November 12th, 2013 12:00am
What a week this is going to be! In addition to four formal conference championship games being played this coming Saturday, there are several other huge games being played around the country. In fact, I cannot think of another year with this many great games in the final week of the regular season.
All of this means that Selection Sunday is going to be very interesting and very difficult to predict. Please refer to the regional rankings tab on the front page of our website as I will attempt to break down the playoff possibilities in each region:
Super Region One
With eight of the ten teams in this regional ranking playing each other, there is so much up in the air. Shepherd is a lock. So are the winners of the three conference championship games going on in the region: Winston-Salem State versus Virginia State in the CIAA, Bloomsburg versus Slippery Rock in the PSAC and Stonehill versus American International in the Northeast-10.
So by my math that leaves basically two spots up for debate. The most likely team to grab one is West Chester as the Rams should handle Clarion and finish 10-1. I think the only way the Rams might be on shaky ground is if Winston-Salem State and Bloomsburg both lose their respective conference title games.
So the final spot is likely to come down to the losers of the CIAA and PSAC title games. I look at it like this: if Virginia State loses the CIAA title game, then most likely the loser of the PSAC title game will make it. If VSU wins the CIAA title game, then it appears to me that Winston-Salem State would most likely claim the spot over the loser of the PSAC game.
The only other team that could come into play is Concord. The Mountain Lions will get a shot at knocking off Shepherd and if they do I think there is at least a chance they could jump into the top six if everything broke their way.
Final SR1 Ranking Prediction:
1. Shepherd
2. Winston-Salem State
3. Slippery Rock
4. Bloomsburg
5. West Chester
6. American International
Super Region Two
UNC-Pembroke (regular season complete) and Lenoir-Rhyne (should still be in even with a loss to Catawba) are locks to make the playoffs in this region. I also feel that North Alabama is very likely to make it, even with a loss at Tarleton State from SR4 this week.
Either Tuskegee or Miles from the SIAC is going to make the field, via earned access if necessary. Tuskegee is done with its regular season while Miles plays in the SIAC championship game against Albany State. If Miles could win that game there is at least a chance that they could move up to the eight spot and be right behind Tuskegee. This would necessitate a "flip" of the two teams based on Miles* head to head win last week.
So really I think the final two spots are between Carson-Newman, Newberry and West Alabama. UWA is easily going to win its game with 2-8 Central State but will not be gaining any in strength of schedule in the process. C-N and Newberry will both be favored against Wingate and North Greenville respectively, but there is a potential for upset in both. If C-N and Newberry both win they should make they playoffs, likely leaving a talented UWA team kicking themselves over blowing a big lead at North Alabama a couple of weeks ago.
Final SR2 Ranking Prediction:
1. Lenoir-Rhyne
2. UNC-Pembroke
3. North Alabama
4. Carson-Newman
5. Newberry
6. Tuskegee
Super Region Three
Northwest Missouri, Minnesota State, Henderson State and Minnesota-Duluth are all going to be in the playoffs.
So the last two spots will likely come down the teams seeded 5-7 in the rankings. It appears that if Pittsburg State, Emporia State and St. Cloud State all win that SCSU will be the odd team out. In that scenario I also think there is a chance that ESU could jump PSU into the five spot in the rankings.
Also, one other team to keep in mind is Missouri Western. If the Griffons can upset Northwest Missouri (unlikely, in my opinion) they might get a big enough strength of schedule boost to jump up into the top six, especially if ESU loses. Just something to keep in mind.
Final SR3 Ranking Prediction:
1. Northwest Missouri
2. Minnesota State
3. Henderson State
4. Minnesota-Duluth
5. Emporia State
6. Pittsburg State
Super Region Four
CSU-Pueblo and Ohio Dominican are going to be in the playoffs. So is Indianapolis as even with a loss they only need to stay in the top eight in the region to qualify for earned access as the only GLVC team. Saginaw Valley and Grand Valley play each other. The winner of that game will almost certainly make the field. If GVSU loses, they are out. Also, I think if SVSU wins, they have at least a shot of moving into the top two in the region and getting a first round bye because of strength of schedule.
So there are really only two spots remaining and this is where it gets kind of confusing. At least one spot will be taken by an LSC team. If Tarleton State beats North Alabama, they will claim that spot especially since they have the head to head advantage over Midwestern State and West Texas A&M. MSU and WTAMU play each other and the winner will get in (by earned access if necessary) if Tarleton State falters.
As far as the last spot, it would most likely come down to SVSU (if they lose to GVSU), the MSU/WTAMU winner (if Tarleton State wins as well) and Chadron State. Maybe the easiest way to break it down would be like this:
If you are a MSU or WTAMU fan you would like to see GVSU, Tarleton State and Chadron State (who plays 7-3 Colorado Mines) all lose.
If you are a Chadron State fan you would want GVSU, Tarleton State and West Texas A&M (because you lost to them head to head) to all lose.
If you are a SVSU fan and your team loses to GVSU, you want Tarleton State-- and probably Chadron State, just to be sure-- to lose.
It is even conceivable that 10th ranked Ferris State could make it, but only if Grand Valley, Tarleton State and Chadron State all lose. Got all of that?
Final SR4 Ranking Prediction
1. Colorado Mines
2. Ohio Dominican
3. Saginaw Valley
4. Indianapolis
5. West Texas A&M
6. Chadron State
Observations from Last Week
-One team that has been a huge surprise this season is Eastern New Mexico. After starting just 1-3, the Greyhounds have won five straight, including wins over ranked teams each of the last two weeks. ENMU can win a share of the LSC title with a win over Texas A&M-Commerce this weekend.
-Ferris State head coach Tony Annese was suspended by the school for last week*s contest-a 42-10 win at Northwood-- over an incident that occurred at halftime of FSU*s game against Michigan Tech on October 26th. Annese will be back on the sidelines this week as his team will try to keep its playoff hopes alive against Northern Michigan.
-The NCAA ruled last week that Chadron State must forfeit all of its wins from the 2011 and 2012 seasons due to the use of an ineligible player. This was all discovered in the investigation that led to the firing of head coach Bill O*Boyle two years ago. The good news for CSC: they will not face any loss of scholarship equivalencies and they remain playoff eligible.
-Chowan wide receiver Robert Holland had 13 receptions for 278 yards and four touchdowns in his team*s 77-14 win over Lincoln (PA). Holland finished his brilliant career with 325 receptions, breaking the D2 record of 323 set by Ferris State*s Clarence Coleman from 1998-2001.
-Northwest Missouri dismantled another ranked team in Emporia State while Minnesota State blew out Sioux Falls 52-17. These results further solidify my thought that MSU and NWMSU are the best two teams in the country, and it appears to be by a fairly wide margin.
-St. Anselm beat Pace 63-33 in a battle between two winless NE-10 teams last week. For the season Pace has given up 45 touchdown passes while recording just one interception. I find that to be incredible. A pair of winless PSAC teams-- Seton Hill and Cheyney-- will do battle this week.
Top Games this Week
CIAA Championship Game
Winston-Salem State (9-1) vs Virginia State (9-1)
WSSU is back in familiar territory in the CIAA title game but VSU has come out of nowhere to have a great season after going just 4-6 a year ago. Both of these teams are good defensively but the Rams are more balanced and explosive on offense.
Winston-Salem State 30 Virginia State 21
SIAC Championship Game
Miles (6-3) vs Albany State (5-4)
These two teams also met in late September, with Miles winning 22-14. Both teams come into this game on four game winning streaks so both should be confident.
Albany State 17 Miles 14
NE-10 Championship Game
American International (8-2) vs Stonehill (8-2)
This is the inaugural NE-10 title game that matches up the top two teams in the conference standings. When these teams met in early October AIC won easily, 31-10. Stonehill is a very gritty team that plays well together but the Yellow Jackets simply have more talent.
American International 28 Stonehill 17
PSAC Championship Game
Slippery Rock (9-1) at Bloomsburg (9-1)
This is a very intriguing game. The only thing that has stopped the SRU offense this season is themselves: The Rock averages 583 yards per game but has committed 31 turnovers. The first quarter of this game will be key. If BU can get its running game going and establish an early lead, they could control this game. But if SRU gets ahead, The Rock just might run away with it, similar to what Shippensburg did to the Huskies two weeks ago.
Slippery Rock 34 Bloomsburg 27
Shepherd (9-0) at Concord (8-2)
This game will decide the MEC championship. The Rams can claim the outright title by winning this game while a Mountain Lion win would mean a shared title. Both defenses are outstanding but Shepherd is more balanced offensively and does a much better job of taking care of the football.
Shepherd 24 Concord 13
Saginaw Valley State (9-1) at Grand Valley State (8-2)
These two old rivals will go at it with the playoffs on the line once again. A Jon Jennings to Jeff Janis touchdown pass knocked the Lakers out of the playoffs last season so expect GVSU to have revenge on their minds. Expect some points to be scored as well, as neither team is that great defensively.
Saginaw Valley 38 Grand Valley 35
West Texas A&M (8-2) at Midwestern State (7-2)
Two weeks ago both of these teams were looking good as far as reaching the playoffs and now only the winner of this game has a shot. I think WTAMU has a little more talent but can they stop the MSU running game? This will be a very interesting game to watch.
West Texas A&M 41 Midwestern State 40
Truman State (7-3) at Indianapolis (9-1)
Indianapolis has been playing without star quarterback Chris Mills since mid-October. But the Greyhounds have been able to rely on a stingy defense that allows just 266 yards per game to remain unbeaten in the GLVC. With just one conference loss, TSU can claim a share of the league title with a win.
Indianapolis 23 Truman State 14
Henderson State (9-0) at Ouachita Baptist (7-2)
I have never been to The Battle of the Ravine, but this is one of those D2 rivalry games that I (and really any D2 fan) needs to see in person at some point. The two schools are literally across the street from each other which makes for a very unique game day experience. The Reddies have won three straight in this series, including 42-7 last year. Look for quarterback Kevin Rodgers and HSU to make it four in a row as they are just so explosive offensively.
Henderson State 45 Ouachita Baptist 28
Northwest Missouri (10-0) at Missouri Western (8-2)
There is no love lost between these two rivals as there is just a 45 minute drive between the two campuses. MWSU came from behind last year to win 21-20 on the Bearcats* home field-- a win that secured the outright MIAA title for the Griffons. Although the league title is not on the line this year, I expect to see a very motivated NWMSU team as they can secures a number one seed in the region and exact some revenge in the process.
Northwest Missouri State 38 Missouri Western 20
North Alabama (7-2) at Tarleton State (7-2)
A very interesting inter-regional match up between two teams that are trying to reach the playoffs in their respective regions. UNA has a defense that travels well and I expect the Lions to win this game. North Alabama 31 Tarleton State 24
Mailbag
[Q] I was wondering what your thoughts were on earned access? I like the idea that all conferences are featured but on the other hand I believe that the best teams should play no matter what.
Steven
[A] Well first I think I need to address the reason why earned access exists in the first place: D2 (as an entire division) has a rule that no automatic conference bids can be granted in a sport when less than 2/3 of all schools in the division play said sport. Football falls into that category.
Not having automatic access of course made some conferences unhappy and as a result of that unhappiness the possibility of division-wide scholarship reductions or even a split championship existed. Coming up with the concept of earned access was done to make it easier (and even likely) that every conference would get a team into the playoffs. Earned access was basically a compromise to keep everyone happy.
So, while I understand the reasoning behind earned access, I do not agree with its use. I do believe that every conference should be represented in the playoffs, but in my opinion it would be so much easier and "cleaner" to simply change the D2 rule to allow football to grant automatic bids.
Contact Me
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