November 10th, 2009 12:00am
Over the course of my four years as national columnist on this site, I'd like to think I've done a pretty good job of giving the readers an overview of what is going on around the division each week and, maybe more importantly, a fairly accurate prediction of what is to come in future weeks.
The problem is that this year, especially over the last month or so, it seems like I've been wrong more often than not. (Example: Did I really say at one point that Ouachita Baptist might be the favorite in Super Region Two? Ouch!)
So I decided to do a little soul searching and try to figure out where things went so wrong this season. Am I losing my touch? Am I missing blatantly obvious predictive indicators that others are seeing? Is this column becoming the written version of the Sports Illustrated curse? Those are the types of questions that have crossed my mind over the last few days.
What I found was that, at least in the regular season, 2009 has been a crazy year. I decided to compile a list of the strange happenings:
- Perennial GSC powers Delta State and Valdosta State combined to lose nine games. It has been 10 years (and three national championships combined) since these two programs combined to lose so many games in a single season.
- Pittsburg State suffered its first losing season since 1978. The Gorillas finished 5-6 after losing to lowly Truman State (2-9) on Saturday.
- Catawba started the season as one of the favorites in the SAC and things were looking good after the Indians started the season 3-0. But from there it all unraveled and Catawba won just a single conference game, finishing alone in the SAC basement and having its first losing season (4-6) in 15 years.
- In the GLIAC two teams (Findlay and Northwood) increased their win totals from two last year to seven this year. Another pair of teams that typically finish in the upper half of the league standings (Ferris State and Michigan Tech) combined to go 3-18.
- A month ago, Abilene Christian was the top-ranked team in the D2Football.com poll and Bloomsburg was ranked third. Since then, both teams have lost three games, with ACU just barely making the playoffs and Bloomsburg missing out completely.
- A year ago, Seton Hill was the Cinderella story in Division II, reaching the playoffs in just the school's fourth season of football. This year the Griffins played like Cinderella, losing their final 10 games of the season and going winless against D-II opponents.
- Central Washington graduated one of the great quarterbacks in Division II history in Mike Reilly after last season, and just when most people figured the Wildcats would be rebuilding, they are the only unbeaten team in the division heading into the 2009 playoffs.
- Brevard College had won just five games in its first three seasons of sponsoring a football program and was winless in two years of SAC play coming into this year. But the Tornados won a remarkable seven games, including three in conference. By contrast, fellow SAC team Tusculum followed up its first ever playoff season by going 3-7.
- After four straight losing seasons, Shippensburg knocked off Bloomsburg, West Chester, and California over the last month of the season to win the PSAC title.
- West Texas A&M looked dead in the water after a 1-5 start, but the Buffaloes were the hottest team in the LSC over the last half of the season, winning their last five games and beating a pair of playoff participants by double digit margins.
- Then the biggest head scratcher of them all: How does West Alabama go from being West Georgia's only victory in its last 25 games to knocking off top-ranked North Alabama in the span of two weeks?
Did anyone else out there see even a portion of these things coming? I certainly didn't. Don't get me wrong, this topsy-turvy nature to football this season has been exciting and it's good for the division, but it sure isn't making my job an easy one.
I will tell you that I think Northwest Missouri State and Grand Valley State are the two favorites to meet in Florence next month, but the way this season (and my predictions) have gone, it wouldn't surprise me to see two teams come out of nowhere to reach the title game. That would be par for the course in what has been a wild 2009 season.
Playoffs- First Round
Super Region One
Fayetteville State (8-3, 6 seed) at California (8-3, 3 seed)
A week ago I would have told you that the Vulcans were an easy pick as my favorite in the region. But after last weekend's defensive meltdown in the PSAC title game loss to Shippensburg, I'm not so sure. I still think Cal is the most talented team in the region, but will have to play better that they did last week.
CIAA champion FSU has won six straight and eight of nine, so the Broncos enter the postseason on a role. They have a pair of good running backs in Richard Medlin and Calvin Harris and a pretty solid defense, but I think FSU's limited passing attack will play into California's hands. The Vulcans are deeper and have the playoff experience and they should take care of business at home. California 30 Fayetteville State 19.
Edinboro (8-3, 5 seed) at East Stroudsburg (8-3, 4 seed)
Two weeks ago Edinboro star quarterback Trevor Harris suffered a serious knee injury in the Scots' loss to Clarion. He has since had surgery to repair a torn meniscus and he has been quoted as saying he will do everything possible to be on the field on Saturday. Whether he plays or not could make a huge difference in this game.
ESU has relied on the passing of Matt Marshall (24 TD passes this season) and an opportunistic defense that has been among the best in the country at forcing turnovers (33, including 18 interceptions). With a healthy Harris, I think this would be a tossup game, but with Harris either not playing or likely being quite limited if he does, I think the Warriors have to be favored. East Stroudsburg 31 Edinboro 21.
Super Region Two
West Alabama (7-4, 6 seed) at Albany State (8-2, 3 seed)
UWA has been up and down all season and the lack of consistency makes this a tough game to predict. The Tigers are pretty good offensively with quarterback Deon Williams leading the way, but UWA is also a below average defensive team.
The question is whether ASU can take advantage of any of those defensive shortcomings. The Rams have not played great football over the last month and have seen their rushing total plummet in each of the last four weeks (164-108-94-59). Ultimately, I think the confidence gained from UWA's upset win over North Alabama will carry over into this week and the Tigers will win on the road. West Alabama 21 Albany State 14.
North Carolina-Pembroke (9-1, 5 seed) at Arkansas Tech (8-2, 4 seed)
To me, this may be the most intriguing off all the first round games. This young UNCP team is fourth in the country in total defense, while ATU is second in the country in total offense. ATU isn't great defensively, but fairly strong against the run, allowing just 92 yards per game on the ground, The Braves rushing attack averages 238 yards per game. Something will have to give on both sides of the ball.
I'm going to go with Arkansas Tech for this reason: Wonderboy quarterback Nick Graziano has been as good as anyone in the country over the last month, throwing for 1643 yards and 17 touchdowns in just the last four games. ATU in general has been a hot team over that timeframe and I think they will overtake the young Braves in their first playoff appearance. Arkansas Tech 32 UNC-Pembroke 27.
Super Region Three
Hillsdale (9-2, 6 seed) at Minnesota State (10-1, 3 seed)
These two teams seem quite similar. Both are loaded with individual talent and are fairly balanced on both sides of the football. Hillsdale is probably just a bit more explosive offensively, but MSU's ability to forced turnovers on defense evens that advantage out.
Even though the Mavericks are at home, I have to go with the Chargers in this game. When MSU released its pre-game depth chart, third string freshman Cody Rose is listed as the starter at quarterback (due to injury) and MSU is also a bit banged up on the defensive line. Even at home, it's tough to win in the playoffs under those circumstances. Hillsdale 28 Minnesota State 23.
Saginaw Valley State (9-2, 5 seed) at Nebraska-Kearney (9-2, 4 seed)
In SVSU's last playoff performance four years ago, the Cardinals made a first round trip to Nebraska and pulled off a mild upset by beat Nebraska-Omaha. They will attempt to do something similar this week.
Both teams like to run the football, and although UNK is probably more explosive offensively, I think SVSU's outstanding front seven on defense-- led by All-America linebacker John Jacobs-- will give them a slight advantage in this game. Saginaw Valley 21 Nebraska-Kearney 19.
Super Region Four
Abilene Christian (8-3, 6 seed) at Midwestern State (9-2, 3 seed)
There aren't many unknowns coming into this game. Not only do the two teams play in the same division of the LSC, but they just played last week, with MSU coming out on top 15-13. In that game, MSU took the wind in the first quarter and raced out to a 15-0 lead. ACU dominated the game from there, but just couldn't score enough points to come back and win.
MSU quarterback Zack Eskridge has had a terrific season, leading the nation in pass efficiency. But the Wildcats got after him last week, coming up with five sacks in limiting MSU to just 97 yards of offense over the game's final three quarters. The Wildcats have the playoff experience and I think they will exact revenge on Saturday. Abilene Christian 23 Midwestern State 17.
Tarleton State (9-2, 5 seed) at Texas A&M-Kingsville (9-2, 4 seed)
Like the ACU/MSU match up, this game is also a rematch from earlier in the season. The Javelinas forced six turnovers and knocked off TSU, 34-20. The Texans couldn't have played much worse in that game, as they also committed 17 penalties. Despite all of that, the game was tied with five minutes remaining.
Similar to the other game in this region, I think TSU will get revenge this week. In my opinion, TAMUK is the weakest of the four LSC teams in the playoffs, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where they have given up 31 or more points in each of the last five games. If Tarleton can limit mistakes this time around, I like their chances. Tarleton State 27 Texas A&M-Kingsville 24.
Mailbag
[Q] I find it very unfair that the championship game is on North Alabama's home field. They could potentially have every playoff game at home including the championship. How can the NCAA allow this?
Mike
[A] I just finished writing a feature story about the game being in Florence that will appear in the championship game program next month. The game has to be held somewhere, and after researching for the story, I am now convinced that having the game at a neutral site will never work. There is too much "buy-in" (volunteer, corporate support, a level of interest) from a community standpoint that needs to take place for the championship game to work at a given venue. The only way that buy-in takes place is if the game is held in a D-II community. Florence also hosts the Harlon Hill Trophy and the Division II Football Hall of Fame, which have become part of the fabric of the sport at this level.
So yes, UNA does have a slight advantage if they reach the championship game, but having the game (and all of the events surrounding it) in Florence is a huge benefit to Division II as a whole. Keep in mind that if the game were to move, it would almost certainly be to another D-II town/stadium, which would just leave people to complain about a different school having an advantage.
[Q] Why did one conference not get a single team into the playoff field and how can teams with 3-4 losses get in?
CEW
[A] The conference you're referring to that didn't get a team in is the Northeast-10. That conference is one of the weaker ones in D-II and this season, poor strength of schedules and an untimely loss by Bentley last week cost the league a bid. There is no automatic qualifier at the conference level (which is something I would like to see changed) so each year there seems to be at least one conference with no representation (last year it was the CIAA).
To answer your second question, there are teams with three losses that get in every year. This season there are just 21 teams in D-II with two losses or less so obviously there have to be a three loss teams getting in to complete the field. West Alabama got in with four losses, but one of those losses was to an NAIA team which essentially does not count in the process. This is another selection issue I don't agree with, but that is an argument for another day.
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