October 29th, 2013 12:00am
In all my years of covering D2 football, the one team that I have consistently had a hard time figuring out is Valdosta State. If you would have asked me last year at this time I would have given the 2012 Blazers about a two percent chance of winning the national title and yet they were the last team standing in Florence. There have been other years when VSU was on my short list to win it all and they did not even make the playoffs.
So as much as I am shocked by the 57-7 beating VSU suffered at the hands of North Alabama last Saturday, I am not shocked, if you know what I mean. The enigmatic Blazers not only suffered their worst loss in school history, but it was also the fifth time in the last nine years that VSU has lost by 18 points or more to UNA. Over that timeframe the Blazers have won three national championships while UNA has not even reached a title game. Go figure.
As ugly as last week-- and quite frankly, the last three weeks-- have been for Valdosta State, the 5-2 Blazers still are most likely in control of their own destiny as far as reaching the playoffs and getting a chance to defend their title. VSU is ranked eighth in the initial Super Region Two regional rankings but they have yet to play two teams-- UNC-Pembroke and Delta State-- that are ahead of them in the rankings.
I said earlier this season that the five new starters on the offensive line would determine Valdosta State's fate this fall. The thing is, the Blazers are averaging 5.7 yards per carry and have only given up six sacks all season, so the line is doing just fine. It is the known quantities-- in particular quarterback Cayden Cochran (117 quarterback rating, 10 interceptions) and a defense that returned several key players-- that have not been doing their part. Again, it is difficult to understand why this is all happening.
At this point, it would not surprise me if the Blazers finished the season 6-4. It also would not surprise me if they rebounded and not only made the playoffs. One thing is for sure: it will certainly be interesting to see how the rest of this season unfolds for Valdosta State.
Observations from Last Week
-Truman State is another team finding the going easier in the GLVC. The Bulldogs had not won more than six games in a season since 2001 while playing in the MIAA, but are tied for first in the GLVC with a 4-0 record after beating Missouri S&T 27-17 last week.
-Tusculum quarterback Bo Cordell became D2's all-time leading passer when he reached 15,049 yards in his team's 41-33 loss to Wingate. Unfortunately, all those passing yards have not translated into wins as the Pioneers have gone just 17-30 during Cordell's five years on campus (he was given a medical redshirt after playing in just three games during the 2011 season).
-Texas A&M-Kingsville (3-5) has lost five straight games for the first time since 1993 and is winless in the LSC. The Javelinas will be underdogs in their last three games as well. This program used to be among the best in D2 but has really fallen on hard times.
-North Alabama has outscored its opponents 71-0 in the third quarter of games this season, including 17-0 last week. Apparently the Lions turn it up a notch and defensive coordinator Chris Willis must be making all the right halftime adjustments.
-Colorado State-Pueblo set an RMAC record by winning its 28th consecutive league game with a 51-17 win over Black Hills State. As I have mentioned earlier this year, I am not sold on the Thunderwolves' defense being good enough to carry them very far in the playoffs, but the way have they have dominated their conference the last few years is impressive.
-Azusa Pacific ran just six plays and had 16 yards of offense and no first downs in the first half last week against Central Washington and incredibly, held a 14-10 lead. APU's two scores were on an interception return and a kickoff return and CWU also recovered an onside kick. APU went on to win the game 24-17 which gave the Cougars sole possession of first place in the GNAC.
-Henderson State beat Harding 45-30 to remain unbeaten on the season. But the Reddies did suffer a major loss when standout wide receiver Robert Jordan-- a D2Football.com preseason All-American-- was lost for the season with a leg injury. Jordan had 47 catches for 724 yards and nine touchdowns this season and his absence may make it easier for defenses to key HSU's other standout receiver, Darius Davis.
-West Texas A&M beat McMurry by the incredible score of 90-57 last Saturday. We all knew the Buffalos could score points but I have some major concerns about the WTAMU defense as McMurry racked up 708 yards of offense.
Top Games this Week
Shippensburg (5-3) at Bloomsburg (8-0)
National TV: CBS College Sports Network Thursday 8 PM Eastern
Shippensburg's last second loss to West Chester takes the Red Raiders out of playoff contention but this is still a very interesting game to follow because of the talent that will be on the field. Shippensburg quarterback Zach Zulli won the Harlon Hill last year while Bloomsburg running back Franklyn Quiteh was a finalist for the award.
Bloomsburg 38 Shippensburg 28
American International (6-2) at New Haven (6-2)
These are two of the three teams (Stonehill being the other) that are tied atop the conference standings. While I do not think either team has a great shot at making the playoffs, the Northeast 10 title will be on the line. The two teams are pretty evenly matched, but I will give a slight advantage to UNH playing at home.
New Haven 24 American International 21
California (6-2) at Slippery Rock (7-1)
The winner of this game will take sole possession of first place in the PSAC West so this is a huge game. Both teams are very solid defensively, but I just do not see a way that the Vulcan offense can put up enough points to keep up with an SRU offense that averages 580 yards per game.
Slippery Rock 33 California 21
Carson-Newman (7-1) at Lenoir-Rhyne (7-1)
Unlike many college games these days that drag on for over three hours, expect these two option-based offenses to keep the clock moving. I will be surprised if there are more than 30 pass attempts combined between the two teams. The Bears are better defensively, and I think that gives them a slight edge.
Lenoir-Rhyne 27 Carson-Newman 21
Emporia State (7-0) at Missouri Western (7-1)
Last year these two teams met on national TV and the Griffons basically ran over and embarrassed ESU. I think this season it is going to be different. Hornet quarterback Brent Wilson (27 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 193.5 pass efficiency rating, 418 rush yards) is playing as well as any signal caller in the country and MWSU has been exposed defensively these last two weeks.
Emporia State 37 Missouri Western 30
Washburn (8-0) at Northwest Missouri (8-0)
These two teams have the same records but there is no question that Northwest has faced stronger competition and has been more dominant. That said; Washburn is a team that historically given the Bearcats problems so I expect this to be a decent game.
Northwest Missouri 38 Washburn 24
West Alabama (6-2) at North Alabama (5-2)
Just how good is North Alabama? I think that is the question most folks are the country are asking after they hammered Valdosta State last week. This game against rival UWA will help to answer that question. UWA is a little more explosive offensively, but UNA's terrific red zone defense and ability to force turnovers is an equalizer.
North Alabama 28 West Alabama 27
Valdosta State (5-2) at Delta State (5-2)
With both teams having two D2 losses, this is probably a playoff elimination game. I am not all that confident in either team right now, but I think the Blazers will pull it together and find a way to win.
Valdosta State 31 Delta State 24
Mailbag
[Q] What is your reaction to the first set of regional rankings?
Alex
[A] I did not see anything that really surprised me, but as I have said many times in the past, I do not put a lot of stock into the rankings until the last week of the regular season because of the fluidity involved with computing strength of schedule for the teams.
The one region to take note of is Super Region Three. Right now there are five MIAA teams in the rankings with zero or one loss. But those teams all play each other over the last three weeks so the losses will obviously start to pile up for some of them. In the end I think at the most the MIAA will get three teams in the playoffs with a possibility of just two.
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