December 7th, 2010 12:00am
The Saturday forecast in Duluth, MN calls for a high of 15 degrees, a low of minus eight, and north winds gusting up to 25 MPH. It will be cold and dark when Northwest Missouri State and Minnesota-Duluth kick off on Saturday night, which begs the question: Why is this a night game while the other semifinal in Cleveland, MS (forecast high: 60) is played during the day?
I don't get it, especially when considering that both games are on the same network and could easily have flipped starting times. Granted, it will be cold in Duluth no matter what, but a little daylight certainly would have helped.
National Semifinals
Shepherd (12-1) at Delta State (10-3)
TV: CBS College Sports (2 PM Eastern)
I don't think anyone could say that these two teams reaching the semifinals was completely unexpected, especially based on the wide open nature this season of their respective regions.
But when you dig a little deeper you'll find that these two teams combined to go just 11-9 last year. Shepherd lost its regular season finale to a 5-6 Glenville State team. And it was just six weeks ago that DSU suffered a 31-7 beating at the hands of North Alabama. So although these are two good teams that are playing their best football of the season, neither team has had smooth sailing to get to this point.
I do think DSU is the favorite coming into this game. The Statesmen have given up 31 points or more on six different occasions this season, but have shored things up in the playoffs. They will also have more overall team speed than any team Shepherd has faced this season.
That said, I do think the Rams have a very good shot of staying in or even winning this game. They are balanced offensively, and have run the ball very well in the playoffs. And although DSU is a tremendous offensive team, the Rams have seen (and beaten) other teams with great offenses in West Liberty and Kutztown. Super Region One teams have generally not fared well in the semifinals, but I think this year will be an exception. Delta State 34 Shepherd 31.
Northwest Missouri State (12-1) at Minnesota-Duluth (13-0)
TV: CBS College Sports (6 PM Eastern)
These two teams have combined to win the last two national championships, have the best overall records in D-II over the last three seasons, and met in the 2008 title game. This is a battle of two heavyweights.
The biggest question coming into this game is this: What will the Bulldogs have left on offense? Star running back Isaac Odim was lost to a season ending knee injury in mid-October and standout receiver/return man D.J. Winfield has been suspended from the team along with starting tight end Ryan Hayes. Starting receiver Ryan Pauley is also out for the season after suffering an injury last week. Although all great programs have depth, the loss of both Odim and Winfield makes the UMD offense far less dynamic.
The Bearcats seemed to "wake up" a bit last week and took the game to Central Missouri versus having to rally from behind like the previous two weeks. It will be important for Northwest to continue with that theme because getting out to an early lead would be big against the Bulldogs, who prefer to control the game with their running game and defense. UMD ran the ball 61 times in the win over Augustana last week.
UMD has a great defense that has scored nine defensive touchdowns this season. Even playing at home in the cold weather, I feel the Bulldogs are going to need a great effort from their defense to win this game because I'm just not sure how a team with a completely new group of receivers can make enough big plays on offense to outscore Northwest. Northwest Missouri State 24 Minnesota-Duluth 17.
Three Harlon Hill Finalists Announced
The Harlon Hill field has been trimmed down to three, with West Liberty quarterback Zach Amedro, Central Missouri quarterback Eric Czerniewski, and Northwest Missouri State quarterback Blake Bolles being the top vote-getters. All three will be at the trophy presentation in Florence on December 17th.
As I mentioned last week, I think Amedro is the odds on favorite to receive the award, but my vote would go to Czerniewski. That opinion has not changed.
Mike Wyatt Passes
Oklahoma Panhandle State head coach Mike Wyatt died Monday of an apparent heart attack. He was just 55 years old. I had never met Coach Wyatt, but have been told he was a good man, a good coach, and had done a good job in restoring respectability to the OPSU program. The OPSU family and Coach Wyatt's family are certainly in my thoughts and prayers at what has to be a very difficult time.
Mailbag
With the University of Sioux Falls football program going D2 next year, what kind of damage do you think they would do in D2 this year? I'd love to see them match up this year Northwest Missouri State. How do you think that game would go??
Doug
It will be very interesting to see how USF does in D2 simply because of how dominant the Cougars have been in the NAIA. They will play for a third straight national championship next week and a fourth in five seasons. They have lost just one game (the 2007 national championship game) over that timeframe.
Just for some historical context, the last major NAIA powerhouse to move to D2 was Findlay in 1998. The Oilers had won two of the previous three NAIA titles at the time they made the move and went 5-5 in their first year playing in D-II. Pittsburg State (moved in 1989) and Carson-Newman (1993) both made the playoffs in their first year in D2 and became immediate national contenders. But of course that was in a different era when the NAIA was a stronger organization.
As far as right now, I think USF would be a playoff team this year in D-II and probably a top 15-20 team overall. They would be able to stay in the game against a team like Northwest Missouri State, but probably wouldn't have enough overall talent or depth to win very often.
The rumor I have heard is that USF and NWMSU will play each other in a non-conference game next year. So although it's not this year and the teams will be different, that potential game could at least give us an idea of how the programs match up.
Contact
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