November 11th, 2008 12:00am
I find it quite ironic that a year after being one of the biggest playoff snubs in D-II history, Carson-Newman backed into the field this year with a 7-3 record after losing to Tusculum last Saturday. Just goes to show what a difference a year can make.
Of course there are some folks claiming that the exclusion of their team is a travesty worthy of a government investigation, but you're always going to run into that sentiment. If the playoff field were expanded to 48 teams, there would be arguments over which 6-5 team was unjustly left out of the postseason.
I do not, however, believe there is any team that could be considered a playoff snub this year. In almost all cases, if a team had a decent record and didn't make the playoffs, it was because of strength of schedule. Some examples: Indiana (8-2 record, 120th in SOS), Edinboro (9-2 and 117th), Glenville State (8-3 and 139th) and Fayetteville State (8-2, 141st).
If anyone tries to say that some of these teams had no shot at making the playoffs before the season started because of weak schedules, it's simply not true. Minnesota-Duluth gained the second seed in Super Region Three with a SOS that ranked one spot behind IUP's (121st). The Bulldogs played a schedule just as weak as IUP's or Edinboro's, but UMD made it because they went 11-0. The bottom line is if you don't play good teams, you'll need to win a lot of games to get into the playoffs. Makes sense to me.
First Round Playoff Games
Super Region One
Southern Connecticut (8-2) @ West Chester (8-3)
The Owls have overcome some major injury problems that plagued them early this season to rebound and reach the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season. SCSU's weakness in past playoff games has been a defense that hasn't been able to slow down the opposition. But the second half of this season SCSU has been very good defensively.
The Rams are no slouch either defensively, but WCU has a very strong and diverse offense, led by senior receiver Mike Washington, who has 1045 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns this year. The Rams should have a bit too much firepower for the Owls to match. West Chester 31 Southern Connecticut 20.
Seton Hill (9-2) @ American International (9-1)
This game should be entertaining if for no other reason than the fact that both teams are playoff rookies and you just don't know what to expect under those circumstances. AIC is led by quarterback Rob Parent and a defense that ranks in the top ten nationally. Seton Hill really hasn't dominated in any statistical category, but is an experienced team that has consistently found ways to win close games.
I think the home field and Parent's ability to make plays will be just enough for AIC to pick up its first every playoff win. It will be a good game, however. American International 28 Seton Hill 21.
Super Region Two
Albany State (7-3) @ Tusculum (8-3)
ASU is fifth in the nation in total defense, allowing just 236 yards per game. Meanwhile, Tusculum averages 452 yards of offense per game, including 327 through the air. This game is obviously a contrast in team strengths.
Tusculum is not good defensively, but I think the Pioneers are the favorite simply because I don't think the Rams are good enough on offense to outscore TC. Not that ASU is inept offensively, but they are facing a team that has not scored less than 33 points in a game this year against a D-II opponent. Tusculum quarterback Corey Russell is playing some phenomenal football and he'll lead his team to the win. Tusculum 35 Albany State 23.
Carson-Newman (7-3) @ Valdosta State (8-2)
Neither of these teams has lived up to expectations this season. The defending national champion Blazers have had inconsistent quarterback play which has led to critical mistakes that have cost VSU in both losses. C-N's problems have been untimely turnovers and a defense that has been below average.
I think VSU is going to win for a couple of different reasons. Number one, the Blazers are a more physical and athletic team overall and that will take its toll as the game goes one. And number two, the Blazers can be forced into making mistakes in the passing game, but I don't think the Eagles are strong enough defensively to force those errors. Valdosta State 31 Carson-Newman 24.
Super Region Three
Minnesota State (9-2) @ Ashland (8-3)
This is an interesting match up because Billy Cundiff and his aerial circus will be going up against a MSU defense that has 26 sacks and 24 interceptions this season. It will be interesting to see which unit can get the upper hand in this match up.
Where the game will probably be won and lost is on the other side of the ball. To call Ashland's defense shaky might be an understatement, but while the Mavericks are competent offensively, they aren't the type of explosive team that will put up a whole bunch of points. What the Mavericks need to do is have sustained clock-eating drives that keep Cundiff and Co. standing on the sidelines. This should be a very good game, but I have to give a slight edge to the home team. Ashland 31 Minnesota State 27.
Wayne State (9-2) @ Chadron State (10-1)
Wayne State was blown out by Chadron State in both the 2006 and 2007 season openers. But the Wildcats have come along ways since then, reaching the Mineral Water Bowl last year and playing well enough this year to make a first ever playoff appearance.
While I think this game will be closer, I still think CSC is the heavy favorite. The Eagles are very good defensively, and they will take away the Wildcat running game and force Silas Fluellen to beat them with his arm, which has been inconsistent at times this season. Chadron State is a veteran team that knows how to win this time of year. Chadron State 27 Wayne State 17.
Super Region Four
Central Washington (9-1) @ West Texas A&M (10-1)
From a pure talent standpoint, this is the game to watch in the first round. CWU's Mike Reilly and WTAMU's Keith Null are two of the top quarterbacks in D-II and both quarterbacks have plenty of offensive talent surrounding them.
I think the difference between the two teams is on the defensive side of the football. The Buffaloes are more athletic and while both teams will score points, I just think the WTAMU defense will force a few more mistakes. West Texas A&M 37 Central Washington 32.
Nebraska-Omaha (7-3) @ Pittsburg State (10-1)
UNO and PSU are very similar teams, both statistically and in style of play. Both teams rely on strong running games and have quarterbacks just as adept at running the football as throwing it. While I think the talent level is similar, there are two reasons why the Gorillas have had more success this season. Number one, PSU has found ways to win in the close games, going 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. UNO is just 1-2 under those circumstances. The other reason is that the Mavericks have been plagued all season by turnovers that have led directly to opponents' points. PSU won the first match up 35-28 and I think the Gorillas will win again in similar fashion. Pittsburg State 28 Nebraska-Omaha 20.
Mailbag
[Q] Which conference was the toughest this year?
Mike
[A] It has to be the MIAA. That league went 15-3 in out of conference games, the only losses coming to Abilene Christian (10-0), Minnesota-Duluth (11-0), and Colorado Mines (10-1). With Nebraska-Omaha joining the league this past year, the MIAA will be the powerhouse league in D-II for years to come.
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