October 16th, 2012 12:00am
With a month to go in the regular season, the list of unbeaten D2 teams is as follows:
CSU-Pueblo
Minnesota State
Winston-Salem State
New Haven
Bloomsburg
Ashland
Ouachita Baptist
Shippensburg
Henderson State
Emporia State
Of those ten teams, just three-- CSU-Pueblo, Winston-Salem State and New Haven-- reached the playoffs last year. And while there are a few programs on the list that have been solid over the years or have come on recently, I do not think anyone would categorize any of these teams as national powers.
What this further illustrates is the strangeness of the 2012 season. Usually by this time of the year I can start to pick out a few teams with national championship potential. This year it is much more difficult because many of the traditional powers have major weaknesses or are having down years while many on the unbeaten list are unproven or in some cases just plain fortunate to be without a loss.
So, one of two things is going to happen. Either a few teams will increase their level of play to what a D2 championship team typically looks like or the door will be wide open for whoever can stay healthy and catch enough breaks to win it all in a year where there does not appear to be any truly great teams. The list of teams with that kind of potential is still quite long at this point. With so much parity, the remainder of the 2012 season promises to be very interesting.
Thoughts from Last Week
-Like last season, the Fall Classic at Arrowhead was decided by a big second half swing in momentum. The 14-0 Pittsburg State second half lead was looking pretty safe considering that Northwest Missouri State had a total of just 80 yards of offense at the time. But the Bearcats completed turned the tables on the Gorillas, scoring 31 points the rest of the way to win 31-21. It is becoming clear that with PSU quarterback Anthony Abenoja not being much of running threat, the Gorillas may have trouble running the football against the really good defense.
-Henderson State sophomore quarterback Kevin Rodgers continued his tremendous season with 466 passing yards and five touchdowns passes in a 38-10 win over Harding. For the season Rodgers has thrown for 2485 yards and 33 touchdowns for the 7-0 Reddies. HSU not only looks like a team capable of reaching the playoffs, but also one that could be a factor once there.
-As great as a season as Rodgers is having, Shippensburg quarterback Zach Zulli has even more impressive statistics. Zulli has thrown for 2723 yards and 33 touchdowns with just three interceptions this season.
-The only playoff eligible team in all of Super Region Two with less than two losses is Miles College. In contrast, there are 13 teams in Super Region Three with less than two losses. Obviously, some undeserving teams for SR2 will make the postseason while some deserving teams from SR3 are likely to be left at home.
-Southwest Minnesota State nearly pulled the upset of the year last week at 2nd-ranked Minnesota State. The Mustangs led by 14 points in the fourth quarter, but the Mavericks rallied to tie the game and eventually won it in the second overtime. Keep in mind that SMSU (2-5) was the same team that Minnesota-Crookston defeated to end its 39-game NSIC losing streak earlier this year.
-Of the top six teams in our poll, two of them (top ranked CSU-Pueblo and sixth ranked New Haven) did not have football teams five years ago. Just proves that it is possible to win big at the D2 level if a school is willing to put forth maximum effort. D2 fans will get a chance this week to see UNH in action as the Chargers take on Stonehill Thursday night on the CBS College Sports Network.
Top Games this Week
Mercyhurst (6-1) at IUP (6-1)
Mercyhurst gave up 59 points in a non-conference loss to Notre Dame College to open the season, but has quietly won six straight games to remain a factor in the PSAC West. Both teams like to run the football and play solid defense, but IUP does it better. IUP 28 Mercyhurst 17.
Saginaw Valley State (6-1) at Hillsdale (5-2)
Jon Jennings and the Cardinal passing game can give any opponent fits. But the Chargers have Joe Glendening in the backfield and a strong defense. Hillsdale 28 Saginaw Valley State 24.
Mars Hill (5-2) at Lenoir-Rhyne (4-2)
The Mountain Lions sit at a perfect 4-0 in the SAC and will be taking on a talented LRC team that was picked as the preseason favorite in the league. I feel the Bears are the favorite as they are playing at home and have been tremendous defensively in the last three weeks. Lenoir-Rhyne 24 Mars Hill 20.
Minnesota State (7-0) at Winona State (6-1)
Despite having the all-time leading rusher in NSIC history in Rayon Simmons (4215 career rushing yards), WSU has been struggling of late on the offensive side of the ball. MSU is very average offensively as well, so expect a game dominated by defense. Winona State 20 Minnesota State 17.
Harding (5-1) at Ouachita Baptist (6-0)
HU runs for 295 yards per game and gives up just 90. OBU runs for 248 yards per game and gives up 76. Needless to say, something will have to give in this game. I expect this to be a close game that could go either way. Ouachita Baptist 27 Harding 24.
Shippensburg (7-0) at West Chester (5-2)
WCU has been solid this season, but Zach Zulli and the Shippensburg passing attack (423 yards per game through the air) are something special. Plus, the Red Raiders play solid defense as well which makes for a tough combination. Shippensburg 42 West Chester 28.
Chadron State (5-2) at New Mexico Highlands (6-1)
NMHU has become the bad boys of the RMAC with their aggressive style earning lots of penalties and not many admirers around the league. But there is no question that the style has been effective as the Cowboys are off to a tremendous start. The Eagles have only lost once against Division II competition - in overtime at top-ranked CSU-Pueblo - so the Eagles are no slouch either. Chadron State 31 New Mexico Highlands 24.
Missouri Western (6-1) at Pittsburg State (5-1)
With both teams coming off a tough loss, expect this to be a hard fought game between two teams that cannot afford another loss. The Griffons have not been as good defensively in the last few games and that is a concern against a Gorilla offense that throws the football very well. On the other hand, PSU struggled to stop the Northwest Missouri running game in the second half last week and that is a concern against Michael Hill and a MWSU rushing attack that averages 281 yards per game. This should be a good one. Pittsburg State 27 Missouri Western 23.
Mailbag
[Q] What will it take for the GAC to earn some respect nationally?
Kevin
[A] Win in the playoffs. The GAC did not have a team reach the playoffs last year, and outside of Harding beating North Alabama 31-10 in September, there were not any impressive wins in non-conference play this season. Add all of this to the fact that this conference was formed by what amounts to the less competitive teams from the LSC and GSC, and people will be skeptical until proven otherwise.
That said, I do think several teams from this league have taken a big step forward this year. Harding, Ouachita Baptist and Southern Arkansas are in my opinion improved from a season ago. The team I really like, however, is Henderson State. I think the Reddies are capable of playing with almost anyone in D2 this year and will get a chance to prove themselves against some very good Super Region Three competition if they can reach the playoffs.
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