November 13th, 2012 12:00am
I make my determination on the amount of controversy in the playoff selections each year by my inbox in the first 24 hours after the selection show. In some years there are many angry emails from fans who feel that their team did not get a fair shake. This season I have received just two complaint emails.
That does not mean that people are necessarily pleased with the process, because I believe that the majority are not. As I have mentioned many times over the years, the strict regionalization and a lack of auto-berths for league champions are two of the biggest problems D2 has with the process.
But the lack of complaints does mean that within each region anyway, there was not much controversy this year. In many ways we can thank Saginaw Valley State for that. Had Grand Valley State hung on to beat SVSU (the Lakers lost 55-52 on a touchdown pass with nine seconds left) the final playoff spot in Super Region Four would likely have come down to West Texas A&M (who did make the field) and GVSU. With WTAMU and GVSU being two of the largest fan bases in Division II, I can guarantee that I would have heard extensively from both sides on that controversy.
We will have two new teams in the national championship game as Pittsburg State and Wayne State (MI) are out of the field. Just one of the 2011 semifinalists (Winston-Salem State) is back in the running this season. Just eight of the 24 participants were in the playoffs last year.
That does not mean that you should automatically expect two teams with little playoff experience to make it to Florence. The two teams that have had the most playoff success over the last four years-- Minnesota-Duluth and Northwest Missouri State-- are both in the field. There is also quite a list of playoff regulars that are back in it after at least a year away. Carson-Newman, Valdosta State, Indiana, West Texas A&M, Chadron State and Bloomsburg are all programs in that category.
As I have mentioned a couple of different times over the last month, there is not a team that really jumps out at me as a heavy favorite to win it all this year. With the amount of non-conference play across the entire division reducing as each year goes by, it increases the difficulty in determining who the legit contenders are. The regions are also restructured this year, which adds further intrigue. Also keep in mind that since each regional field expanded to six teams in 2004, we have had two number six seeds reach the national championship game.
Add up all these factors and it certainly appears as if we will have another very entertaining postseason. The next month is likely to have a few surprises as we narrow the field down to two teams to meet in Florence.
Thoughts from Last Week
-Congratulations are in order for everyone involved with the Lock Haven football program after the Bald Eagles ended their 52-game losing streak by beating Cheyney 15-7 last week. LHU still has a ways to go to reach respectability, but this is a step in the right direction for a program that has suffered through years of administrative neglect.
-Missouri Western picked up its biggest win in school history as the Griffons rallied from a 17-0 halftime deficit to knock off rival Northwest Missouri State 21-20 and win a first ever outright MIAA title. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, MWSU is talented enough to do well in the postseason but must guard against a letdown after their big win. As far as Northwest Missouri State goes, I still feel the Bearcats are on the short list of teams capable of winning the national championship this year and this loss could certainly serve as motivation. It will be very interesting if these two teams happen to meet again in the playoffs.
-It has taken Curt Cignetti just two seasons to return Indiana to dominance as the Crimson Hawks thrashed Shippensburg 41-10 last week to win the PSAC title. With Cignetti in charge I fully expect IUP to become the dominant program in both the PSAC and SR1 over the next few years.
-Augustana has fired football coach Mike Aldrich just two years after he led the Vikings to the best season in school history. One has to wonder if the loss to the University of Sioux Falls (the campuses are just a couple of blocks apart) and the fact the USF went 9-2 in its first NSIC season while Augie went 5-6 played a part in this.
-I feel that top to bottom the GLIAC is the best conference in D2 this year. But the league has just a single playoff participant out of 16 teams. Unbeaten Ashland was the only team in the entire league to finish with less than three losses.
-A team to watch in the SR2 playoffs is Lenoir-Rhyne. The Bears have won eight straight games, all in convincing fashion. They lead the nation in rushing with their flexbone option offense which is a system that can be difficult for unfamiliar opponents to prepare for. I would not be one bit surprised to see Lenoir-Rhyne win the region.
Super Region One
Shepherd (8-2) at Indiana (10-1)
Back in 1998, the Rams won at IUP 9-6 in the first round of the D2 playoffs. It was monumental win at the time as it was the first D2 playoff ever for a WVIAC team. Shepherd also beat IUP 34-27 five years ago in the opening round, so the Rams hold a 2-0 advantage against the Crimson Hawks in the playoffs.
Like that 1998 game, I expect this one to be defensive oriented. IUP leads the country in total defense and scoring defense, while Shepherd allows a measly 38 yards per game on the ground. While I think this game will be relatively low scoring, I think IUP has more talent overall and it will be difficult for the Rams to move the ball against a Crimson Hawk defense that is outstanding against both the run and pass.
Indiana 24 Shepherd 13
Bloomsburg (10-1) at Shippensburg (10-1)
These two teams met three weeks ago in a game that decided the PSAC East title. The Red Raiders jumped out to a big early lead but Bloomsburg rallied to tie the game late in the fourth quarter. Ship quarterback Zach Zulli then drove his team the length of the field to score the winning touchdown in the last few seconds of the game. The final score was 49-42 as obviously neither defense was able to slow down the opposing offense.
I do not see that changing much this week. Bloomsburg is going to run for a lot of yards and Zulli is going to throw the ball all over the field. It will be the team that can avoid turnovers and make a couple of key defensive stops that will come out on top.
Bloomsburg 41 Shippensburg 38
Super Region Two
Fort Valley State (8-3) at Lenoir-Rhyne (8-2)
There is not a team in this entire region playing better football than Lenoir-Rhyne right now. The Bears have won seven straight games-- all in convincing fashion-on their way to winning an outright SAC championship. LRC averages an astounding 384 yards per game on the ground and they will be facing a FVSU defense that does not do a good job of stopping the run. I really think LRC will have to make a lot of mistakes (like four or five turnovers) for FVSU to have a chance. Lenoir-Rhyne 45 Fort Valley State 21.
Miles (8-2) at West Alabama (8-3)
Win or lose on Saturday, the Miles football program has gone through a remarkable turnaround over the last few years under Reginald Ruffin: From 2004 through 2008, the Bears suffered through a 46-game losing streak. This is also a season of first for UWA as the Tigers are outright GSC champions for the first time in school history.
Miles is a well-coached team and I expect their defense to keep them in the game for at least a half. But UWA is fourth in the entire country in total defense and I think the Tigers advantage in talent and depth will eventually take over this game.
West Alabama 31 Miles 17.
Super Region Three
Minnesota-Duluth (10-1) at Missouri Western (10-1)
These two teams are very similar offensively. Both have outstanding offensive lines and have bludgeoned their opponents all season with their rushing attack. Chase Vogler for UMD and Travis Partridge for MWSU are also experienced and versatile quarterbacks that can run or pass with effectiveness.
The difference in the two teams is on the defensive side of the ball, where MWSU is much more formidable. The Griffons have a pair of outstanding defensive ends in Ben Pister and David Bass and are solid throughout. UMD has done a decent job against the run for the most part, but the Bulldogs have been torched by even average offenses in the passing game. The Bulldogs have won 11 playoff games over the past four seasons and I do not expect things to come easy for the Griffons, but I do think MWSU is the better team and will find a way.
Missouri Western 38 Minnesota-Duluth 28
Harding (9-1) at Northwest Missouri State (9-2)
There was some controversy that the Bisons were forced to travel for this game when many thought they would have the home field. But if there is a silver lining for Harding in having to travel nearly 500 miles north, it is that the weather is supposed to be in the mid-50s and dry, so there should not be much disruption in the Bisons flexbone option offense.
I do think NWMSU is a heavy favorite in this game. The Bearcats have the defensive speed to combat the option game and they have an offensive attack similar in talent level to the Henderson State offense that put 38 points on the board in dealing the Bisons their only loss a month ago. Harding will have to stay in the game early and not get behind as they are not built to play that type of game. Northwest Missouri State 42 Harding 20.
Super Region Four
West Texas A&M (9-2) at Chadron State (9-2)
Chadron State is not a team that is flashy or is great at any one facet of the game. The Eagles have just one loss against D2 competition (to CSU-Pueblo in overtime) and have found ways to win close games and gut out wins all season. I think WTAMU definitely has more talent, but we have seen CSC knock off more talented teams many times in the past in the postseason.
I think the big problem for CSC in this game is that the Eagles do not do a good job of getting after the quarterback. WTAMU quarterback Dustin Vaughan is not only a talented quarterback, but a good decision maker (just seven interceptions in 401 pass attempts). If the Eagles cannot generate pressure, I think Vaughan will have a big day and the underrated WTAMU defense (just 335 yards allowed per game) will do enough to get a win.
West Texas A&M 31 Chadron State 26
Midwestern State (9-1) at Indianapolis (9-2)
Both of these teams come in on a roll as both have won nine straight games after a rough start to the season. The difference, however, is that two of MSUs wins are over playoff teams compared to Indianapolis wins coming against a fairly weak GLVC schedule. Many people believe Indy will be exposed in the playoffs and the Greyhounds will have their opportunity to prove people wrong.
The one advantage Indy does have is that quarterback Chris Mills is an outstanding player and he should be capable of leading his offense to some points against the Mustang defense. But where MSU has a big advantage is in its running game, which averages 335 yards per game on the ground. In particular, Keidrick Jackson (1263 yards, 19 touchdowns) is a powerful runner and I just do not see that the Greyhounds will have the physicality on defense to hold up to the pounding for four quarters.
Midwestern State 35 Indianapolis 25
Harlon Hill Finalists
The twenty four initial candidates for the Harlon Hill Trophy were announced this week. You can see the entire list here.. Regional voting will end this week with two finalists from each region going on the national ballot. I will break down each of those candidates after the finalists are announced and give my thoughts as to who should win the award this season.
Mailbag
[Q] Do you think there is a chance that the national championship game would ever leave Florence?
Jason
[A] I think that as along as North Alabama stays in D2, the game is going to stay in Florence. You have to remember that along with having years of experience in hosting the game, Florence is also home to the Harlon Hill Trophy and the D2 Football Hall of Fame.
However, if UNA ever does move to D1 I feel that the game is likely to move to another location. UNA has made it known it wants to move to D1 and has attempted to get into the Ohio Valley Conference. I think it is only a matter of time before UNA leaves the division and in turn the championship game leaves Florence.
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