Bob Eblen's National Column

November 6th, 2007 12:00am

Bob Eblen's National Column

 

It's seems almost surreal to me that this weekend we bid farewell to the North Central Conference. As someone that has spent an entire lifetime following this league, this week is filled with the whole range of emotions, from a nostalgic sadness about what once was, to an optimism about what the future may hold for many of these programs.

To me, there are two main factors that really made this league great. Number one was the great rivalries: North Dakota-North Dakota State, South Dakota-South Dakota State, Nebraska-Omaha-Northern Colorado, Minnesota State-St. Cloud State, South Dakota State-Augustana, North Dakota-Nebraska-Omaha, and I could go on. The passion and intensity that these games had over the years is tough to match.

The other thing that made this such a great league was the top to bottom competitive nature of the conference. Like any other conference, the NCC has had its powerhouse programs that dominated in particular eras. But unlike other leagues, the NCC rarely had any truly bad programs. Probably the best example of this: of the 14 schools that have been members of the conference since D-II started holding playoffs in 1973, only Morningside failed to make a postseason appearance.

If there is any good news coming from the breakup of the NCC, it's that none of the schools are left hanging in limbo. North Dakota and South Dakota are off to D-I, and if the success of North Dakota State and South Dakota State is any indicator, it won't be long before UND and USD make their marks at that level.

Nebraska-Omaha is headed to the MIAA, where the Mavericks should continue their uphill climb towards becoming one of the elite programs in D-II.

Central Washington and Western Washington are headed back to the GNAC for a second attempt at forming a conference out West. But the prospects are better this time: five schools are already slated to be part of the league next year with rumors that another school or two may be joining soon.

Minnesota State-Mankato, St. Cloud State, Augustana, and Minnesota-Duluth are joining the NSIC next year which, on its face, may seem like a step backward. But getting out from underneath the shadow of powerhouses like North Dakota and Nebraska-Omaha might help at least a couple of these programs to become consistent playoff contenders.

For one final Saturday, we celebrate a league that has contributed as much as any other to the fabric of football played at the D-II level. R.I.P. North Central Conference, you will be missed.

Division II Single Game Rushing Record Falls

Southern Connecticut State's Jerom Freeman set a new D-II rushing record last weekend, when he rushed for 418 yards in his team's 56-28 win over Bryant. Freeman now has 1635 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns this year, which becomes even more amazing when you consider that Freeman wasn't even a starter to begin the season. He took over the starting job after an injury shelved Brandon Toles midway through the year.

Playoff Talk

With so many variables and possible scenarios regarding the playoffs, it's almost impossible to do it all justice in this column. So Brandon Misener and I have once again done a region by region podcast which covers many of the possibilities as we enter the final week of the regular season. Breakdowns of the Southeast and Northeast regions are currently available by clicking the links on the homepage of the site. We will have breakdowns of the other two regions available on Thursday.

Top Games this Week

IUP (8-1) @ Bloomsburg (6-3)

This game marks the end to the tremendous career of Bloomsburg running back Jamar Brittingham. Brittingham-- a 2005 Harlon Hill finalist-- has quietly had a very productive senior season after an injury hampered 2006. He has rushed for 1315 yards and 23 touchdowns on the year.

The problem for the Huskies-- and the reason they will not be making a third straight playoff appearance-- is a porous defense. Bloomsburg gives up 388 yards and over 27 points per game and that will be a problem against an extremely balanced Crimson Hawk offense that spreads the ball around to several different playmakers. Bloomsburg's best chance to win is in a shootout, but the Huskies will have a hard time consistently moving the football against an IUP defense that allows just 269 yards per game. IUP 28 Bloomsburg 17.

Bentley (8-2) @ Bryant (7-2)

Despite outscoring opponents by just three points per game on average and out gaining opponents by just 17 yards per game, Bryant has somehow managed a very impressive record. Much of the credit has to go to senior quarterback Charlie Granatell, who has found ways to lead his team to victory in the clutch.

Bentley has won an impressive eight of its last nine games, but is currently fighting the injury bug. Quarterback John White and several other starters missed last week's game against Millersville with various injuries. This is not the type of game a team wants to go into short-handed.

Despite the injury issues, I tend to favor Bentley in this game for one very good reason: I wonder how much the psyche of Bryant's defense has been damaged after giving up the 418 rushing yards to Southern Connecticut's Jerom Freeman last week. Bentley 27 Bryant 21.

Tusculum (6-4) @ Carson-Newman(9-1)

Much has been made about the possibility of C-N missing the playoffs with a 10-1 record. But overlooked has been the fact that the Eagles must first beat their neighboring rivals, Tusculum. Anyone that thinks that Tusculum has no shot in this game had better think again: the Pioneers handed Catawba its only loss of the season three weeks ago and TC can win a share of the SAC title with a win in this game.

The Pioneers' strength is a defensive unit that allows just 295 yards per game. They will have to be on their toes to slow down a C-N offense that is among the best in the country. Not only is the Eagles' veer offense racking up the rushing yards, but C-N also leads the nation when it comes to passing efficiency. Tusculum's offense will probably be forced into trying to match C-N score for score, but will they have the confidence to do it? The Pioneers have not scored a touchdown against the Eagles since 2003. Carson-Newman 37 Tusculum 20.

Nebraska-Omaha (9-0) @ Central Washington (8-1)

It doesn't get much bigger than this with playoff positioning and the final NCC title riding on this game. UNO can win the NCC outright and clinch the number one seed in the northwest region with a win. CWU can win a share of the league title and guarantee a playoff spot with a victory.

Despite having one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Mike Reilly, the Wildcats have morphed into a defensive-oriented team over the last half of the season. CWU has allowed less than 12 points per contest over the past month and has largely relied on defensive play in winning seven straight.

If UNO has a weakness, it's that teams have been able to throw the football with some success against the Maverick defense. Reilly, of course, is perfectly capable of finding the holes in the opposing secondary. For that reason I think CWU will be able to stay in this game. But the bottom line to me on this game is this: the Mavericks are stronger and deeper up front on both sides of the football, and eventually they will wear down the Wildcats. It will be a very competitive game, however. Nebraska-Omaha 30 Central Washington 24.

Slippery Rock (8-2) @ Edinboro (7-3)

If the weather cooperates, expect a shootout in this game. These are the top two offenses in the PSAC when it comes to total yardage and both teams are capable of moving the ball on the ground or through the air. Edinboro's Trevor Harris and Slippery Rock's Nate Crookshank are two of the top signal callers in the league.

The team that can make a few defensive stops is the one that will win this game and that is where SRU has the advantage. The Rock's strength defensively is against the pass which helps to nullify what Edinboro does best. Slippery Rock 28 Edinboro 24.

Saginaw Valley (6-3) @ Hillsdale (8-2)

SVSU has a young but talented team that gave Grand Valley its first real test of the season last week. As with most young teams, the Cardinals have been inconsistent at times on both sides of the football. But SVSU has gotten better defensively over the last month and that makes this team a threat to beat just about anybody.

Hillsdale is all about offense. Quarterback Mark Nicolet has thrown 29 touchdowns against just five interceptions and his top two receivers (Aaron Waldie and Nick Gurica) have combined for over 2000 yards receiving. The Chargers can also run the ball some if necessary. Both teams are well into the positive category in turnover margin on the season and I expect that turnovers may well decide the outcome in this game. I'm going to go with Hillsdale-- the Chargers are more experienced and have more to play for with a possible playoff berth hanging in the balance. Hillsdale 28 SVSU 24.

Abilene Christian (7-2) @ Midwestern State (8-2)

ACU can pretty much lock up a playoff spot with a win. MSU would need some help, but the Mustangs are not out of the playoff picture either.

Similar to ACU's 70-63 win over Tarleton State two weeks ago, this game is likely to be a shootout. Both of these teams average around 45 points and 540 yards of offense per game. ACU relies on the strong arm of Billy Malone (297 passing yards per game) and the running of Bernard Scott (1559 rushing yards, 27 total touchdowns) to lead the way. MSU is a bit more of a run oriented team, with quarterback Daniel Polk being the star player. Polk is the teams leading rusher and has accounted for 32 touchdowns (16 rushing, 16 passing).

I think this game could really go either way. I tend to believe that ACU has just a bit more talent overall, but the Mustangs are playing at home and Polk is so difficult to contain with his running ability. Midwestern State 35 Abilene Christian 34.

North Dakota (8-1) @ South Dakota (6-4)

I know it may seem strange to see a 6-4 team still involved in the playoff picture, but consider this: USD's four losses are all on the road to an unbeaten FCS team and three D-II teams that are a combined 27-1 on the season. Not many other teams around the country would have fared much better against that schedule.

The common theme this year seems to be that most of the top teams have prolific offenses and that is certainly the case in this game. UND is third in the country in total offense while USD is eighth. It's likely we'll see a few points scored in this game.

On paper anyway, the Fighting Sioux should be favored. UND is more balanced offensively and the Sioux defense has finally gotten healthy and has improved markedly over the past couple of games. But the Coyotes are riding a home winning streak that dates all the way back to a regular season loss to UND to end the 2003 season. That reason alone gives USD plenty to play for. South Dakota 31 North Dakota 28.

West Texas A&M (10-0) @ Tarleton State (9-1)

A WTAMU win gives the Buffaloes the outright LSC title and a possible first round bye in the playoffs. A TSU win puts the Texans in the playoffs and gives them a share of the league title. Obviously, this is a huge game.

When two teams combine to go 19-1, it's apparent that they both do quite a few things well. Both clubs are very solid defensively and can score some points. But I like the Buffaloes in this game for a few different reasons. First of all, I just get the sense that this is WTAMU's year. Whether its been beating South Dakota in the season opener, or winning that first tough LSC road game at Midwestern State, or making the big plays in the fourth quarter to beat Abilene Christian, WTAMU has done what is necessary to win each week. Secondly, while both teams are very good, WTAMU is just plain a bit more talented overall, especially on offense. West Texas 34 Tarleton State 27.

Wayne State (7-3) vs Winona State (9-1)

It doesn't get much better than this when you consider that the NSIC title and a playoff berth are riding on this game. This game also has that charm of matching the perennial conference powerhouse (Winona State) playing against the upstart team that has come from its traditional spot in the middle of the pack to challenge for the league title. You could make a very strong argument that this is Wayne State's biggest game since becoming a member of Division II.

The strength of both of these teams is on offense, and with the weather being perfect (the game will be played indoors at the Minneapolis Metrodome) I fully expect some points to be scored in this game. The difference in the game will likely be turnovers, and WSU has a definite advantage in that category. The Warrior defense has 35 takeaways this year, while the WSC offense has been sloppy, turning the ball over 32 times this fall. The Wildcats will have to do a better job of holding on to the ball to have a chance. Winona State 35 Wayne State 24.

Mailbag

[Q] Do you think Shepherd can advance further into the playoffs than last season?

Dwight

[A] No. To advance farther than last season, Shepherd would have to win the region. That, of course, would mean beating a California team that is the best in many years to come from this area of the country. I don't believe any other team in the region has enough overall talent to knock off the Vulcans this year.

Contact Me

Have a question, comment, or criticism? Want to have your question answered in the weekly Mailbag? Have a suggestion for a podcasting subject?  Email Bob.