November 15th, 2011 12:00am
There is one thing that never seems to change in D2 football: the playoff selection process makes a lot of people upset.
I think there are two reasons for this. One, D2 is the only collegiate level that doesn't grant an automatic postseason bid to its conference champions. Most of the time it works out anyway and league champions make the postseason, but not this year: Hillsdale, Lenoir-Rhyne and Miles would be in the playoffs under any other small college postseason structure.
And secondly, the regional rankings don't "work" in the same fashion that a traditional poll does. People are used to a poll ranking system where teams move up or stay where they are when they win and conversely, they move down when they lose. Instead, teams can win big and fall out of a playoff spot in D2, or lose and barely be effected (see Delta State, Saginaw Valley State, Elizabeth City State and Washburn from last week).
So, what we have is a playoff system that is very abstract and people don't like abstract when it comes to football. People want to know exactly what it takes for their team to reach the playoffs beforehand so that expectations can be set. It is unsettling to know that a team can win its conference outright, only to be passed over for the playoffs by two other teams from the same league.
Brandon Misener and I recorded a podcast-- which can be found on the front page of the site-- with more information on the subject of the playoff system, playoff snubs and more. I encourage you to take a listen.
Playoff Preview
While taking a close look at all 24 playoff teams, I came to this conclusion: the 2011 D2 playoffs are going to be very interesting because there is no clear favorite. I could make a case for six to eight teams that have a chance to bring home a national championship. I also can easily find reasons why those same teams won't win it all.
What follows is a team by team preview of the 2011 playoffs. The teams are listed in order of seed within each region, followed by score predictions for each of the first round games:
Super Region One
Winston-Salem State (11-0)
Strengths: The Rams are a run-first team, but quarterback Kameron Smith has also thrown 28 touchdown passes on just 156 pass completions. The WSSU defense allows just 264 yards per game, including just 74 against the run. The Rams also have tremendous kickoff and punt return teams.
Weaknesses: This team looks great on paper, but the lack of competition in the CIAA is an obvious concern. WSSU doesn't have much of a kicking game, as they have made just three of eight field goals and missed 7 PAT's this year.
Outlook: CIAA teams have traditionally struggled in the postseason, but this isn't your typical team from that conference. Just two years removed from playing Division I football, the Rams have a great deal of talent on their roster and are a strong contender to win this region.
New Haven (10-1)
Strengths: Quarterback Ryan Osiecki is one of D2's best and has thrown 30 touchdown passes this season along with adding eight rushing scores. He has a deep group of receiving targets, making it difficult to key on any one receiver. The Charger defense has been decent against the run and has forced 22 turnovers.
Weaknesses: A lack of quality competition is always a concern with a Northeast-10 team. The better offensive teams have moved the ball with relative ease as the Chargers have given up 32 or more points on four separate occasions. UNH has a net punting average of just 30 yards per kick.
Outlook: Osiecki is a fine quarterback and the Chargers can score points. But I don't think the UNH defense will be able to hold up against the better offensive teams they will see in the playoffs and therefore I don't expect this team to win the region.
Kutztown (10-1)
Strengths: KU averages 39 points and 483 yards per game and can run and throw the football with equal efficiency. The Golden Bear defense struggled during the first half of the season, but has turned it on of late, allowing a total of just 58 points over the last five games. This team is plus 11 in turnover differential and leads the country in yards per kickoff return.
Weaknesses: The health of standout quarterback Kevin Morton. Morton injured his knee during the PSAC championship game last week and his status is unknown for Saturday. KU averages under 30 yards net per punt and has made just two field goals all year, so the kicking game is weak.
Outlook: This team is balanced enough offensively and as long as the defense continues to play well, Kutztown should do well this postseason. With a healthy Morton, Kutztown is good enough to win the region in my opinion.
Elizabeth City (8-3)
Strengths: With the three losses being to Delta State and twice to Winston-Salem State, this team has experience in playing top competition. ECSU is eighth in the country in total defense and is good at forcing turnovers. The Viking offense averages 224 yards per game on the ground.
Weaknesses: The ECSU passing game is poor at best, making it difficult for the offense to score points consistently. The Viking special teams are poor and will be a major disadvantage in the playoffs.
Outlook: ECSU plays good enough defense, but the Vikings are just too one-dimensional on offense and leave too many points on the field in the kicking game to advance very far this postseason. I would be surprised if ECSU can beat California in round one.
California (9-2)
Strengths: The Vulcans are sixth in the country in both total defense and scoring defense and have not allowed more than 28 points in a game this season. California has also forced 32 turnovers. Offensively the Vulcans are more of a passing than running team and have tremendous talent at receiver, led by Thomas Mayo (1141 yards, 13 TDs).
Weaknesses: Although the overall stats look pretty good, in five of eleven games the Vulcans have been held to under 100 rushing yards as a team. The Cal offense has turned the ball over 28 times, including the loss of 19 fumbles. In their two losses, the Vulcan offense has completely disappeared, being limited to just a field goal in each of those games.
Outlook: This team has as much individual talent as any in the region, but for some reason the Vulcans have failed to play at that same high level as a team over the past couple of seasons. With the D2 playoffs so wide open this year, California could go a long way if they can put it all together starting this week.
Concord (7-3)
Strengths: The Mountain Lions take care of the ball offensively, and have committed just 15 turnovers all season. Defensively, Concord allows just 3.4 yards per rush and has forced 33 turnovers, including 21 interceptions.
Weaknesses: Concord's offense struggles in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 51% of all attempts this season. The Mountain Lions average just 14 yards per game more than they give up, so this isn't a dominant team.
Outlook: Concord has thrived this season on doing a better job of taking care of the ball than its opponents. But I don't think the Mountain Lions have the same overall talent of the best teams in the region and I don't expect them to make a long playoff run.
First Round Predictions:
Kutztown 34 Concord 20
California 30 Elizabeth City State 14
Super Region Two
Delta State (9-2)
Strengths: The Statesmen average 471 yards of offense per game and have the ability to run and throw the football. They have thrived in close games, with two overtime wins and three more wins by a field goal or less. The defense is predicated on speed and has 19 interceptions this season. There are 39 seniors on the roster, so DSU has a team full of guys that have played a lot of college football.
Weaknesses: DSU has committed 30 turnovers and 119 penalties, which has helped to keep many opponents in the game. Valdosta State and West Alabama have both run for over 250 yards against the Statesmen and DSU has yielded 33 points or more in each of their last three outings. Senior quarterback Micah Davis has thrown 16 interceptions already this year and DSU doesn't have the overall talent at receiver that they did last year.
Outlook: Maybe last week's loss was a wakeup call, but this team has not played as well this season as its record and ranking would suggest. If the Statesmen can clean up the turnovers and penalties, they have a shot at making it back to Florence, but I'm certainly not counting on it.
Mars Hill (8-2)
Strengths: Senior running back Jonas Randolph has been a workhorse, rushing 328 times for 1970 yards and 17 touchdowns. The Mountain Lions average 451 yards per game of total offense and throw the ball just well enough to open things up for Randolph. MHC has thrived in close games, going 4-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.
Weaknesses: This is not a good defensive team. MHC gives up 383 yards and 29 points per game which is poor for a playoff team. The reliance on Randolph is so heavy that the Mountain Lions can't afford to be without him or have the opposing defense shut him down. The kicking game is weak as MHC has missed six PAT's this year.
Outlook: Mars Hill isn't a great team, but they play in a wide open bracket, so it's definitely possible for the Mountain Lions to win a game and reach the region championship. This is not a team that is a threat to win the region, however.
North Greenville (9-2)
Strengths: The Crusaders have won seven straight games and have been especially dominant over the last month. NGU relies on a rushing attack that averages 250 yards per game but senior quarterback Willie Korn has been the difference maker, throwing 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions over the last six games. The Crusader defense allows just 291 yards per game and has intercepted 16 passes.
Weaknesses: The NGU defense has very few sacks, but part of that may be because they played a run heavy SAC schedule. The two real passing teams the Crusaders have faced have racked up the yards through the air, so it remains to be seen how NGU would fare against a team that can really throw the football.
Outlook: North Greenville is playing very well and is my favorite to advance to the region final from this bracket. I don't think NGU has the overall ability of a team like DSU or UNA, but Clemson transfer Korn is a real talent and his presence gives this team a chance against just about anyone.
West Alabama (8-3)
Strengths: Matt Willis is one of the country's top running backs, and he has rushed for 100 yards or more in nine straight outings. The Tigers take care of the football and are plus 11 in turnover differential this year. UWA is solid against the run, allowing more than 200 yards in a game to just one D2 opponent (Harding).
Weaknesses: Quarterback Kyle Caldwell has done a good job running the offense, but he is just a true freshman. Good quarterbacks have thrown the ball well against UWA, largely because the Tigers haven't done a great job getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The return games on special teams are ordinary at best.
Outlook: I like this team, and I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see the Tigers beat UNA again this week. But the offense is heavily reliant on Willis' running and if a team can figure out a way to slow that down, it would put a great deal of pressure on Caldwell to carry the load. I won't rule out UWA winning the region, but I like UNA and DSU a bit better.
North Alabama (8-2)
Strengths: Senior quarterback Lee Chapple has thrown for 2764 yards and 21 touchdowns this season. The Lions have several D-I transfers and are as athletic as any team in the playoffs. Cornerback/ return man Janoris Jenkins is lethal in the open field, especially returning punts and kickoffs. The Lions give up just 18 points per game and play great red zone defense, allowing touchdowns on less than 50% of opponent trips this season.
Weaknesses: UNA's running game is below average, which puts a great deal of pressure on Chapple. The Lions have managed just 12 sacks, so the pass rush is lacking. Two different UNA kickers have combined to connect on just six of 14 field goal attempts, with seven of those misses inside of 40 yards.
Outlook: The Lions have the talent to win this region if they can take care of the football and stay disciplined. They will potentially have the opportunity to avenge both of their regular season losses in the first two rounds. If that happens and they can get on a roll, UNA could potentially make it to the national championship game.
Albany State (8-3)
Strengths: ASU does a good job stopping the run, allowing just 86 yards per game on the ground this season. The Rams aren't prolific offensively from a yardage standpoint, but they are balanced and have scored 33 points per game this year. Senior quarterback Stanley Jennings is the two-time SIAC Offensive Player of the Year and has thrown 24 touchdown passes.
Weaknesses: Inconsistency. The Rams have played very well at times this year, but have also struggled against teams they should beat, like Miles last week in the SIAC championship game. This is probably the weakest the ASU defense has been over the last several years and it is susceptible to good passing attacks.
Outlook: The Rams have struggled in the playoffs in the past with much better teams that this one. But ASU does have the benefit this year of being in the opposite bracket from the Gulf South teams, so that is a positive. All in all it's very difficult to envision ASU doing much in the playoffs this year.
First Round Predictions:
North Greenville 28 Albany State 19
North Alabama 27 West Alabama 24
Super Region Three
Colorado State-Pueblo (11-0)
Strengths: The Thunderwolves are likely to play at home throughout the postseason, and they have given up just 23 points total in six home games. They lead the country in scoring defense (9 points allowed per game), and are third in both run defense and pass efficiency defense. Kicker Kyle Major is 22 of 29 on field goals this year. This team has 44 upperclassmen on its roster so it is a team with veteran leadership.
Weaknesses: CSU-Pueblo is not prolific offensively. The running game is well above average, but the Thunderwolves haven't really been put in a position where they have to open things up and throw the football. This has to be a concern as they may not be able to completely rely on defense to win games in the postseason.
Outlook: This is a good football team that is well coached and has a great deal of senior leadership. The Thunderwolves aren't as good offensively as the great Minnesota-Duluth national championship teams were, but they are similar to those Bulldog teams in many respects. This is ironic because UMD just might be the second round opponent. If CSU-Pueblo can win its playoff opener, there is reason to believe this team has what it takes to make it to Florence this fall.
Nebraska-Kearney (10-1)
Strengths: The Lopers' no-huddle offense has been unstoppable at times, averaging 527 yards per game. The defense is very good, allowing just under 300 yards per game and has forced a remarkable 39 turnovers this season. A couple of top skill position players missed time with injuries, but everyone seems to be getting healthy going into the playoffs.
Weaknesses: Turnovers. UNK has committed 32 of them this season, including five games of three or more. The Lopers rely heavily on senior quarterback Jake Spitzlberger's running and passing and they cannot afford to be without him for any length of time.
Outlook: UNK probably has the most overall talent of any team in this region. If the Lopers can do a better job of protecting the football, they can play into December. But one four or five turnover game is all it would take to put an end to the Lopers' run.
St. Cloud State (9-2)
Strengths: The SCSU defense allows just 15 points per game and is very good against both the run and pass. The Huskies have run for 236 yards per game this year behind a physical offensive line and a deep group of running backs. Quarterback Philip Klaphake is an excellent runner and a difficult player for defenses to game plan for.
Weaknesses: The Huskies lack a big play threat at wide receiver to stretch the field and loosen up defenses. SCSU has not played that well away from home this season and has had a handful of games where they have struggled to put points on the board.
Outlook: SCSU has a lot of good football players and enough talent to play with any team in the country. What I question is whether the Huskies have enough playmaking ability on offense to string together several wins in the playoffs.
Minnesota-Duluth (9-2)
Strengths: The Bulldogs are extremely well coached and don't beat themselves with penalties and turnovers. UMD runs the football (246 yards per game) and plays great defense (271 yards allowed per game) like the national championship Bulldog teams. Junior quarterback Chase Vogler has consistently come up with big plays at crunch time over the course of his career and the UMD offensive line is intact from last year.
Weaknesses: In UMD's two losses, they were unable to run the football and in turn unable to do much of anything offensively. The Bulldogs are very young at wide receiver and lack much playmaking ability at that position. Even though the Bulldogs have been solid defensively, they have forced just ten turnovers this season.
Outlook: The first team that can slow down the UMD rushing attack will be the team that takes them out of the playoffs. The Bulldogs do all of the little things well and will be a tough match up for anyone, but I think UMD is a year away from making another national championship run.
Saginaw Valley (7-3)
Strengths: Sophomore quarterback Jonathon Jennings is becoming a star and is capable of doing damage both running and throwing. The Cardinals aren't great offensively, but they have scored at least 20 points in every game this season.
Weaknesses: The Cardinals are below average defensively and have been run over by the better offenses they have faced, including 541 yards by Grand Valley State last week. The kick and punt return games are so-so and SVSU has one of the worst net punting averages in the country.
Outlook: SVSU isn't good enough defensively to go far in the postseason and I will be surprised if they able to win their first round game at UMD. It will take big performances from Jennings for this team to do much in the postseason.
Wayne State (8-3)
Strengths: Running backs Josh Rennel and Toney Davis have combined for over 1900 yards and 24 touchdowns and receiver Troy Burrell is a big play threat as well. The WSU special teams are solid and the defense does a respectable job against the run.
Weaknesses: The Warriors come into the playoffs as losers of three of their last five games, so this is not a team on the rise. The pass defense has been shredded to the tune of 245 yards per game, including 12 touchdown passes over the last four games.
Outlook: WSU actually matches up pretty well with first round opponent SCSU in the sense that the Huskies don't have the passing attack to expose the Warriors' weakness. But even if WSU could find a way to win in the opening round, I don't think this team has what it takes to advance far in the postseason.
First Round Predictions:
St. Cloud State 27 Wayne State 23
Minnesota-Duluth 31 Saginaw Valley State 20
Super Region Four
Midwestern State (10-0)
Strengths: MSU is an offensive powerhouse. The Mustangs have arguably the best offensive line in D2 and have scored 51 rushing touchdowns. Four different players have at least 558 rushing yards making it tough for defenses to key on any one player. The MSU defense is strong against the run, allowing just 101 yards per game on the ground.
Weaknesses: After having just six turnovers through their first eight games, the Mustangs have had ball security issues of late, with a combined eight turnovers over the last two weeks. Despite the job the MSU defense does against the run, they have forced just 15 turnovers and has been porous at times against the pass.
Outlook: Many high flying LSC teams have gotten to the playoffs with unbeaten records lately, only to be brought back to earth by an MIAA team. If MSU can win a tough second round match up with either NWMSU or MWSU, then they certainly are capable of competing and beating anyone in D2.
Pittsburg State (9-1)
Strengths: The Gorillas had the top defense and rushing attack in the MIAA this season, two hallmarks of championship teams. This team is experienced and has the type of senior leadership it takes to advance in the postseason. Receiver John Brown is a threat to score from anywhere on the field and is one of the best return men in the country.
Weaknesses: PSU has had two of its poorest defensive games over the last two weeks, leaving me to wonder if opponents are starting to find some chinks in the armor. The Gorillas have also lost 15 fumbles this season and turnovers are always a concern with a team that runs a lot of option.
Outlook: If the defense gets its mo-jo back, this is a team capable of winning the region and even a national championship with a break or two along the way. A possible second round rematch with Washburn (PSU's only loss of the season) would be very interesting.
Washburn (9-2)
Strengths: In my opinion, senior quarterback Dane Simoneau is the best this year in D2. He spreads the ball around to many different receivers, making it tough for defenses to defend. The Washburn defense has forced 28 turnovers and has generally done a good job in getting after the opposing quarterback.
Weaknesses: In the two games Washburn has lost, they have struggled to establish the run and have had their pass defense shredded by opposing quarterbacks. The Ichabods have fumbled the ball 24 times this season, but fortunately have lost just nine.
Outlook: This is a good football team. The Ichabods will be favored against Abilene Christian and a victory there would be a trip back to Pittsburg State, where WU won by 18 points two weeks ago. Ultimately, I think an athletic team like Northwest Missouri State would give the Ichabods the most trouble, but this team certainly has the ability to win the region if a few breaks go their way.
Missouri Western (9-2)
Strengths: After a 2-2 start to the season, the Griffons discovered their identity as a running team and they have used an attack that averages 254 yards per game on the ground to grind out seven straight wins. The Griffons aren't flashy defensively, but they have recorded 37 sacks and 19 interceptions. Senior kicker Greg Zuerlein is the best in D2. He has connected on 20 of 21 field goals and has almost unlimited range.
Weaknesses: MWSU has a weak passing game, so running the football and staying within striking distance of the opponent on the scoreboard are paramount. The Griffons are a solid overall team, but they don't have as much high end talent as many of the other teams in this region.
Outlook: The Griffons obviously have a tough draw in the rematch with Northwest Missouri State. But this is a team that is playing its best football of the season and if the Griffons can get by the Bearcats again, they could be a major factor in the region.
Northwest Missouri (9-2)
Strengths: Despite injuries during the season to starting quarterback Blake Christopher and star receiver Jake Soy, the Bearcats are the top offensive team in the country. They have scored 52 points or more in eight of eleven games and have a multitude of playmakers with speed. The Bearcat return units are also outstanding, as they have scored four touchdowns on kickoff and punt returns this year.
Weaknesses: The Northwest defense is not great and has struggled most with powerful running games and running quarterbacks. Injuries are a concern offensively and the Bearcat offensive system is predicated on timing and speed, which could be disrupted by poor weather this late in the season.
Outlook: The Bearcats certainly have the talent to make a deep playoff run, but first round opponent Missouri Western (who the Bearcats lost to two weeks ago) and potential second round opponent Midwestern State have the type of offensive systems that can give Northwest trouble. Another run to the national championship game is certainly a possibility, but it won't be easy to get out of this region.
Abilene Christian (8-2)
Strengths: Mitchell Gale is one of D2's top quarterbacks, throwing for 3317 yards and 24 touchdowns this season. He leads an offense that averages 490 yards per game. ACU has a talented defensive line and has racked up 36 sacks this season.
Weaknesses: Despite the defensive line talent, the back end of the ACU defense is just average and they give up 425 yards per game of total offense. The Wildcat defense has forced just 15 turnovers and has been shredded at times, including a 740 yard performance by Midwestern State.
Outlook: I don't think this is the year that the Wildcats will be making a long playoff run. With their defensive struggles, ACU does not match up well with first round opponent Washburn.
First Round Predictions:
Washburn 35 Abilene Christian 27
Northwest Missouri State 41 Missouri Western 30
Mailbag
[Q] Who were the best teams this year to miss out on the playoffs?
Greg
[A] Grand Valley (8-3): The Lakers were playing great football at the end of the year and I think they would have had a decent shot at getting to the national championship game had they qualified.
West Texas A&M (7-3): The Buffaloes three losses were to teams that combined to go 29-2. This was probably the best defensive team Don Carthel has had in his time at WTAMU.
Hillsdale (8-3): The Chargers won the GLIAC outright and their three losses this year were by a total of seven points.
Humboldt State (9-1): I believe HSU is the first one-loss team to be left out since Carson-Newman in 2007. They won the GNAC and knocked off FCS program California-Davis along the way.
Lenoir-Rhyne (7-3): LRC got on a roll late in the season, and also had blowout victories over playoff teams Concord and Mars Hill.
Shepherd (9-2): The Rams led the country in total defense and were playing very good football late in the season. They simply lost the wrong two games.
Central Missouri (8-3): UCM manhandled playoff team Washburn in the season finale and the Mules' three losses were to playoff teams.
Bloomsburg (9-2): It's hard to believe that this team was ranked third in the country just three weeks ago.
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