Bob Eblen's National Column

September 8th, 2009 12:00am

Bob Eblen's National Column

 

Two weeks into the regular season and California, Carson-Newman, and West Texas A&M are all 0-2. Certainly strong competition has something to do with those records, but I don't think anyone would have predicted that all three of these teams would be winless at this point.

The good news for these teams is that they have played strong schedules and those that do so will be rewarded come playoff selection time. With a high strength of schedule it is very possible to make the playoffs with three losses and each of those teams has the potential to make it happen with a bit of improvement. It will be very interesting to see which (if any) of these teams can turn it around over the next few weeks.

The Defending Champs go down

For the second straight week the entire country was able to witness the type of athletes the top teams in this division possess. Central Washington's 13-10 win over defending national champion Minnesota-Duluth was impressive and also had me contemplating a couple of different things.

UMD lost starting quarterback Jon Lynch on the opening possession of the game and was forced to go with true freshman Chase Vogler. Vogler performed admirably considering the circumstances, and the outcome may have been no different had Lynch played considering how well the CWU defense played.

But last season UMD had the luxury of starting the same 22 players in all 15 games. Now early this season they have been bit by the injury bug. In addition to Lynch, starting wide receiver Noah Pauley and reserve running back Brad Foss were both hurt in the season opener and missed the CWU game. Just goes to show how a little good fortune can make a huge difference in the direction of the season. If Ted Schlafke had gone down last season to an injury would Lynch as a true freshman have been able to lead UMD to the promised land? I doubt it.

In regard to Central Washington, where was this defense when Mike Reilly was quarterbacking the team? I couldn't help but think how good the Wildcats could have been had they had they been able to field this type of defense with Reilly running the offense. CWU's front seven on defense was big and fast which is a departure from what we've seen out of the Wildcats the past few years.

News, Notes and Thoughts from around the Country in Week Two

- An early candidate for WVIAC coach of the year has to be Mike Kellar at Concord. Kellar was hired last winter to turn around the Mountain Lions after they had lost 26 of their last 27 games. Concord is 2-0 this season (the first time in 18 years the Mountain Lions have opened the season with two wins) and has nearly equaled last season's point total already.

- Charleston survived and avoided what could have been a disastrous loss to St. Augustine's. Despite out gaining their opponent by 265 yards and holding a 21 point lead midway through the 4th quarter, the Golden Eagles needed three overtimes to escape with a 43-41 win. 22 Charleston penalties allowed St. Augustine's to stay in the game.

- Bloomsburg has established itself as the favorite in the PSAC after beating California last week. The Huskies have allowed just 17 points total in the first two games, and if the offense comes along, Bloomsburg will be a major factor in the playoffs this year.

- The most disappointing team in Division II through two weeks? Colorado Mines. The 0-2 Orediggers had the preseason offensive and defensive players of the year in the RMAC and were favored by many to win the league. But despite having a veteran offensive line, CSM is averaging just 30 rushing yards per game and has given up 10 sacks. Unless that gets shored up, the Orediggers won't be challenging for the RMAC title.

- Eastern New Mexico quarterback JJ Harp continued his passing assault in week two, throwing for 492 yards on 60 attempts in a 45-7 win over Southwestern Oklahoma State. Harp has now thrown for 1005 yards in two games.

- The injury bug bit NSIC quarterbacks this past weekend. I mentioned Minnesota-Duluth's John Lynch earlier in the column and in addition, Minnesota State's Robert Fick is likely to miss about a month after breaking his fibula against Bemidji State. In that same game, BSU quarterback Derek Edholm was injured on a 3rd-quarter touchdown run and didn't return.

- I expected that Tuskegee had lost too much talent to once again run the table in the SIAC, but I certainly didn't expect the Golden Tigers to lose to Miles College like they did last week. Billy Joe has won wherever he has coached and in just his second season at Miles, he apparently has the program on the fast track to being one of the better teams in the SIAC.

- With Colorado Mines 0-2 and Chadron State getting blown out at Pittsburg State, Nebraska-Kearney has to now be the favorite in the RMAC after knocking off in-state rival Nebraska-Omaha last week. The Lopers beat the Mavericks for just the second time in the last fifteen attempts.

- Can the freshly reinstated New Haven football team actually compete immediately in the Northeast-10? It would certainly appear that way after the Chargers manhandled Lincoln (PA) 33-10 last week. The Chargers begin conference play with a game at Assumption College this week.

- While the final score (31-14) wasn't pretty in Carson-Newman's loss to North Alabama last week, Eagle fans should be feeling somewhat encouraged. C-N ran for over 300 yards against a very talented UNA defense and also did some good things defensively. What the Eagles really need is to get injured running back Buck Warfield back in the lineup to provide the offense with a home run threat.

Non-Conference Records

I talked in last week's column about the importance of non-conference games when it comes to playoff selection and here are the updated records of each conference through last week. Keep in mind these records reflect only games played against D2 opponents:

Super Region One

PSAC 9-5
WVIAC 6-6
NE-10 2-4
CIAA 3-9

Super Region Two

SAC 6-4
GSC 4-5
SIAC 2-0

Super Region Three

GLIAC 6-1
NSIC 5-3
RMAC 4-12

Super Region Four

MIAA 14-5
GNAC 4-0
LSC 6-6

Top Games this Week

Michigan Tech (0-1) at Ashland (1-1)

Ashland figured out its offensive problems that led to the week one loss against Bloomsburg and that doesn't bode well for a MTU team that struggled defensively last week.

Both teams had very high expectations coming into the season and unfortunately, one will face an uphill climb after this game. Ashland should open its new stadium in style in a relatively entertaining game. Ashland 31 Michigan Tech 30.

California (0-2) at West Chester (1-1)

The two teams that battled for the PSAC title last season have yet to get their offenses untracked this season.

This game is bigger for the Vulcans than it is WCU simply because Cal can't afford to start 0-3. There is too much talent on the Vulcan offense for the struggles to continue. California 31 West Chester 21.

Winona State (2-0) at Bemidji State (1-1)

These are two talented young teams in the NSIC, but most people thought they'd be a year away from challenging in the league. Forget that, they are playing with the big boys now.

I think WSU has a bit more talent, but the wild card is the health of BSU quarterback Derek Edholm, who was knocked out with a concussion in his team's OT loss to Minnesota State last week. If Edholm is 100%, the Beavers have a chance because of the dual threat he brings. Winona State 30 Bemidji State 21.

Wingate (2-0) at UNC- Pembroke (2-0)

The only blemish in UNCP's 9-1 season last year was a 24-17 loss to Wingate, so this is a big game for the Braves as they search for that signature win in their third season as a D-II program.

Wingate is a very solid team, but the Braves appear to have the offense this season to win this game. UNC Pembroke 28 Wingate 21.

West Texas A&M (0-2) at Central Washington (2-0)

WTAMU has struggled offensively this season and that doesn't bode well against an improved CWU defense that gave Minnesota-Duluth fits last week.

If Wildcat quarterback Ryan Robertson can pick up his game just a bit, the Wildcats could put a serious dent in the Buffaloes' playoff hopes. Central Washington 27 West Texas A&M 23.

Northwest Missouri State (1-1) vs Pittsburg State (2-0) at Arrowhead Stadium

The Bearcats have won five straight against the Gorillas, but two of the last three have come down to a play or two at the end so it's not as if the Bearcats have dominated.

Both defenses have been lights out so this game will probably come down to which quarterback-- Northwest's Blake Bolles or Pitt State's John McCoy-- can make a big play or two. I will take the 'Cats if for no other reason than they've had PSU's number recently. Northwest Missouri State 26 Pittsburg State 21.

Saginaw Valley State (2-0) at Grand Valley State (2-0)

GVSU's offense has not played at a real high level yet this season and with as stingy as SVSU's defense is, the Cardinals should be in the game.

The problem is that SVSU's offense is far from prolific and I don't know if the Cardinals can score enough to beat the Lakers on the road. Grand Valley 27 Saginaw Valley 16.

Central Oklahoma (1-1) at Texas A&M-Kingsville (2-0)

UCO's brutal three game stretch of road games concludes with a trip to Kingsville, but the Bronchos have to feel better about their chances after upsetting West Texas A&M last week.

The Javelina defense has been outstanding and with quarterback Daniel Garza making plays, TAMUK has to be the favorite at home. Texas A&M-Kingsville 28 Central Oklahoma 18.

Mailbag

[Q] I have been following the old Southwest region, the RMAC, and Chadron State very closely for the past 5 years. I consider myself very knowledgeable and self aware of the RMAC and Chadron's place within its old region and now the new Super Region Three. But I have no idea of the how these regions stack up with Region One and Region Two teams other than an occasional playoff game.

Without asking you to rank the conferences, where would a PSAC, SAC, GSC team rank in the RMAC? How would Chadron do in these conferences? Are these conferences balanced or top heavy? I understand I am asking the hypothetical and impossible but I do value your opinion and am trying to expand my d2 knowledge.

Josh

[A] Well Josh, much of what you are asking is a moving target. Strength of teams and conferences varies some from year to year so it's very difficult to just slot Chadron State in and say that they would finish third in Conference A year after year.

The RMAC from top to bottom is not as good as the three conferences you mentioned. Almost any decent team from any of the power conferences (GLIAC, MIAA, GSC) would finish in the top three in the RMAC most years because the bottom of the RMAC is so weak.

That said Chadron State has been so dominant within its conference the last three seasons that the Eagles would likely have done very well in the three conferences you mentioned. I think CSC would have had a good shot at finishing at or very near the top of the PSAC and SAC, but the GSC is another animal. I don't think the Eagles have had quite the same talent level as North Alabama, Delta State, and Valdosta State-- the three teams that have been dominant in the GSC.

As far as your question about conferences being top heavy, I think almost every conference in D-II is top heavy, at least to a greater degree than what you would find in a typical D-I conference. Some of this has to do with the differing amounts of emphasis schools at this level put on their football programs, but another major reason is that so many leagues have expanded so rapidly over the past few years that they are taking on schools that are not ready to compete at a high level in Division II.

Tiffin in the GLIAC would be a good example of this. The Dragons went 17-3 as an independent in 2006 and 2007 but were overmatched last year in their first season in the GLIAC, winning just one game. I also hate to think what will happen with Lincoln (MO) when they join the MIAA in a couple of years.

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