November 8th, 2011 12:00am
Would some team please step up and show that they are ready to make a run at a national championship?
Losses last week by top five teams Pittsburg State, Northwest Missouri State and St. Cloud State have cast doubts on their playoff capabilities.
Top-ranked Delta State keeps winning, but the Statesmen almost coughed up a 29-point leading in a 36-34 win over West Alabama. DSU has two overtime wins this fall along with three others by a field goal or less. National championship caliber teams are usually a bit more dominant than that, especially this late in the season.
The only unbeaten teams left in all of D2 are Winston-Salem State, Midwestern State and Colorado State-Pueblo. Did anyone besides a coach, parent, or player on one of those teams have them as a national title contender before the season? I know I didn't.
So, with just a week to go in the regular season, the race to the national title truly is wide open. In a season with so much parity the most important thing is to just find a way to get in the playoffs, because peaking at the right time just might allow a team to come out of nowhere and win a national championship.
What follows is a region by region look at how I see the playoff possibilities going into the final week of the regular season. The latest regional rankings can be found here to help follow along with my logic. Also, if you are interested in the gory details of earned access and a more detailed view of the selection process, the Football Championship Manual can be found here (PDF).
Super Region One
New Haven will be in the playoffs, along with the winner of the CIAA championship game between Winston-Salem State and Elizabeth City State. If ECSU beats WSSU, both teams should claim playoff spots. If WSSU wins, it's likely just one team from the CIAA making the playoffs. I also think WSSU has a great shot at taking the top seed from New Haven in that scenario.
After that, it's very hard to predict in this region. If Kutztown beats Slippery Rock, KU will obviously be in the playoffs. But what happens if Slippery Rock wins? It's very hard to say. My best guess is that SRU would make it in and KU would be out in that scenario.
Then there are the WVIAC teams to look at. West Virginia Wesleyan and Concord play on Saturday with the winner taking the outright league title. Shepherd is hanging around at 10th in the region right now. If WVWC wins, I believe they will be in the playoffs, getting in via earned access if necessary.
But what will be interesting is if Concord wins. Even though Concord isn't even ranked in the region right now, I believe there is a good chance they would jump up into the top eight (that's all that's required for earned access) and make the playoffs. Concord will get a significant strength of schedule boost from playing WVWC and with a win would have the head to head advantage on both Shepherd and WVWC.
California and Bloomsburg both should win easily on Saturday and they need to hope the other games around them break right so that they can stay in the top six or avoid being an earned access victim. Vulcan and Husky fans should be hoping for victories by Kutztown and Winston-Salem State, as those two games will be a major factor.
And finally, I think it would take many upsets (like either Cal or Bloomsburg losing) for Southern Connecticut or Shepherd to have much of a shot at getting in.
Prediction for Sunday:
1. Winston-Salem State
2. New Haven
3. Kutztown
4. California
5. Bloomsburg
6. West Virginia Wesleyan
Super Region Two
Delta State and West Alabama are both locks for the playoffs. DSU can wrap up the top seed by beating West Georgia and will likely get a first round bye even with a loss. UWA plays FCS team Georgia State this week which won't likely affect playoff standing.
North Alabama and Valdosta State play this weekend, with the winner in the playoffs and the loser likely out.
North Greenville can claim a spot with a win over Notre Dame College. NGU should win this game.
So in all likelihood, there are two "open" spots in this region. Second ranked Mars Hill and eighth ranked Lenoir-Rhyne are both from the SAC. If MHC can beat Carson-Newman they will be in, but a loss could open the door for LRC since LRC has the head to head advantage.
Albany State is heavily favored to beat Miles in the SIAC title game and will get in with a win (keep in mind that ASU only needs to stay in the top eight for earned access). If ASU slips up, it would open the door for Morehouse, as Morehouse would likely get into the top eight and is the only other SIAC team represented in the regional rankings.
Prediction for Sunday:
1. Delta State
2. Mars Hill
3. North Greenville
4. West Alabama
5. North Alabama
6. Albany State
Super Region Three
CSU-Pueblo, Nebraska-Kearney and St. Cloud State will be in the playoffs. CSU-Pueblo and UNK have such high strength of schedules that a loss probably doesn't knock either one out of the one and two positions. St. Cloud State is in because they will not lose to a weak Minnesota State-Moorhead team.
Minnesota-Duluth and Minnesota State play each other and the winner will be in the playoffs.
So that leaves two spots with many variables. If Saginaw Valley and Wayne State both win (both have tough games), they both will be in. If one or both lose, it will be very interesting because it could potentially open the door for the UMD-MSU loser along with Hillsdale, Indianapolis or even Colorado Mines (provided they can win against Nebraska-Kearney.
Both SVSU and WSU have good SOS numbers however, and may still make it even with a third loss. There is also quite a matrix of who beat who amongst the GLIAC teams that could factor in, particularly if SVSU loses on Saturday.
Prediction for Sunday:
1. CSU-Pueblo
2. Nebraska-Kearney
3. Wayne State (MI)
4. St. Cloud State
5. Minnesota-Duluth
6. Saginaw Valley State
Super Region Four
Midwestern State, Washburn and Pittsburg State should all be in the playoffs win or lose. Those three teams are playing for byes and home field.
The next three teams in the rankings-- Missouri Western, Abilene Christian and Northwest Missouri State-- will all make the playoffs if they win. All three are heavy favorites, although MWSU has not played that well on the road this season and must make the long trip out to Fort Hays State. That's a game to keep an eye on as far as an upset goes.
The four teams ranked seven through ten must win and hope someone above them loses. I think the pecking order probably stays the same with Ouachita Baptist having the best shot of getting a spot if there is an upset.
There is one other factor to keep in mind: Northeastern State is not in the top ten right now, but has just two D2 losses. The RiverHawks get a shot at knocking off Midwestern State on Saturday, and if they do I think they may enter the conversation as being a possibility to slide into that six spot if there is an upset among the teams currently seeded four through six.
Prediction for Sunday:
1. Midwestern State
2. Washburn
3. Pittsburg State
4. Missouri Western
5. Abilene Christian
6. Northwest Missouri State
Random News, Notes and Thoughts from around D2 Football
-In beating Bloomsburg 52-14 last week, Kutztown won its first PSAC East crown since 1980 and will be going for a first ever overall PSAC title on Saturday. The Golden Bears also ended an 18-game losing streak to Bloomsburg with the win.
-Carson-Newman head coach Ken Sparks will be going for his 300th career coaching win on Saturday against Mars Hill. The Eagles are currently 5-5 and have never had a losing season under Sparks. Plus MHC is fighting for the SAC title and a playoff spot making this a game to keep an eye on.
-Of the top 25 teams in the country in total offense, every single one of them has a .500 or better record. Of the top 25 in total defense, seven of them have losing records. A team does need to play great defense to win championships, but in today's college game you have to score points.
-Tusculum leads the nation in pass defense, allowing just 124 yards per game. But the Pioneers are just 2-8 because they are last in the country in run defense, allowing an astounding 335 yards per game. Carson-Newman racked up 481 yards against the Pioneers last week.
-Central Washington sits at just 3-6 after losing a shocker to Simon Fraser last week. Keep in mind that CWU was the top-ranked team in the country at the close of the 2009 regular season.
Top Games this Week
SIAC Championship Game
Albany State (8-2) vs Miles (6-4)
ASU beat Miles 34-27 earlier in the season, but the Rams have improved as the season has gone on while Miles is coming into this game fresh off a loss to Tuskegee. Miles is a bit better defensively than are the Rams, but Stanley Jennings leads an ASU defense that is the most potent in the conference. Albany State 30 Miles 16.
CIAA Championship Game
Winston-Salem State (10-0) vs Elizabeth City State (8-2)
WSSU won 22-17 in the first meeting between these two teams, but the Rams generally controlled the game. Both teams are great defensively and can run the football, but the difference to me is at the quarterback position where WSSU's Kameron Smith (27 touchdown passes) gives the Rams an advantage. Winston-Salem State 27 Elizabeth City State 17.
PSAC Championship Game
Slippery Rock (8-2) at Kutztown (9-1)
This is an interesting game between the league's top defense (SRU) against the best offense (KU). The difference to me is that the Golden Bears come into this game playing their best football of the season, while SRU has struggled in its last two games, including a loss to Gannon last week. Kutztown 34 Slippery Rock 26.
West Virginia Wesleyan (9-1) at Concord (6-3)
To the winner goes the outright WVIAC title. Plus, WVWC is still very much in the playoff race. CU boasts the league's top defense-- one that has forced 31 turnovers this season. The Bobcats can't run the football and standout quarterback Adam Neugebauer threw five interceptions and was sacked six times in a lost to Charleston last week. Still, I think WVWC will find a way to gut this one out. West Virginia Wesleyan 20 Concord 16.
Saginaw Valley State (7-2) at Grand Valley State (7-3)
SVSU is playing for a playoff berth and is trying to break a 7-game losing streak to the Lakers. GVSU is probably out of the playoff discussion, but they can tie for the GLIAC North Division crown and finish the year on a 7-game winning streak. Both teams are playing well right now, with sophomore signal callers Heath Parling for GVSU and Jonathon Jennings for SVSU being two of the best around. Grand Valley State 28 Saginaw Valley State 27.
Minnesota State (8-2) at Minnesota-Duluth (8-2)
So many storylines to this game. The winner will most likely get a playoff berth while the loser stays home. Both teams have wrapped up titles in their respective divisions in the NSIC, but a MSU loss in this game could created a 4-way tie for the overall league crown. UMD is the more physical team, but MSU does all the little things well like leading the league in 3rd down conversion percentage and red zone offense. This should be a great game, but I'll take the Bulldogs at home. Minnesota-Duluth 24 Minnesota State 19.
Colorado Mines (8-2) at Nebraska-Kearney (9-1)
Mines upset UNK in overtime in the season finale last season, a win that catapulted them into the playoffs while the Lopers watched from home. The Lopers seem to have rebounded from a midseason offensive slump and they should take care of the Orediggers this time. Nebraska-Kearney 31 Colorado Mines 20.
North Alabama (7-2) at Valdosta State (6-3)
Two old rivals going at it with the winner most likely to the playoffs while the loser is out… it doesn't get much better than that. Neither team has been that impressive lately with VSU losers of two straight and UNA winning last week to break its own two game losing streak. I think UNA wins a close one. North Alabama 24 Valdosta State 21.
Midwestern State (9-0) at Northeastern State (7-3)
Fresh off clinching the LSC title and looking ahead to the playoffs, MSU travels to face an NSU team that is red hot. Sounds like the ultimate trap game situation to me. I still think the Mustangs' rushing attack will be too much for NSU, but don't be surprised if this game is close for awhile. Midwestern State 42 Northeastern State 27.
Central Missouri (7-3) at Washburn (9-1)
The Mules are probably out of the playoffs and the Ichabods in no matter what happens, but UCM can (most likely) prevent WU from sharing the MIAA title with a win. That said, the Ichabods are better defensively and more balanced offensively and they should win this game. Washburn 30 Central Missouri 20.
Western Oregon (6-4) at Humboldt State (8-1)
To the winner goes the outright GNAC title. Plus, HSU is fighting to keep its playoff hopes alive. WOU won the first meeting 40-24, forcing four HSU turnovers and harassing HSU quarterback Mike Proulx with five sacks. Playing at home, I think the Lumberjacks will turn the tables on the Wolves. Humboldt State 34 Western Oregon 27.
Mailbag
[Q] How can the NCAA justify having so few teams in region two as compared to the other regions?
Jason
[A] There are really eight all-sports regions in D2. Each of the four super regions in football is simply a combination of all the football teams and conferences from two all-sports regions. This is why the numbers of football teams can vary so much from one region to the next. The regions were not set up with football in mind.
Is this the fairest or the best way to do it? Absolutely not. I have mentioned several times in past columns what I would do to change things in regard to football but I don't foresee any changes to the setup coming. The strict regionalized format we have in D2 is here to stay, unfortunately.
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