number one, both teams have just one loss and the winner keeps its conference title hopes alive. The two teams are chasing Winona State, who is unbeaten in the league. Number two, the winner of this game is virtually guaranteed at least a berth in the Mineral Water Bowl, which goes to the top NSIC team not selected for the playoffs. WSC also has a slim shot at the playoffs if it can win this game and knock off Winona State in the season finale.

What WSC does best is find ways to win. Four of WSC's six conference wins have come by six points or less, including last week's miraculous rally from a 23 point deficit in the final 10:47 of the game to beat Concordia-St. Paul. The Wildcats are pretty good offensively, and they need to be with a defense that gives up 31 points per game.

Mary has a very strong defensive ball club. The Marauders allow just 285 yards of offense per game and seem to have a knack for coming up with the big play. Linebacker Shawn Melland has three defensive touchdowns already this year-- two interception returns and one fumble return. This is Mary's first year as a full member of D-II and what a boost it would be for this program to reach the postseason so soon. Mary 27 Wayne State 20.

California (9-0) @ West Chester (8-1)

I have talked about California all season long, while West Chester has flown a bit under the radar. The Rams are undefeated against D-II competition this year, their only loss coming to D-I FCS Delaware. Since these two teams are in separate divisions in the PSAC and crossover games don't even count in the standings, this game means nothing in the league. But with these two clubs seeded one and two in the Northeast Region right now, home field throughout the playoffs and possibly a first round playoff bye are on the line.

WCU's strength is on offense, where the triumvirate of quarterback Bill Zwaan (167 quarterback rating), running back Osagie Osunde (97 rush yards per game), and receiver Mike Washington (932 receiving yards, nine touchdowns) give the Rams plenty of ways to score points. WCU is a solid team defensively, but not dominant like the Vulcans.

California suffered a major blow last week when its most productive offensive player-- senior running back Brandon Lombardy-- was lost to a season ending knee injury. The Vulcans were never an explosive offensive team to begin with, but what they did do well is control the football with the running game. It will be much tougher to do that without Lombardy.

No team has been able to score more than 13 points against the Vulcans this year and WCU will have to do so to have a chance in this game. It's all going to boil down to how well the Cal offense can control the football in an attempt keep the Ram offense on the sidelines. It won't be easy, but the Vulcans are on a mission this year. California 20 West Chester 17.

Pittsburg State (7-2) @ Washburn (6-3)

The two teams have different styles, but the bottom line is that both like to run the football. The team that can defend the run the best should win this game. I think Washburn has the better defense and playing at home is also an advantage. But a Gorilla loss in this game means that PSU would miss the playoffs for a second straight season, something that has not happened since the school joined D-II in 1989. I'm going with tradition in this one. Pittsburg State 27 Washburn 24.

Central Missouri (6-3) @ Missouri Western (7-2)

I don't know if anyone in the country has done a better job of coaching done this season than what Jerry Partridge has done at Missouri Western. Partridge lost almost all of his impact players off of last year's playoff team, had to replace both his offensive and defensive coordinators after spring practice, and has several freshmen (including quarterback Drew Newhart) playing key roles this fall. All of this and the Griffons are on the cusp of making the playoffs again.

UCM has the stronger defense and that should give the Mules a slight advantage in this game. But Newhart and his cohorts are scoring 37 points per game and have shown the ability to run and pass effectively against almost anyone. The Griffons find a way to get it done at home. Missouri Western 30 Central Missouri 26.

Bryant (7-1) @ Southern Connecticut (6-3)

Despite the fact that Bryant is undefeated both in the Northeast-10 and against D-II competition, I feel that SCSU is the favorite in this game. The Owls have been rolling the past month, especially offensively. After struggling early in the year, SCSU is finally playing like the conference favorite it was entering the season. SCSU 31 Bryant 27.

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