August 26th, 2008 12:00am
If there is one overwhelming theme in Division II football as we enter the 2008 season, it would be change - this season brings us another realignment of the regions and some major shifts in conference membership. Plus, the three teams that have dominated nationally over the past several years-- Grand Valley State, Valdosta State, and Northwest Missouri State-- each have major questions to be answered before any one of them can be considered a heavy favorite to make it back to the championship game. It would not surprise me at all to see a brand new pair of teams playing in the final in Florence.
One interesting trend that is taking hold in 2008 is one that is very positive for D-II football: several prominent programs have decided to take the plunge and actually play each other in non-conference games. After going for years with very few good early season match ups, there are suddenly several this season. Fans are going to want to pay close attention because the first couple weeks of the season will have major playoff implications. A few of the notable games:
Week One
West Texas A&M @ Mesa State
Edinboro @ West Liberty State
Bloomsburg @ Ashland
Valdosta State @ Newberry
Abilene Christian @ Northwest Missouri State
Shaw @ Albany State
Week Two
North Alabama @ Carson-Newman
Mesa State @ Central Washington
Pittsburg State @ Chadron State
Minnesota-Duluth @ Missouri Western
New Regions
As I mentioned earlier the regions are once again being realigned this year. A quick breakdown of the changes goes like this: The CIAA is shifting from the Southeast to the Northeast, the RMAC moves from the Southwest to the Northwest, and the GNAC (although it is not officially recognized as a conference) switches from the Northwest to the Southwest.
The changes create quite an imbalance. The Northeast Region now has four conferences and 44 teams while the Southwest Region has just two conferences and 31 teams. I'll have more commentary on the regional changes in future columns.
Clock Changes
For the second time in three years, we have some changes to the clock rules to talk about. The NCAA is switching from the previous 25-second play clock to a 40-second play clock this year. This really isn't that big of a change because under the old rules, the 25-second clock didn't start until the referee marked the ball ready for play.
The new 40-second clock will start as soon as the previous play is over so the actual time used will probably be roughly the same. If anything the change will make play more consistent because it will eliminate the possible discrepancies among officiating crews in regard to the amount of time it takes to mark the ball ready for play.
The one change that will have an affect is on a play that goes out of bounds. Previously the clock stopped on these types of plays until the ball was snapped. But under the new rules the game clock will start as soon the ball is marked ready for play. The one exception to this is in the last two minutes of each half, where the clock will not start until the snap.
The bottom line on these changes is that it will mean less plays and less scoring, but it shouldn't be as drastic as the disastrous 2006 timing changes, which have since been repealed.
Northeast Region Preview
California's terrific 2007 season brought some much needed respect back to a region that had not fared well in the playoffs since the regions were realigned in 2004. Cal rolled through PSAC and the Northeast Region playoff field and very nearly knocked off eventual national champion Valdosta State in the semifinals. The Vulcans were easily the best team the region has produced since the realignment and the best team to come out of the PSAC since some of the great IUP teams of the early and mid 90's.
The Vulcans lost just 10 seniors off of last year's 13-1 team, and although seven of those seniors were all-conference players, John Luckhardt succeeded in bringing in a host of talented transfers this off-season to plug holes. Plus, the gap between California and the rest of the region was large enough that it will take a large improvement by another program to catch up to the Vulcans this season.
The strength of the PSAC clearly resides in the West Division with California, Indiana and Edinboro possibly being the three best teams in the entire league. Just two of the eight teams in the Eastern Division finished with winning records in 2007, and both of those teams-- West Chester and Bloomsburg-- have some significant holes to fill this fall.
Shepherd has won four straight WVIAC titles and advanced to the region title game each of the last two seasons. But the Rams are rebuilding offensively and there are at least three teams-- West Liberty State, Charleston, and Glenville State-- that have the talent in place to potentially win the league and/or challenge for a playoff berth.
With defending league champ Bryant gone to D-I and perennial power C.W. Post moving to the PSAC, Southern Connecticut St. would appear to be the class of the Northeast-10 this year. The Owls should be able to overwhelm the rest of the conference with a powerful offense, but the gap is still large when it comes to competing in the playoffs, as evidenced by last season's 43-7 loss to California.
The CIAA has been vocal about its opposition to shifting to the Northeast Region. But the one benefit may be come playoff time, where the competition isn't as strong as the brutal Southeast Region. Virginia Union (2007 Eastern Division champ) and Shaw (2007 Western Division and overall champ) would appear to once again be the class of this conference. With five preseason all-conference picks on offense, VUU gets the edge going into this season.
Other Storylines to Watch in the Northeast Region
-As I mentioned earlier, with the region ballooning back up to 44 teams this year, playoff spots will be scarce. With the CIAA already having a league championship game and the PSAC reintroducing one this season, some good teams will be losing games to end the regular season. I have been on the record previously as stating that I believe conference championship games are a bad idea at the D-II level because they can hurt a league's chances at getting multiple teams in the playoff field. It will be interesting to see if the conference runner-ups in those two leagues are adversely affected playoff-wise by playing in league title games.
-Almost everyone associated with the WVIAC raves about how much the talent level in this conference has increased over the past couple of years. Teams like Glenville St. and West Liberty St. have relied heavily on D-I transfers to upgrade their rosters. Will one or more of those teams be able to overtake four-time defending conference champ Shepherd? Can a WVIAC team finally do what never has been done and win the region?
-The Northeast 10's loss of Bryant and C.W. Post is a blow to the overall level of play in the conference. But the loss of those two schools means opportunity, with programs like American International and even Stonehill finding themselves in the league title race almost by default. Which programs will step up into uncharted territory and become a contender in the conference?
Bob's Preseason Northeast Region Power Poll
1. California (13-1) This year's Vulcan team is probably at least as talented as the 2007 version, but it will need to gel quickly with Bloomsburg, West Chester, IUP, and Edinboro all on the schedule in the first five weeks of the season.
2. Indiana (9-3) Eight returning senior defensive starters could make for a long year for opposing offenses. Junior quarterback Andrew Krewatch (29 TD passes last year) leads the offense. If Cal slips up, IUP could be the team to beat in the region.
3. Edinboro (7-4) The Scots were eighth in the country in passing last year, riding the arm of PSAC West Offensive Player of the Year Trevor Harris. Harris returns along with seven other offensive starters on what should be one of the more explosive offensive teams around.
4. Bloomsburg (7-4) The Huskies should be another strong offensive team with third-year starter Dan Latorre quarterbacking a team that led the league in scoring last season.
5. Shepherd (10-2) The Rams won't be as talented offensively, but a strong front seven on defense and a strong tradition could very well carry this team to a fifth straight conference title and another playoff berth.
6. Southern Connecticut State (9-4) The trio of quarterback Steve Armstrong, running back Jerom Freeman, and receiver Chris Bergeski should help the Owls outscore everyone in the Northeast-10. But can this team play enough defense to compete in the region?
7. West Liberty State (8-3) The addition of Virginia Tech transfer running back Brandon Ore to an already prolific offense could mean big trouble for opposing defenses this year. Cornerback Darren Banks (Ore's cousin) is one of the top defensive players in D-II.
8. Charleston (8-3) With 18 returning starters, the Golden Eagles are a legitimate threat to win the WVIAC and reach the playoffs for the first time ever.
9. West Chester (9-3) The Rams have made four straight playoff appearances, but a complete rebuilding job on offense (just four starters return) may make it difficult to make it five in a row.
10. Virginia Union (9-3) VUU should be the class of the CIAA, but it remains to be seen if a switch in regions means any playoff success. Senior quarterback Lamar Little is one of the more dynamic playmakers in D-II.
Northwest Region Preview
Grand Valley once again gets penciled in as the favorite in the Northwest Region, but if someone is going to knock off the Lakers, this would appear to be the year to do it. GVSU has just 10 seniors on its roster this fall and the Lakers face some significant rebuilding on defense, where just four starters return.
But with talented underclassmen like quarterback Brad Iciek and running back James Berezik returning on offense, GVSU should be once again be a force. Plus, even with all of the inexperience on the Laker roster, it's hard to bet against a program coming off a 40-game winning streak and six regional titles in seven seasons.
The top challengers to GVSU's supremacy in the region could very well come from within the GLIAC. Ashland finished 8-2 and made the playoffs last year, and with quarterback Billy Cundiff back to lead an explosive offense, the Eagles should be right in the playoff hunt again this year. Saginaw Valley is the other GLIAC team to watch, as the Cardinals had a very talented young team last season that improved as the year went on.
The RMAC shifts over to the Northwest Region this year and brings with it two teams that qualified for the playoffs last year in Chadron State and Mesa State. CSC must adjust to life without two-time defending Harlon Hill winner Danny Woodhead, but the Eagles play solid defense and return a great leader in senior quarterback Joe McLain. Mesa State returns almost every key player off last season's 10-2 team, but a schedule that features two of the best teams in the country to open the season (West Texas A&M and Central Washington) means that the Mavericks must play even better to achieve similar results.
Despite finishing just 4-6 last year, Minnesota-Duluth was the preseason pick among NSIC coaches to win the league. Minnesota State-Mankato, St. Cloud State, and Winona State would be three other teams that would appear to have playoff potential in what should be a wide open league race. The NSIC should be an entertaining league to follow, but I doubt any of these teams have the ability to knock off a team like Grand Valley State.
Other Storylines to Watch in the Northwest Region
- Several NSIC programs have made (or will be making) significant upgrades to their facilities and increased scholarship dollars in an effort to become more competitive. Can the traditionally weaker programs start to close the gap and compete every week in a much stronger league?
-GVSU has gone three straight seasons without losing a conference game and no other team has really come close to knocking off the Lakers. It will be interesting to see if a team like Ashland or SVSU can finally provide a challenge to GVSU in the GLIAC this year.
Bob's Preseason Northwest Region Power Poll
1. Grand Valley (12-1) The Lakers are young and have some question marks, but there is too much talent here for this team to slip very far. GVSU will likely be more wide open offensively to compensate for a young defense.
2. Ashland (8-2) The Eagles can score points with anyone, but must improve defensively (30 points allowed per game last year) if the team is going to match its high expectations. Four of AU's five conference road games are against teams picked to finish near the top of the conference.
3. Saginaw Valley (3-7, four wins were forfeited) The Cardinals were a talented young team last year and now they are a talented experienced team. SVSU will need that experience with a schedule that starts with dangerous Wayne State in week one, GVSU in week two, and rival Northwood in week three.
4. Chadron State (12-1) The loss of Danny Woodhead leaves a void, but the Eagles shouldn't drop too far with a strong senior class back to lead the way. A game against Pittsburg State in week two should tell us a lot about where this team stands.
5. Minnesota State (5-6) MSU has plenty of ability, but never quite put it together last year. A switch from a ridiculous offensive scheme that attempted 53 passes per game last year to something more conventional should help increase the win total.
6. Minnesota-Duluth (4-6) The Bulldogs have a 4-year starter at quarterback in Ted Schlafke and he is surrounded by talent on offense. UMD must improve defensively (28 points allowed per game last year) to be a playoff team.
7. Mesa State (10-2) The Mavericks need to improve offensively to become legit playoff threat. As mentioned earlier, MSC may be out of it early because of a tough schedule.
8. Northwood (5-5) The Timberwolves were rebuilding last year and are now ready to reap the dividends with 17 returning starters. Plus, no Grand Valley on the conference schedule always helps.
9. Winona State (10-2) The Warriors will not give up their traditional position as NSIC kingpins without a fight. Replacing some top offensive players will be the key to success this season.
10. Hillsdale (8-3) The Chargers must replace all-everything quarterback Mark Nicolet, but the talented trio of receiver Aaron Waldie, tight end Matt Patillo, and lineman Jared Veldheer will give the new signal caller plenty of assistance. Hillsdale is a real dark horse team that could sneak up on everyone and have a great season.
Southwest Region Preview
Northwest Missouri State is seeking to make it an unprecedented four straight trips to Florence this season, but winning the region again will be a tall order for the Bearcats. By my estimation, there are five teams in this region (NWMSU, Nebraska-Omaha, West Texas A&M, Abilene Christian, and Central Washington) with the talent to make a run at the national title game. Staying healthy will be key for the winner and a little luck won't hurt either.
The addition of UNO to the MIAA makes the league perhaps the best top to bottom conference in the country. The Mavericks won at least a share of the last four NCC titles and will feature a talented, senior dominated team in their first year of MIAA play. Northwest Missouri State is right up there with UNO, but I give the Mavericks a slight edge in the conference based on the fact that they play host to the Bearcats this season. NWMSU has not fared well against UNO in Omaha, including suffering their only regular season loss there last season.
Pittsburg State, Washburn, Missouri Western, and Central Missouri are other MIAA teams with the potential to grab a playoff spot if things break their way.
The strength of the Lone Star Conference clearly resides in the South Division. West Texas A&M and Abilene Christian reached the playoffs last year and both teams return a tremendous amount of talent. These two teams will attempt to break the MIAA's four-year stranglehold on the region.
The GNAC is reforming after a two-year hiatus, but doesn't technically count as a D-II conference because it only has five teams until Grand Canyon University gets its new program up and running in 2010. Central Washington (11-3 and a quarterfinalist last season) is clearly the top team in the West. A September 27 match up with FCS power Montana may tell us where the Wildcats stand when it comes to national championship aspirations.
Other Storylines to Watch in the Southwest Region
-The North Division of the LSC was embarrassingly bad last season, with only one team (Southwest Oklahoma State at 6-5) finishing with a winning record overall. Central Oklahoma has the facilities and scholarship money to have a good program, but UCO is now on probation for NCAA violations. Will any of the other five teams be able to step up and become a consistently good D-II program?
-There is a great deal of hype surrounding Nebraska-Omaha and the school's transition to the MIAA this year, especially when you add the fact that the Mavericks have a very talented team. It will be interesting to follow the Mavericks from week to week because the rest of the MIAA will have this game circled on their schedules. Pat Behrns had better have his team ready because they will get everyone's best shot in league play.
- It is really a put up or shut up type year for the LSC. The preseason talk is about how immensely talented both West Texas A&M and Abilene Christian are, but the fact still remains that its been 14 years since an LSC team played for the national title and 26 years since an LSC team has won it. Until an LSC team actually wins big in the playoffs, the doubters (including yours truly) will be many.
Bob's Preseason Southwest Region Power Poll
1. Nebraska-Omaha (10-1) The Mavericks definitely have the talent, but will a change in scenery finally mean some playoff success? UNO has lost home playoff games three straight years in the Northwest Region.
2. Northwest Missouri State (12-2) Seven senior starters on offense should offset the loss of star running back Xavier Omon to graduation. The big question mark for Northwest will be filling the void left by the loss of six all-conference defensive players.
3. West Texas A&M (12-1) The Buffaloes have 30 seniors on the their roster and as many as eight NFL prospects so this is likely the most physically talented team in D-II. WTAMU must become more disciplined overall and more physical on defense to be a national championship caliber team.
4. Central Washington (11-3) All-American quarterback Mike Reilly is back for his senior season and he is surrounded by playmakers. Plus, the Wildcats should be a very confident group after winning their first two D-II playoff games in school history last season. A little bit better line play on both sides of the ball and this team will be outstanding.
5. Abilene Christian (10-3) There is no better offensive trio in D-II than quarterback Billy Malone, running back Bernard Scott, and receiver Johnny Knox. The Wildcats forced 37 turnovers last year, but must become stronger defensively to contend with the top teams in this region.
6. Missouri Western (9-3) Sophomore quarterback Drew Newhart is a playmaker and an already good Griffon offense should be even better this season. If the defense improves, this could be a surprise team in the MIAA.
7. Pittsburgh State (8-3) The Gorillas are very similar to Missouri Western in the sense that improvement on defense will be the key to becoming a playoff team. Mark Smith is a very talented dual threat quarterback.
8. Washburn (8-4) A strong defensive unit will have to compensate for a young Ichabod offense that starts just two seniors. Washburn is quietly becoming a very solid program: the team has won at least eight games in each of the last four seasons and made a pair of playoff appearances.
9. Tarleton State (9-2) The Texans must replace 20 seniors from a team that narrowly missed the playoffs last season, including their top seven tacklers on defense. But the Scott Grantham to Devin Guinn passing combination is outstanding and this is a strong program that will reload defensively.
10. Central Missouri (7-4) The Mules return eight offensive starters and five All-MIAA players on defense so this team should be improved over last season. UCM's brutal schedule is offset by the fact that seven of the eleven games are at home.
Southeast Region
Last year Valdosta State used the motivation from being snubbed for 2006 playoffs and rode it all the way to the 2007 national title. Carson-Newman finds itself in almost the exact same position this season. Despite finishing 10-1 last year and sharing the SAC title last fall, the Eagles were the victim of earned access (just like VSU in '06) and found themselves watching the playoffs from home. C-N had 14 sophomore starters last year and those players will be hungry not just to reach the playoffs, but to reach the school's first national title game since 1999 and to bring home that elusive first D-II championship. Defending SAC co-champ Catawba and Newberry are two other teams that will push C-N in the conference.
North Alabama has reached the quarterfinals or semifinals in four of the last five seasons, but the Lions are still looking for a return to the national title game, a place UNA has not been since winning a third straight title in 1995. The Lions are led by third year starting quarterback A.J. Milwee and an experienced offense. If UNA can rebuild defensively, this could be a special season.
Valdosta State has as many question marks as any defending champion in recent memory. The Blazers lost 23 seniors off of last year's team and although this program is still loaded with talent, it will take some time for everyone to come together as a team. Defending Gulf South champion Delta State is in much the same spot as VSU: an outstanding program, but one that has major holes to fill this fall to reach the level of last year's team. Henderson State and Harding are two other GSC teams that could push for playoff spots.
Tuskegee rolled through the SIAC with an 11-0 record this year, but unfortunately, the Golden Tigers elect not to participate in the D-II playoffs so we're not able to see how they stack up against the other top programs in the region. Albany State had its four year conference title streak snapped by the Golden Tigers last year, but the Rams did reach the playoffs, where they were once again dispatched in the first round. It's doubtful that any team in this league has what it takes to win this region.
Other Storylines to Watch in the Southeast Region
-Valdosta State, North Alabama, and Delta State have dominated not only the Gulf South Conference, but the entire region in this decade. All three teams are once again talented, but all three also have some significant talent to replace to get back to an elite level. Could this be the year where a team like Henderson State sneaks up on everyone and knocks the "big three" off their pedestal in the GSC?
-The absence of the CIAA means that earned access shouldn't be a factor anymore. Plus, more playoff spots for the GSC and SAC means there should be some very good football on display in the playoffs. This should be a very interesting region to follow come playoff time.
Bob's Preseason Southeast Region Power Poll
1. Carson-Newman (10-1) The Eagles have it all: plenty of returning talent on both offense and defense, great coaching, and maybe most importantly, extra motivation from not reaching the playoffs last year. This could very well be Ken Sparks' best team.
2. North Alabama (10-2) Milwee's experience at quarterback makes UNA my favorite in the Gulf South, but this team isn't without some question marks, particularly on defense. The September 4 non-conference match up with Carson-Newman will be huge when it comes to playoff selection time.
3. Valdosta State (13-1) The Blazers will have a lot of new faces, but with the first half of the schedule being fairly soft, there will be time for VSU to come together as a team. An October 25 game at UNA could be the game of the year in the GSC.
4. Delta State (10-2) With several key players to replace on both sides of the football, the performance of talented junior quarterback Garrett DeWitt may be the key to Statesmen fortunes this season. The Statesmen have brought in several junior college transfers to plug holes on the offensive and defensive lines.
5. Catawba (11-2) The Indians must replace star quarterback Brad Roach, but depth at running back and an offensive line that is intact from last season should help. Catawba has enough talent to once again push Carson-Newman in the SAC.
6. Tuskegee (12-0) It's too bad that the Golden Tigers don't participate in the playoffs because I'd love to see quarterback Jacary Atkinson perform against some of the top defenses in the region.
7. Henderson State (8-3) The Reddies have improved each season under Scott Maxfield and if HSU can rebuild an offensive line that returns just one starter, all the other pieces are in place to have a big year.
8. Newberry (9-2) The Indians proved last season that they were more than a one year wonder, but an inexperienced offense will have to gel fast with Valdosta State, Carson-Newman and Catawba three of the first five games on the schedule. Newberry does return seven starters to a defense that led the SAC last season.
9. Tusculum (6-5) The Pioneers return 18 starters, including five preseason All-SAC players on defense. Tusculum doesn't have the overall talent of Carson-Newman, but this team could push for a playoff spot.
10. Harding (6-4) Senior quarterback David Knighton (32 TD passes last year) is among the nation's best, but the Bisons must shore up a defense that allowed nearly 40 points per game in 2007.
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