November 1st, 2011 12:00am
As I was looking at the latest regional rankings, I came to a rather startling conclusion: With just two weeks to go in the regular season there are very few teams that - based on remaining schedules and current resume - I'm willing to say with absolute certainty will be in the playoffs.
This week's games will go a long way towards clearing things up, at least to the point where reasonable predictions can be made going into the final Saturday of what needs to happen for specific teams to reach the postseason.
But there is one interesting factor that is worth examining now as we approach the postseason and it has to do with the semifinal match ups:
One half of the bracket will feature the winner of SR2 versus the winner of SR4. Teams in this bracket like Northwest Missouri State, Delta State, Pittsburg State, Valdosta State and North Alabama all have won national championships and have recent and significant playoff success.
But the other half of the bracket will be very interesting and this is why: Shepherd and California have combined to win SR1 each of the last four seasons. Minnesota-Duluth and Grand Valley State have combined to win SR3 each of the last six seasons. Shepherd and GVSU are unlikely to make the playoffs and while California and UMD are better bets to reach the postseason, neither will be favored to go far if they get in.
So with the traditional powers in this half of the bracket all suffering down seasons, a tremendous opportunity is potentially being created for a new team to not just win either region, but make it all the way to the national championship game. Do not be surprised to see a team like CSU-Pueblo or St. Cloud State reach the national championship game this season because, at this point, they are probably the favorites to get there.
Random News, Notes, and Thoughts from around D2 Football
-An October snowstorm in the Northeast affected several games last weekend, especially Northeast-10 and PSAC East Division Games.
-Bloomsburg lost a game in which they entered the fourth quarter with the lead for just the second time in Danny Hale's 19 seasons as head coach. That is pretty incredible.
-After beating Bloomsburg last week, C.W. Post now turns into huge Husky fans this week. The Pioneers should take care of 1-8 Cheyney and can reach the PSAC title game for the first time ever if Bloomsburg can beat Kutztown. If Kutztown wins, they will advance to the league title game for the first time in school history.
-At the point in which senior quarterback Travis Rearick went down with a season-ending injury, Mercyhurst was 3-1 and leading Gannon by 10 points in the second half. The Lakers went on to lose to Gannon and now sit at 3-6 after overtime losses to IUP and California and a heartbreaking 28-21 loss to Slippery Rock last week. It's been a long year for a team that won the PSAC title and reached the national quarterfinals last year.
-Malone University and Walsh University have both been granted provisional membership by the GLIAC starting in 2012, which will leave the league with 15 football-playing members. Both schools are in the process of moving from the NAIA to D2 and are expected to be full members in the fall of 2013. Interestingly, both also share the same stadium for football.
-There is now a 5-way tie atop the GLIAC, with Indianapolis, Saginaw Valley, Ashland, Wayne State, and Hillsdale all sitting at 6-2 in the league. Even stranger is that Grand Valley isn't one of the five teams involved.
-Mars Hill running back Jonas Randolph set school and conference records with 49 carries and 373 rushing yards in his team's 47-37 win over Tusculum last week. Randolph leads the nation with 1738 rushing yards and has rushed 43 times or more three different times this season.
Top Games this Week
Bloomsburg (8-1) at Kutztown (8-1)
It would seem that Bloomsburg should have fared better in the snow last week than Kutztown, but maybe that's a sign that KU is just as complete a team as BU? The Golden Bears can run the ball, are just as good statistically on defense as the Huskies and KU's Kevin Morton is the best quarterback in the PSAC. Kutztown 28 Bloomsburg 21.
Winston-Salem State (8-0) at UNC-Pembroke (7-2)
Although both schools are in North Carolina, they play in different regions. Still this game has huge playoff ramifications. Travis Daniels for UNCP and Nicholas Cooper for WSSU are two of the most productive backs in the country, but I will go with the Rams in this one because they play better defense. Winston-Salem State 31 UNC-Pembroke 27.
Northwest Missouri State (8-1) at Missouri Western (7-2)
These two teams are big rivals and they met twice last year with MWSU nearly knocking off the Bearcats in the playoffs. The Griffins have quietly won five straight while feasting on the weak part of their schedule, but have not fared well offensively or defensively against the other top teams in the MIAA-- Washburn and Pittsburg State. The Bearcats simply have too many offensive weapons. Northwest Missouri State 41 Missouri Western 27.
West Texas A&M (7-2) at Midwestern State (9-0)
WTAMU can score points and the Buffaloes play respectable defense, especially against the run. But the MSU offensive juggernaut has rushed for at least 290 yards in every game this season and scored 195 points over the last three weeks. Midwestern State 45 West Texas A&M 35.
Washburn (8-1) at Pittsburg State (8-0)
Washburn can potentially create a 3-way tie (along with Northwest Missouri State) at the top of the MIAA standings with a win. But the Gorillas have the MIAA's best running game and defense, and have had a week off to prepare for Dane Simoneau and the Washburn offensive attack. Should be a great game. Pittsburg State 28 Washburn 20.
Edinboro (7-2) at California (7-2)
The Vulcans have showed me something by coming back to beat Mercyhurst in overtime two weeks ago and then rolling over Indiana last week. But, Edinboro is a very solid team with fine quarterback play from Cody Harris. This game will come down to which offense can establish a consistent run game. California 21 Edinboro 16.
West Alabama (7-2) at Delta State (8-1)
Fresh off a big win over North Alabama, UWA can really muck up the GSC and SR2 standings with a win. DSU has just "gotten by" in several games this year and was really gashed by the Valdosta State running game in their last outing. The running game-- led by emerging star Matt Willis at running back-- just happens to be the Tigers' strength. West Alabama 28 Delta State 24.
Wayne State (7-2) at Indianapolis (7-2)
These are two teams going in opposite directions: Indy has won five straight while WSU has dropped two of its last three. WSU has a stronger running game, but it's hard to pick against an Indy team that has turned the ball over just twice all season. Indianapolis 27 Wayne State 23.
Mailbag
[Q] What is your opinion of having conference championship games in D2?
Mark
[A] I don't mind them if done correctly, especially as we continue to trend towards these mega-conferences with 14-16 teams. It gives the large leagues an avenue in which to crown a true champion and a way to possibly improve playoff seeding for the team that wins. So far, conference title games have tended to help more than hurt leagues when it comes to the playoffs.
Right now there are three leagues that have championship games: the PSAC, CIAA, and SIAC. The CIAA and SIAC have a format in which only the league title game is played on the final day of the regular season, but I think the PSAC format is much better.
In the PSAC, everyone plays on the final Saturday. Cross-division games are scheduled for everyone, with the scheduled opponents of the two teams that meet in the championship game playing each other instead. This is a good system because it gives everyone a full regular season schedule while still providing for championship game. The only drawback might be that there is less attention from the rest of the league on the championship game, but let's be honest, do the schools not involved really care that much anyway?
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