September 30th, 2008 12:00am
Last weekend can best be described as a statement weekend by three of D-II's top football programs.
It was expected that Grand Valley would handle Michigan Tech. But c'mon, a 45-0 halftime lead? That's just not fair. With as young as this Laker team is, it does not bode will for rest of the GLIAC over the next couple of years.
In the South it was North Alabama flexing its muscle in much the same fashion as GVSU by racing out to a 49-0 halftime lead on the way to a 52-0 win over Harding. Keep in mind that this Harding team had been averaging 37 points per game.
But clearly, the shocker of the weekend was Northwest Missouri's 42-0 win at Nebraska-Omaha. Sure, UNO has a history of playoff failure and the Mavericks have occasionally been on the wrong end of a lopsided score on the road. But no one goes to Caniglia Field and handles UNO the way Northwest did last week.
So, the question then becomes: was the result of this game a case of UNO being vastly overrated or are the Bearcats suddenly world-beaters?
As with everything else, the answer probably lies somewhere in between the two extremes. But I can tell you this much: after a shaky start, Northwest is starting to look like the kind of team that could once again end up in Florence.
Other Random Thoughts from Week Five
-With as tough as the South Division is in the LSC, none of the contenders can afford any "bad" losses. If Tarleton State (5-0) makes the playoffs this year, the Texans will almost certainly have last week's miraculous win over Southwest Oklahoma to thank. Scott Grantham completed a 64-yard touchdown pass to Eric Foreman with 13 seconds left to escape with a 24-21 win.
-I talked about the wacky WVIAC in last week's column and it just continues to get wilder. Seton Hill's 24-14 win over Shepherd not only put the Griffins at a remarkable 5-0, but also marked the first time in 20 years that the Rams have lost three straight conference games. Who could have seen this coming at the beginning of the season?
-Those still unsure whether Central Washington is a legit contender to make a run in the postseason had better take notice of the Wildcats' 38-35 last second loss to FCS power Montana last week. Clearly, CWU has the talent to contend in Super Regional Four.
-Carson-Newman's 27-21 overtime loss to Newberry suddenly makes the SAC race a very interesting one. I have to believe the Eagles are still the most talented team in the league, but clearly C-N has some major issues to work out to get back to national title contender status.
-California's 21-19 win over Indiana not only puts the Vulcans in the drivers seat for a playoff berth and the PSAC West title, but also puts a great deal of pressure on both Indiana and Edinboro. Both of those teams have lost to Cal, and both will have weak strength of schedules because neither team plays any of the top teams in the PSAC East. The IUP/Edinboro loser on October 11 will likely be eliminated from the playoff race.
Games to Watch this Week
Pittsburg State (5-0) vs. Northwest Missouri (4-1)
(at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City)
As far as really putting D-II football on display, nothing does it quite like this game. There will likely be around 25,000 fans at Arrowhead Stadium to watch two of this level's most storied programs do battle. Plus, both teams are coming off their best performances of the year this past Saturday. It should be a very entertaining game.
Without Xavier Omon to rely on, the Bearcats have become much more balanced offensively this season. LaRon Council still provides a running threat, but Northwest also has five different receivers that have caught at least ten passes. It's tough to defend an offense as diverse as this one.
The Gorillas started the season slow offensively, but have really come on the past two weeks, racking up over 1100 yards of offense and 95 points over the past two games. It is the play of senior quarterback Mark Smith that really makes the Gorillas go. Smith is equally adept running or passing and his athletic ability puts a great deal of pressure on opposing defenses.
I think this will be a pretty good game, but I like the Bearcats to win and this is why: Northwest has been outstanding defensively the past couple of weeks, posting two straight shutouts. There is little doubt that PSU is improved defensively over the past couple of years, but the Gorillas just don't have the talent level that the Bearcats do. Northwest 31 Pittsburg State 21.
Delta State (3-1) @ Valdosta State (4-0)
Unlike last season when the Statesmen rode one of the nation's top defensive units to the GSC title and a regular season win over VSU, DSU has had to outscore teams so far this fall. The quarterback tandem of Garrett DeWitt and Blake Barnes averages 50 pass attempts and 391 yards per game. The Statesmen have needed every ounce of that production with their problems in keeping opposing offenses out of the end zone.
Valdosta State has been dominant defensively, yielding just 3.5 yards per play this year. This has helped make it more comfortable as the Blazers break in freshman quarterback Chris Hart.
I do think VSU is the better team overall, but the one thing that scares me a bit with the Blazers is the tendency this team has had to start slow offensively. DSU can obviously score points and I don't know if David Dean wants his team playing from behind with a young quarterback. I still think VSU finds a way to win the game, but it could be very interesting. Valdosta State 26 Delta State 21.
Wayne State (4-1) @ Ashland (3-2)
It has been a strange season for Wayne State. With one of the most talented running back combos in D-II in Joique Bell and Daryl Graham, it was expected that the Warriors would use a strong ground game to contend for a playoff berth.
Instead, WSU has been impotent offensively, averaging just 122 rushing yards and scoring just nine offensive touchdowns in five games. The Warriors have been winning games with an opportunistic defense that has forced 16 turnovers and allowed just 16 second half points all season. But sooner or later, the Warriors will have to figure out a way to get the offense untracked to keep winning.
A season of high expectations could have unraveled after Ashland suffered heart breaking defeats in the its first two games. But to their credit, the Eagles rebounded and ground out a pair of tough road wins over solid Michigan Tech and Hillsdale teams over the past three weeks. The Eagles are still a bit shaky defensively, but have finally begun to force some turnovers, intercepting eight passes in the last three games. I like Ashland in this game because the Eagles are the first team the Warriors have seen this year with the ability to score points in bunches. Ashland 27 Wayne State 17.
Ferris State (4-1) @ Michigan Tech (3-2)
These two teams traded opponents over the past two weeks, with both getting pounded by Grand Valley and beating Northern Michigan. Ferris State is old school in its run the ball and play defense approach while MTU is the type of team that needs to outscore the opposition. This will definitely be a battle to see which team can impose its will as far as a style of play goes.
There are several factors that should play in MTU's favor. It is the Huskies' homecoming and MTU will be motivated to rinse the bad taste of last week's 52-6 GVSU loss out of its mouth. Plus, its hard to imagine quarterback Steve Short playing much worse than he did last week. But I just have a feeling that FSU will find a way to win this game. The Bulldogs may not score a ton of points, but FSU should be able to find enough soft spots in the Husky defense to run the football effectively and win the field position battle. Ferris State 24 Michigan Tech 20.
West Chester (3-2) @ East Stroudsburg (5-0)
ESU has gotten to 5-0 on the strength of a passing game that features several different receivers, and due to injury, a pair of quarterbacks. But to be frank, the Warriors have not faced much in the way of strong competition, so the jury is still out on whether this team is ready to return to the prominence enjoyed three or four years ago.
West Chester, on the other hand, is tested with the Rams' two losses being to California and FCS power Delaware. Quarterback Joe Wright has been phenomenal in his first season as a starter and he is surrounded by talent at the receiver spot, with senior Mike Washington being among the best in D-II. Neither team is great defensively, but I give WCU a slight edge in overall talent. West Chester 30 East Stroudsburg 23.
North Alabama (5-0) @ Arkansas Tech (3-1)
Arkansas Tech is one of those programs that doesn't get much recognition nationally, but every coach in the Gulf South knows that this is a team capable of playing with the big boys. ATU has finished .500 or better nine of the past ten seasons and very nearly knocked off both UNA and Valdosta State last year.
But the problem for ATU this week is this: UNA is scary good. The Lions could have named the score last week against Harding, as they raced out to a 49-0 halftime lead before calling off the dogs and "settling" for a 52-0 win. And that was against a Harding team that averaged 37 points per game. The Wonderboys will have to catch some breaks to stay in this one. North Alabama 45 Arkansas Tech 17.
Catawba (3-1) @ Newberry (2-2)
I was pretty disappointed in Newberry's performance in a 24-10 loss to Midwestern State two weeks ago, because I thought the Indians were good enough to win that game. But Newberry certainly redeemed itself by beating Carson-Newman in overtime last week.
One thing is apparent: both of these teams are using strong defenses to win games. Catawba allows just 14 points and 238 yards per game while Newberry has held Valdosta State to 14 points and Carson-Newman 21 points. The difference is that Newberry's defense is proven, because the Indians have done it against two of the top programs in D-II. For that reason, I have to lean towards Newberry, but honestly, no outcome (including a decisive win by either team) would surprise me. Newberry 20 Catawba 13.
Midwestern State (4-0) @ West Texas A&M (5-0)
WTAMU has been inconsistent at times early this season, but the Buffaloes looked the part of a focused, veteran team last week when they raced out to a big early lead against Texas A&M-Kingsville on the way to a surprisingly easy 20 point win. That's a good sign as the Buffs enter the meat of the LSC schedule.
MSU has gotten to 4-0 with a strong defense, but there are two reasons why I don't think the Mustangs have much of a shot in this game. Firstly, MSU is not good at all on offense, averaging just 260 yards per game. And secondly, the Mustangs have not seen anything close to the offensive talent WTAMU will put on the field on Saturday. West Texas 37 Midwestern State 14.
Mailbag
[Q] What is wrong with the Shepherd Rams this season? We were picked to win the WIVIAC, that is not going to happen. Why is our defense so inconsistent, the same guys played last year? We lost starters on offense on the line and of course star running back Dervon Wallace. We really miss him carrying the load for us. Jimmy Sutch does not appear to be the answer, and appears to be running back by committee from the two home games I have witnessed. The Ram fans have become used to post season play, what is wrong with my beloved Rams?
Dwight
[A] Clearly, Shepherd's problems this year are due to the fact that the team cannot run the football. Last season the Rams averaged 250 yards per game and 5.1 yards per rush. This season those averages are down to 101 yards per game and 2.8 yards per rush. Obviously the loss of Wallace and having a young offensive line is making it difficult.
From a defensive standpoint, the Rams are very similar statistically compared to last season as the team gives up about the same number of yards and points. You also need to keep in mind that if the Shepherd offense struggles, the opposing team has more offensive options which in turn puts added pressure on the Ram defense. Although the Rams did struggle defensively in one half of one game (against Fairmont State), I don't think much of the blame can be placed there.
One other factor to keep in mind: many of the other programs in the WVIAC have really improved over last year.
[Q] I was looking through the championship handbook that the NCAA puts out and I'm concerned because it appears that the teams that are transitioning out of D-II (to the D-I FCS level) still count as D-II games when it comes to calculating strength of schedule. Can you clarify this for me?
Rod
[A] I wasn't 100% certain on the answer to your question, so I contacted a member of the Division II Football Committee to clarify. This is what I found out: any game that a current D-II team plays against a provisional D-I member does not count for the purposes of strength of schedule or D-II won/loss record. So, for example, St. Cloud State's loss to North Dakota does not count as a D-II contest.
Bob's Regional Power Polls
Super Regional One
1. Bloomsburg (5-0) Still the team to beat in the region, but Huskies have been shaky the past two weeks.
2. California (4-1) After surviving a brutal early season schedule, the Vulcans should now cruise to the PSAC West title.
3. Indiana (3-1) IUP found out last week that the offense still needs a little work. The next two games (against rival Slippery Rock and Edinboro) will make or break the season.
4. Edinboro (4-1) Remarkably consistent on offense-- the Scots have scored between 31 and 35 points in every game this year.
5. West Chester (3-2) The Rams are very dangerous because they can score points against anyone.
6. Seton Hill (5-0) Beating Shepherd last week could be a watershed moment for this young program.
7. American International (4-0) The class of the Northeast-10 at this point.
8. East Stroudsburg (5-0) We'll find out if the Warriors are for real with WCU and Bloomsburg on the schedule the next two weeks.
9. West Virginia State (4-0) The other WVIAC surprise team, but the Yellow Jackets haven't played the quality that Seton Hill has.
10. Virginia Union (4-1) That season opening loss to East Stroudsburg is now not looking so bad.
Super Regional Two
1. North Alabama (5-0) This looks like it may be UNA's best team since the national championship clubs of the mid-90's.
2. Valdosta State (4-0) Dominant so far defensively, but the Blazers will be severely tested this week against Delta State.
3. Delta State (3-1) Unbeaten against D-II opponents, but the lack of defense (37 points allowed per game) is a major concern.
4. Tuskegee (4-0) The Golden Tigers' 20-game winning streak is the best in D-II, but Tuskegee was unimpressive last week.
5. Wingate (5-0) The only unbeaten team in the SAC, but against questionable competition.
6. Newberry (2-2) A win over Catawba this week would put Newberry in the SAC driver's seat.
7. Carson-Newman (2-2) A season of sky high expectations is not off to a good start.
8. Arkansas Tech (3-1) Not a bad team, but I have a feeling the outcome this week against UNA will not be pretty.
9. Catawba (3-1) The Indians have not yet faced a high quality opponent.
10. Albany State (3-1) Disappointing loss last week to Benedict.
Super Regional Three
1. Grand Valley (4-0) One word: dominating.
2. Minnesota-Duluth (5-0) Clearly the class of this region behind GVSU.
3. Chadron State (4-1) The Eagles keep winning, but it's not as easy this year.
4. Ferris State (4-1) Proof that a strong defense and running game are still a recipe for football success.
5. Ashland (3-2) The Eagles still have a shot at the playoffs, but the next three weeks are all a must win with a game against Grand Valley looming on 10/25
6. Minnesota State (4-1) Last week's 35-32 win over Winona State puts the Mavericks in the driver's seat in the NSIC South.
7. Winona State (3-2) Will likely need to win out to have a shot at the playoffs.
8. St. Cloud State (3-2) Improving offensively, but this team will need to continue to get better with games against UMD and MSU still remaining.
9. Michigan Tech (3-2) It will be interesting to see how the Huskies respond to last week's beat down at the hands of GVSU.
10. Wayne State (MI) (4-1) How can a team with a talent like Joique Bell average just 238 yards of offense per game?
Super Regional Four
1. Abilene Christian (4-0) Can anyone slow down this offense?
2. Northwest Missouri (4-1) Maybe a fourth straight national title game appearance isn't out of the question.
3. West Texas A&M (5-0) The Buffaloes showed a lot in hammering TAMU-Kingsville last week.
4. Central Washington (4-1) A last second three-point loss to FCS power Montana shows that this team is for real.
5. Pittsburg State (5-0) The Gorilla offense is really starting to click. But can they contain an offense like Northwest's?
6. Nebraska-Omaha (3-1) Some soul searching going on in Omaha this week.
7. Central Missouri (4-1) The Mule defense seems to get exposed just a bit more with each passing Saturday.
8. Tarleton State (5-0) EXTREMELY fortunate to still be unbeaten.
9. Midwestern State (4-0) A very salty defense, but sooner or later the Mustangs will have to find an offense to compete in the high scoring LSC South.
10. Washburn (3-2) Solid team, but can the Ichabods stay above .500 with NWMSU, UNO, and PSU still on the schedule?
Contact Me
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