November 24th, 2009 12:00am
After a first round that was filled with upsets and wild finishes, the second round of the Division II playoffs was all about the top seeds flexing their muscle. Seven of the eight second round games were decided by 13 points or greater, with the only close game being the only one in which the road team was victorious: California withstood a second half rally by Shippensburg to win 26-21 and avenge its loss to the Red Raiders in the PSAC championship game.
What this sets up is a quarterfinal round that should be among the most interesting that I can remember. Not only are the top seeds alive, but most of them come into this week playing their best football of the season. When I look at each of the four games, I think a pretty good case could be made to pick any of the eight teams to win on Saturday. Most years there are at least a couple of quarterfinal games where there is a heavy favorite, but I don't feel that way this season.
Region Finals
Super Region One
California (10-3, 3 seed) at West Liberty (11-1, 1 seed)
The Vulcans will be seeking their third straight semifinal appearance, which would be quite an accomplishment for a program that had never appeared in the postseason prior to 2007. California is a team loaded with individual talent, as several key transfers play major roles. Senior quarterback Josh Portis has thrown 28 touchdown passes in his one season with the Vulcans.
Obviously, the Hilltoppers are all about offense. They scored 84 points in the win over Edinboro last week, and have scored 48 or more points eight times this season. WLU can run the football, but the key player is junior quarterback Zach Amedro, who has thrown for 4580 yards and 47 touchdowns this season. Amedro has three 1,000 yard receivers to throw to, making this a very difficult offense to stop.
To me, there are two main keys to this game. First off, WLU is not a good defensive team… California is going to score points and gain yardage. But the method in which the Vulcans move the football will be important. I believe they will want to run the ball as much as possible to grind out yards and chew clock and control the tempo of the game. If they can limit the possessions and take some rhythm away from the WLU offense, the Vulcans have an advantage.
The second big key will be whether the Vulcans can get steady pressure on Amedro. Cal has eight different players on the roster with at least 2.5 sacks this year, so they have the potential to get after the quarterback from many different directions. The back end of the Vulcan defense should easily be the most athletic that Hilltoppers have faced and if Amedro is under pressure, it's likely that some turnovers can be created.
Prediction: I've been going back and forth on this game for a couple of days. Part of me thinks that the Hilltoppers are so red hot offensively that they will be able to simply outscore the Vulcans. The other part of me feels that Cal has better athletes than anyone WLU has seen this season and the Vulcans will slow down that red hot Hilltopper offense. We'll see which theory prevails on Saturday. California 35 West Liberty 33.
Super Region Two
Carson-Newman (10-2, 2 seed) at North Alabama (11-1, 1 seed)
Not only will the Eagles be taking on a terrific UNA team, they will also be fighting a lot of history in this game. C-N is 0-8 all time at Braly Stadium, including three national championship game losses and a 30-14 loss to the Lions earlier this year.
In that first meeting, the Eagles had 314 yards rushing and more total offense than UNA, but turned the ball over four times. It goes without saying that ball security will be a top priority for the Eagles going into this game.
C-N's veer offense can be difficult to stop, but it is probably to UNA's advantage that they have already seen it earlier in the season. There are a couple of different problems the Lions will have to overcome, however. One is that C-N standout running back Buck Wakefield will be in the lineup this time around (he was out with an injury early in the season) and he averages 8.4 yards every time he touches the football. The Eagle passing game is also much better than it was earlier in the season.
The Lions are also a better offensive team now than they were early on, and the Eagles never seem to fare well against great passing offenses. Harrison Beck has many talented receivers to throw the ball to and the C-N defense will have its hands full.
Prediction: The team with the fewest turnovers will win. Both teams are plus 13 in turnover differential this season and with two potent offenses on the field, the team that does the best job of hanging on to the football will prevail. I'm going to go with the Lions for a couple of different reasons. One is the "Braly Curse" that hangs over C-N. Always go with the streak until proven otherwise. The second reason is UNA's athleticism on defense tends to cause turnovers and it will be tough for the Eagle option game to be perfect in that regard. North Alabama 34 Carson-Newman 27.
Super Region Three
Grand Valley State (11-1, 2 seed) at Minnesota-Duluth (11-1, 1 seed)
To me, this is the most interesting game of the quarterfinal round. UMD went to Lubbers Stadium and knocked off the Lakers in double overtime last season on the way to winning a national championship. The Bulldog defense harassed GVSU's Brad Iciek into his worst game as a college quarterback and they will look to do the same on Saturday.
UMD is a big, physical team that dominates the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs are second in the nation in both rush offense and rush defense, and that is a formula for success that has long worked in the game of football. UMD has a great running back in Harlon Hill finalist Isaac Odim, but there is also depth behind him. True freshman quarterback Chase Vogler has been cool under pressure and has also done a terrific job of running the ball this season.
The Lakers are very similar in makeup to many of their past teams. They run and throw the ball equally well offensively, and have a fast defense that has shut down the run especially well this season. Of course with the running game being UMD's strength, something is going to have to give on Saturday.
Prediction: The bottom line to me is this: GVSU has a fifth year senior who is a three-year starter playing quarterback while the Bulldogs start the true freshman. In a game like this where both defenses are so good, the offenses will likely be forced into situations where the quarterback will have to make plays under pressure and I think it's more likely that the senior Iciek can get it done. Grand Valley State 23 Minnesota-Duluth 20.
Super Region Four
Northwest Missouri State (11-1, 2 seed) at Central Washington (12-0, 1 seed)
When West Texas A&M coach Don Carthel mentioned earlier this season after his team had gotten manhandled by the Wildcats that the CWU defensive front seven was the best he had seen this year, it may not have seemed like that big of a deal… until you consider that WTAMU had also played Grand Valley State. Prince Hall and Buddy Wood are two of the best linebackers in D-II and the Wildcats are deep and talented on the line.
Offensively, the Wildcats are far from the prolific unit they were last season with Mike Reilly running the offense. They play a ball control style of offense and rely on the great defense to create field position and scoring opportunities.
What the Wildcats will run into on Saturday is a NWMSU offense that is as balanced and explosive as any they have seen this season. Bearcat quarterback Blake Bolles is the key as he has the arm to stretch defenses, but can also beat teams with his legs, as he did to Abilene Christian last week.
As good as the CWU defense is I believe the key to this game will be whether or not the Wildcats can score enough points. CWU averages under 28 points per game on the year, which of course raises a red flag when facing a defense as good as Northwest's. The Wildcats will have to take advantage of every scoring opportunity and not leave points on the field.
Prediction: It all comes down to scoring for Central Washington. I believe they are good enough on defense to hold the NWMSU offense down, but can the Wildcats' offense put enough points on the board to take advantage? We will find out Saturday. Northwest Missouri State 24 Central Washington 17.
Mailbag
Given the way the playoffs have gone and the scores in the second round, do you think the LSC was just a little overrated?
Jim
Not at all. What happened last weekend is exactly what's supposed to happen when the five and six seeds go on the road in the playoffs against the top two ranked teams in the country. While the LSC didn't have a true national championship contender, it did have 4-5 very solid teams this season. Those teams also did a nice job of out of conference scheduling which led to high strength of schedules and additional playoff spots.
Also, keep in mind that Abilene Christian has now beaten Northwest Missouri State during the regular season each of the last two years, something no MIAA team has done since 2005.
Who would you consider to be the most disappointing team in Division II this season?
Phil
Rather than just pick one, I compiled a short list of disappointing teams:
Michigan Tech (2-8): MTU was thought to be a playoff contender after returning several key players from last season's eight win team. Injuries were a factor, but the Huskies appeared to pack it in after a couple of tough losses to start the season.
Delta State (5-5): The Statesmen returned 14 starters to a team that had not lost a GSC game in over two years. They should have been much better than a .500 team.
Seton Hill (1-10): Maybe the biggest disappointment in D-II this season. The Griffins went from 10-3 with a playoff win in 2008 to going winless against D-II competition this season.
Pittsburg State (5-6): The Gorillas were 11-2 last year and nearly knocked off Northwest Missouri State in the playoffs. But this season PSU suffered its first losing season in 32 years, and mailed it in with a season-ending 21-14 loss to the MIAA's last place team, Truman State.
Indiana (5-6): Despite having a four year starter at quarterback and starting the season 3-0, IUP managed its first losing season in 27 years. Lou Tepper appears to have some rebuilding to do to get this program back on track.
Catawba (4-6): The Indians were considered a top 15 team and one of the favorites in the SAC at the beginning of the season. Instead, Catawba won just once in league play and finished alone in the SAC basement.
Tusculum (3-7): The Pioneers won nine games and reached the second round of the playoffs last year. But this year Tusculum was terrible defensively, finishing dead last in the country in run defense, allowing 275 yards per game.
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