November 29th, 2011 12:00am
Maybe Ron Roberts has this entire thing figured out.
Last season his Delta State team limped through the regular season, finishing with three losses. His Statesmen then turned it on in the playoffs, nearly winning the national championship.
Fast forward to this year and it's starting to look like this is becoming a trend at DSU. Despite the fact that the Statesmen were the top-ranked team in D2 for much of the year, they never really looked the part, winning several close games before falling to West Georgia in the regular season finale.
But just like 2010, DSU (10-2) appears to be coming together at the right time. The Statesmen thrashed North Alabama 42-14 on Saturday, playing by far their best football of the season in the process. It certainly appears as if Roberts has his team on track to make a run at the championship.
For the record, I have never subscribed to the theory that a football team can just "survive" the regular season, then regroup and put it all together in the playoffs. History would be on my side in this: the 1996 and 1997 Northern Colorado teams are the only ones in the past 25 years to win the national championship after losing more than one game in the regular season.
Something tells me that none of this matters to Roberts and his Statesmen. In fact, he told the Clarion Ledger newspaper that in beating UNA, the Statesmen have already eliminated their strongest competition for the national championship.
Roberts' approach is definitely gutsy and in an odd way refreshing. With the self-appointed bull's eye now firmly in place, let's see if the Statesmen can get it done and win it all.
Other Second Round Playoff Thoughts
-Windy conditions were a major factor in every SR3 and SR4 playoff game last weekend, along with DSU/UNA game in SR2. It's the time of the year when teams must be complete enough to not be at a disadvantage in extreme weather.
-Mars Hill's Jonas Randolph broke the SAC rushing record with a 4-yard run on the final play of his team's 58-32 loss to North Greenville. Randolph ran for 31 yards on three carries in the final minute of the game to finish his career with 5608 rushing yards.
-The turnover bug that has plagued Nebraska-Kearney all season really cost the Lopers last week. They committed six in their 38-26 loss to Wayne State and finished the year with 38 turnovers. This was a team that had the talent to do more if they could have taken care of the football.
-Even in defeat, it was very refreshing to read some of the quotes attributed to Colorado State-Pueblo coach John Wristen. To paraphrase, Wristen said his program will build off the defeat and is committed to eventually playing for national championships.
-I mentioned in my column earlier this season how sometimes one or two plays end up defining an entire season. Unfortunately for Midwestern State, a missed 27-yard field goal that would have won the game in regulation against Northwest Missouri State is something that could haunt MSU for a long time.
-Minnesota-Duluth has reinstated senior wide receiver/ return specialist D.J. Winfield after he served a one-year suspension for violation of team rules. Winfield was the team's leading receiver from 2008-10 (2772 career receiving yards along with 27 TD receptions) and one of the most dangerous return men in the country. I have no idea what if any role Winfield will play on Saturday, but if he is in game shape he will provide the big play threat the Bulldogs have been lacking.
Harlon Hill Finalists
Adam Neugebauer SR QB West Virginia Wesleyan
Key Stats: 4111 passing yards, 40 touchdowns; 154 QB rating
What's to like: Neugebauer led his team to a 9-2 record, despite the fact that the Bobcats had no running game and an average defense. He led the nation in pass attempts with 521 and threw for 300 yards or more in every game this season.
What's not to like: He threw five interceptions in a late-season upset loss to Charleston, when a win could have clinched a WVIAC title and most likely a playoff berth. Playing in the WVIAC, he also didn't face the quality competition that many of the other quarterback finalists saw during the year.
Rashaad Slowley SR RB Southern Connecticut State
Key Stats: 1584 rushing yards, 233 receiving yards, 29 total touchdowns
What's to like: Slowley rushed for over 100 yards in each of his team's final nine games and scored at least one touchdown in every game this season. He was the nation's third leading rusher and MVP of the Northeast-10 conference.
What's not to like: It's hard to find many negatives to Slowley's game, other than the fact that he didn't play against strong competition week in and week out.
Lee Chapple SR QB North Alabama
Key Stats: 3322 passing yards, 24 touchdowns; 141 QB rating
What's to like: Chapple had six 300 yard games and threw a touchdown pass in 11 of 12 games this.
What's not to like: Chapple had a good season, but not Harlon Hill caliber. He was not the GSC's first team all-conference quarterback, losing out to Micah Davis from Delta State.
Micah Davis SR QB Delta State
Key Stats: 3207 passing yards, 22 touchdowns; 12 rushing touchdowns; 133 QB rating
What's to like: Davis is now 4-1 in the playoffs in his career and had his best all-around game of the year last week in the playoff win over UNA. He has a knack for making plays at just the right time in the big games and has a nose for the end zone when running the football.
What's not to like: Davis has thrown a lot of interceptions (16) and his pass efficiency rating of 133 is just 46th in the country and the lowest among any of the quarterback finalists.
Jonas Randolph SR RB Mars Hill
Key Stats: 2170 rushing yards, 18 touchdowns
What's to like: Randolph literally carried his team to a conference title and playoff berth this season, averaging 33 rush attempts per game and leading the nation in rushing by over 500 yards. He had six 200 yard games, including a SAC record 373 yards against Tusculum.
What's not to like: The only negative I can find is that his 18 rushing touchdowns were actually a bit low when compared to the other running back finalists and his number of rushing attempts.
Joe Glendening JR RB Hillsdale
Key Stats: 1600 rushing yards, 270 receiving yards, 31 total touchdowns
What's to like: Despite missing a game due to injury, he led the nation in scoring with 186 points and was the second leading rusher in the country. He was also an effective receiver out of the backfield.
What's not to like: Of the top 15 rushers in the country, Glendening had the lowest average per rush at 4.92 yards per carry. That's still a solid average, but other backs proved to be more explosive.
Jake Spitzlberger SR QB Nebraska-Kearney
Key Stats: 1075 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns, 2656 passing yards, 21 touchdowns
What's to like: I mentioned at midseason that Spitzlberger was my favorite for the award. He ended up as the top rushing quarterback in the country and had solid passing statistics.
What's not to like: Turnovers, especially in the big games. He threw 16 interceptions this season, including four in UNK's regular season loss to CSU-Pueblo. He also turned it over five times on Saturday in the playoff loss to Wayne State.
Brandon Kelsey JR QB Midwestern State
Key Stats: 967 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns; 1951 passing yards, 17 touchdowns; 158.8 QB rating
What's to like: Kelsey was the triggerman for a MSU offense that led the country in total offense.
What's not to like: Kelsey's individual numbers are very good, but not up to par with other top quarterbacks in the country this season.
Dane Simoneau SR QB Washburn
Key Stats: 4089 passing yards, 38 touchdowns; 150 QB rating
What's to like: I've said it each of the last two weeks and I'll say it again: I believe Simoneau is the best quarterback in D2 this season. He had a great year statistically and was named Offensive Player of the Year in D2's toughest conference. The only game this year in which he didn't throw at least two touchdown passes was when he attempted just eight passes against a poor Lincoln University team.
What's not to like: Simoneau had his poorest game of the season in last week's playoff loss to Pittsburg State, completing just 14 of 40 passes in windy conditions in Pittsburg.
Opinion: I don't think there is an obvious runaway favorite this year but if I were voting my finalists would be Randolph, Simoneau and Neugebauer. I wouldn't have a major issue with any of the three winning the award, but Randolph gets a slight edge in my book.
Playoff Games this Week
Super Region One Final
New Haven (11-1) at Winston-Salem State (12-0)
Last week WSSU knocked off California and its potent pass attack by completely shutting down the running game. They will face the same task this week against a New Haven team led by quarterback Ryan Osiecki, who threw five touchdown passes in his team's win over Kutztown. UNH will still score some points, but I feel they will have a difficult time slowing down a diverse WSSU offense. Winston-Salem State 40 New Haven 31.
Super Region Two Final
North Greenville (11-2) at Delta State (10-2)
DSU played by far its best game of the season last week in dismantling North Alabama and they will be taking on a NGU team that is also on a late season tear. The Statesmen have a little more overall talent, but the Crusader spread option offense is capable of causing DSU problems, especially if quarterback Willy Korn continues to play so well. I think this game will be fairly close, but DSU's talent and playoff experience will be the difference. Delta State 37 North Greenville 27.
Super Region Three Final
Wayne State (MI) (10-3) at Minnesota-Duluth (11-2)
The Warriors seem to be one of those teams that limp into the playoffs but then catch fire when given a new lease on life. With two talented running backs and a big play receiver in Troy Burrell, WSU also has the offensive firepower to give the Bulldog defense some trouble. But, as I've been saying since the playoffs started, a team will have to significantly slow down the UMD running game to knock them off and I don't know if the Warriors are quite good enough to do it. Minnesota-Duluth 21 Wayne State 20.
Super Region Four Final
Northwest Missouri State (11-2) at Pittsburg State (10-1)
Two months ago, the Gorillas rallied from a 28-6 halftime deficit to beat the Bearcats 38-35. Although I think the final score of this game to be close as well, I don't think there will be the wild momentum swings with both team's seasons on the line. I really feel the outcome of this game will come down to the performance of the Bearcat defense. Northwest was pushed around at times by Midwestern State last week and they must do a better job against the PSU running game. I think this game could go either way, but I'm not about to pick against a team that has won the region six straight years. Northwest Missouri State 31 Pittsburg State 27.
Mailbag
[Q] Its another year of playoff frustration for us North Alabama fans. How can we have all this talent transfer in and still lose every year when it counts?
Jim
[A] I don't think UNA has made a strong enough commitment to running the football over the last several seasons and it comes back to haunt them come playoff time. I believe that when teams are committed to running the football, it brings a different mentality and toughness to the entire team.
With all of the talent on the roster, the Lions can win most regular season games by simply being more athletic than their opponents. They can do what they want offensively because other than a couple of the Gulf South teams they play, no one has talent to match up.
But when it comes to the playoffs, the game generally becomes more like the NFL in the sense that the teams are much closer in talent level and the team that can run the football better and stop the run better has the advantage. It's still possible to win a game or two with a pass heavy offense, but very difficult to win the four or five straight it takes to win a championship without a strong running game. Case in point: seven of the eight teams playing this weekend (New Haven being the lone exception) are either very balanced offensively or run first teams. And most of them also have hard-nosed defenses that reflect their offensive style.
In UNA's last four playoff losses, they have been out-rushed 1057 to 190 so the problem is obvious. This season UNA averaged nearly 425 yards per game with nearly 300 of it coming through the air. If the Lions could get that split closer to 200 rushing/225 passing, you would see a completely different team capable of winning more games this time of the year.
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