October 28th, 2008 12:00am
It's hard to believe that it's already the end of October and another D-II football regular season is just about in the books. At least to me, part of the charm of this level of play is that the season is short, making each week seem even more important. It's far different than D-I football where regular seasons dragging into December have become the norm.
With the regular season winding down, there are plenty of questions about who will be in the playoffs and who will not. The problem is that there are just too many variables with two weeks to play to go into the possible scenarios in depth in this column. I will try to break things down next week with some specifics on what I believe needs to happen for certain teams to get into the playoffs.
Top Games this Week
West Chester (7-2) @ Bloomsburg (9-0)
After dropping two of its first three games, WCU has flown underneath the radar for much of the season. But the Rams once again find themselves in position to win the PSAC East title and reach the playoffs for a fifth consecutive year. The Rams are no slouch on either side of the football, but the strength of this team is a balanced offense that averages 7.3 yards per play this season. Senior wide receiver Mike Washington is one of the top players in all of D-II.
It's obviously been another great year for Bloomsburg, albeit a bit unexpected as the Huskies have just nine seniors on their roster. The Huskies have won with a running game that averages 300 yards per game and a plus 11 advantage in the turnover category. I give an ever so slight advantage to the Huskies, but honestly, this game could go either way. Bloomsburg 27 West Chester 23.
California (7-1) @ Mercyhurst (6-3)
If this football season is any indicator, Mercyhurst made the correct decision in leaving the GLIAC for the PSAC. The Lakers were a perennial second division team in the GLIAC that now find themselves a win away from playing for the PSAC title after upsetting Edinboro last week.
There is nothing fancy about Mercyhurst's game. The Lakers have five seniors on the offensive line and they pound the football on the ground in an effort to control the clock and field position and in turn keep their defense off the field. It has worked so far as opponents average just 60 plays and 284 yards of offense per game.
There is no question that California has superior talent, especially on the offensive side of the football. But Mercyhurst's old school style can be frustrating to play against, especially for a team that likes to score points in bunches. If the Lakers can keep this close into the second half like they did against Edinboro last week, then they stand at least a chance of pulling the upset. But if the Vulcans jump out to a quick early lead, this could be a blowout. I'm leaning towards the latter. California 37 Mercyhurst 17.
Wingate (8-1) @ Carson-Newman (6-2)
Wingate has been Carson-Newman's whipping boy. The Bulldogs have lost 12 straight to the Eagles and have not come close to winning during that streak. The tightest game has been 16 points and most of the margins of victory have been much worse than that. The Bulldogs probably won't admit it, but I have to believe confidence will be an issue coming into this game.
The Bulldogs aren't a flashy team that blows you away with their physical ability. Wingate's strength has been an ability to win close games by making the necessary plays in the second half. The problem is that although C-N has struggled at times this season, the Eagles are also the most talented team the Bulldogs have seen. Wingate can probably stay in it by controlling the ball on offense, but sooner or later C-N's talent advantage will take over. Carson-Newman 31 Wingate 22.
Chadron State (8-1) @ Mesa State (6-3)
This was setting up as the game of the year in the RMAC. That was until Mesa State forgot to take care of business and got beat by Adams State last week. But although the playoffs are probably no longer in the cards for the Mavericks this season, they can win at least a share of the league title by beating CSC in this game and Nebraska-Kearney next week.
Chadron State has switched its approach in the post-Danny Woodhead era. The Eagles are now a very balanced team offensively that spreads the ball around to several different playmakers. Senior quarterback Joe McLain is the glue that holds everything together. Defensively, the Eagles have also been very good, allowing just 239 yards of offense per game.
The key to the game is whether or not MSC can get Bobby Coy going against that stingy Eagle defense. Coy has rushed for 1400 yards this season and if he can't find any running room, the Maverick offense will struggle. Chadron State 28 Mesa State 20.
Arkansas-Monticello (7-2) @ North Alabama (8-1)
UAM sophomore quarterback Scott Buisson has literally put the Boll Weevils on his back and carried them to seven wins this season. Buisson's statistics are amazing: 1063 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns to go along with 2356 passing yards and 22 more scores through the air. He lead the Boll Weevils to 26 fourth quarter points last week as they came back and escaped with a 3-point win over Harding.
UNA got back on track last week with an impressive win over Valdosta State. Despite the fact that the Lions lost to Delta State a couple of weeks ago, I still think that UNA is the most complete team in the region. The Lions should score plenty of points against a suspect UAM defense and their athleticism on defense will contain Buisson. North Alabama 38 Arkansas-Monticello 21.
Abilene Christian (8-0) @ Texas A&M-Kingsville (6-3)
TAMUK has made a nice turnaround so far this season, but the Javelinas have struggled against the better teams on their schedule. This in and of itself does not bode well against an ACU team that very well may be the best in the country. Quarterback Billy Malone did not even play for the Wildcats last week and they still dispatched a good Tarleton State team quite easily. Abilene Christian 42 Texas A&M-Kingsville 21.
Mailbag
[Q] With all the hype surrounding Abilene Christian's explosive offense the defense often gets overlooked. And as we all know "defense wins championships." ACU has only played two top flight offenses this season surrendering 27 to Northwest Missouri and 35 to West Texas A&M, but other than those two games no other team has scored more than 17. How well do you think ACU's defense can do in the playoffs when they will be facing good offenses every game, and could it be the Achilles Heel that stop's them short of a national title run?
Brandon
[A] ACU's defense is immensely improved over last season and that improvement is the reason why the Wildcats have become a dominant team this year versus a team that had to outscore everyone last year. The statistics are impressive: 16 points allowed per game, 28 sacks, 2.2 yards per rush allowed and 33 turnovers forced. I think the Wildcats will do just fine from a defensive standpoint against any opponent in the playoffs. They may not completely shut down opponents, but they will limit their production.
That said, the point I was trying to make in last week's column is this: ACU has talent on offense that is extremely rare in D-II. The Wildcats are one of those teams that are so good offensively that they don't need to be perfect on defense to beat other top teams. So while your assertion that "defense wins championships" is generally correct, it doesn't really apply when a team is as good as ACU is on offense.
I think if ACU does have an Achilles Heel; it would be that an injury to either Billy Malone or Bernard Scott would have a major effect on the team's ability to score points against good defenses in the postseason. That was the case last week when Malone had to sit out against Tarleton State-- the Wildcats weren't quite as sharp offensively as they had been. It sounds like Malone's thumb will be fine and he'll be back this week, but it is still something to keep an eye on as November approaches.
Bob's Regional Power Polls
Super Region One
1. Bloomsburg (9-0)
2. California (8-1)
3. West Chester (7-2)
4. Indiana (6-2)
5. Seton Hill (8-1)
6. Edinboro (7-2)
7. American International (8-0)
8. Fayetteville State (7-2)
9. Charleston (7-2)
10. Southern Connecticut (6-2)
Super Region Two
1. North Alabama (8-1)
2. Delta State (7-1)
3. Carson-Newman (6-2)
4. Tuskegee (8-0)
5. Valdosta State (6-2)
6. Arkansas-Monticello (7-2)
7. Wingate (8-1)
8. UNC-Pembroke (7-1)
9. Tusculum (6-3)
10. Mars Hill (6-3)
Super Region Three
1. Grand Valley (8-0)
2. Minnesota-Duluth (9-0)
3. Chadron State (8-1)
4. Ashland (6-3)
5. Minnesota State (7-2)
6. Wayne State (NE) (7-2)
7. St. Cloud State (6-3)
8. Wayne State (MI) (7-2)
9. Nebraska-Kearney (6-3)
10. Saginaw Valley (5-3)
Super Region Four
1. Abilene Christian (8-0)
2. Northwest Missouri (8-1)
3. Central Washington (8-1)
4. West Texas A&M (8-1)
5. Pittsburg State (8-1)
6. Nebraska-Omaha (5-3)
7. Central Missouri (6-3)
8. Washburn (6-3)
9. Tarleton State (7-2)
10. Texas A&M Kingsville (6-3)
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