November 25th, 2014 12:00am
To say that last Saturday was entertaining would be an understatement. It was a roller-coaster of an afternoon as four teams rallied from double digit deficits to post wins in the first round of the postseason.
Angelo State found themselves down 21-0 in the second quarter at Michigan Tech. The Rams were 1500 miles from home playing a physical team in weather 35 degrees colder than they were used to. But somehow ASU battled back and with a little help from the football Gods (MTU missed a chip shot field goal in the final seconds) the Rams were able to head back to Texas with a 42-41 victory.
A great deal of credit has to go to Will Wagner and his coaching staff for keeping the team together and pulling this game out. For those of you that don't know, Wagner is a former protégé of legendary Northwest Missouri State coach Mel Tjeerdsma. That was a very "Tjeerdsma-like" playoff win.
The Harding offense and defense completely mesmerized Pittsburg State for the first quarter and a half but the Gorillas also rebounded from a 21-0 deficit to defeat the Bisons 59-42. Also credit Tim Beck and the Pittsburg State staff for adjusting to what Harding was doing and then putting the throttle down on offense once they got it going.
But the most impressive comeback is what happened in Duluth, MN where Minnesota-Duluth rallied from a 15 point fourth quarter deficit to shock defending national champion Northwest Missouri State 25-21. To put this in context, Northwest had a 21-6 lead and the ball inside the Bulldog 5-yard line late in the 3rd quarter with a chance to put the game away. But UMD found the will to stop the Bearcats on downs, which flipped the momentum in the game. The fourth quarter was all UMD, with quarterback Drew Bauer scoring the winning touchdown with just 26 seconds left.
As I have said many times this year, Northwest Missouri State had the best defense in the country and I'm utterly shocked that UMD was able to come back and win the game, especially when they are a run-first team going directly into the teeth of that defense. The Bulldogs have now beaten the Bearcats three times in the playoffs over the last seven seasons. UMD is one of those hard-nosed blue collar teams that just shows up each week and does its thing without a lot of fanfare. Obviously that approach works.
Playoffs Round Two
Super Region One
West Chester (11-1) at Concord (11-0)
The Rams won the region and reached the semifinals last year, and they played like a playoff-seasoned team in their blowout win over Slippery Rock last week. WCU senior quarterback Sean McCartney (42 touchdown passes this year) is playing at a very high level and it will take a great effort by the Concord defense to contain him.
I do think Concord has what it takes to stay in this game. The Mountain Lions are explosive offensively behind the passing of quarterback Brian Novack and the running of Calvinaugh Jones. They also have an outstanding return game which helps to set up short fields for their offense. I am going to give a slight edge to WCU based on their playoff experience, but I expect this to be a very entertaining game. West Chester 35 Concord 31
Virginia State (10-2) at Bloomsburg (10-1)
To me, the major factor coming into this game is the health of BU running back Eddie Mateo. Mateo (1042 rushing yards, 23 touchdowns) was not able to play much in the PSAC championship game loss to Slippery Rock. All indications are that we will be good to go against VSU. That is good news for the BU offense as they will want to grind it out on the ground as much as possible against a VSU defense that is opportunistic and likes to force turnovers. Last week the VSU defense gave up some yards, but was able to force critical turnovers, including an interception that was returned for a score.
The Bloomsburg defense is also adept at forcing turnovers (39 forced already this year) so the Trojans will have to do a great job of taking care of the football to stay in it. I really think the Huskies will have a huge day on the ground and win this game rather easily. Bloomsburg 38 Virginia State 19
Super Region Two
Valdosta State (9-2) at Lenoir-Rhyne (11-0)
What a matchup between two teams with a great deal of playoff experience. VSU won the national title two years ago while LRU reached the championship game last season. LRU, of course, runs its flexbone option offense which can be very difficult for a team that hasn't seen it before. Case in point: Pittsburg State had a difficult time stopping Harding last week, and Harding runs a very similar scheme to LRU.
So while I do expect the Bears to move the ball and score points, they must also deal with a VSU offense that is really starting to come into its own. In fact, the Blazers won a national championship two years ago behind excellent offensive line play and this VSU team is getting that same kind of feel as they rushed for nearly 400 yards behind their four seniors up front last week. This should be a great game that I honestly feel should go down to the wire. Valdosta State 34 Lenoir-Rhyne 31
West Georgia (10-2) at Delta State (9-1)
UWG handed DSU its only loss of the season last month, 24-16. In that game the Wolves completely shut down the DSU rushing attack, forcing 74 pass attempts by Tyler Sullivan and nabbing four turnovers. All three UWG touchdowns in that game were set up by DSU miscues and the Wolves ran the ball well enough to win the field position battle as the Statesmen were forced to start six drives from inside their own 20.
The Statesmen have since learned from that game. In their subsequent wins against North Alabama and West Alabama, DSU stayed patient with its running game and allowed its defense to take control. If the Statesmen do that once again this week, I like them to avenge their loss as I feel they have a talent advantage overall. If they completely abandon the running game and ask Sullivan to win it with his arm again then they are in trouble. Delta State 28 West Georgia 20
Super Region Three
Minnesota-Duluth (12-0) at Ouachita Baptist (10-0)
I think many people might assume that because UMD beat Northwest Missouri State last week that the Bulldogs will just show up and take care of business against OBU. I want to caution against this kind of thinking. OBU is led by Auburn transfer Kiehl Frazier at quarterback and he will be unlike any player the Bulldogs have seen this season. Frazier is probably more comfortable running than throwing, but he has big play ability and a knack for making the right plays at the right times.
Of course UMD has a similar player in Drew Bauer and the Bulldogs have one other area where I think they have an advantage: the offensive line. The Bulldogs are long and lean up front (four of the five starters are at least 6'5") and this will be a difficult adjustment for the Tiger defense to play against as they just don't see that type of line talent in the GAC. The ability to use their length and get leverage on defenders is a staple of the UMD running game and one of the main reasons they have been so good over the years. Frazier is a special player and I think he will help keep it close in the end, but it's hard to overlook the advantage the Bulldogs have in the trenches. Minnesota-Duluth 38 Ouachita Baptist 28
Pittsburg State (11-1) at Minnesota State (11-0)
So many questions coming into this game: How will the smallish but extremely quick Pitt State defense hold up against what I believe is D2's best offensive line? Can the MSU secondary contain PSU's duo of 1,000 yard receivers- Marquise Cushion and Gavin Lutman? Can the Gorillas slow down the pass rush of MSU standout defensive end Josh Gordon?
To me, this game has all the makings of a heavyweight fight, with each team trading some blows. At the end of the day I have to give a slight nod to MSU because of the talent they possess up front on both sides of the ball. But PSU quarterback Anthony Abenoja has been hot throwing the football the past couple of weeks and if he gets any assistance at all from the running game, the Gorillas are perfectly capable of winning this game. Minnesota State 30 Pittsburg State 27
Super Region Four
Ohio Dominican (10-1) at Ferris State (11-0)
FSU traveled to ODU back in mid-October and completely dominated the game, winning 34-19. But two things have changed since then. One, ODU standout running back Brandon Schoen is back in the lineup as he missed the FSU game with an injury. And secondly, the once strong FSU defense has completely fallen apart over the last three weeks.
I'm thinking maybe a loss of focus after the Bulldogs got through the "meat" of their schedule is what caused the defensive issues? And an extra week of rest and the pressure of being in a must win situation against a quality opponent will cause the Bulldogs to regain their mojo? I don't know if the answer to those two questions is yes, but FSU still has a great quarterback in Jason Vander Laan to lead them if this turns into a shootout. If FSU truly is a national championship caliber team they will turn it back up a notch and win this game. If not, the Panthers are more than capable of pulling the upset. Ferris State 34 Ohio Dominican 30
Angelo State (9-2) at Colorado State-Pueblo (10-1)
The ASU offense showed its talent and explosiveness against a disciplined and tough Michigan Tech defense last week. The Rams will be facing a very similar opponent in the Thunderwolves, as CSU-Pueblo relies heavily on its defense and rushing attack to win games.
While I think this will be a good game, I just really like what the Rams have going right now. ASU quarterback Kyle Washington (over 900 rushing yards, 3000 passing yards and 41 total touchdowns) is proving to be among the best in D2 and this is a team that has consistently shown an ability to win close games. The Thunderwolves will really need to have their running game going to try to keep Washington and the ASU offense on the sidelines as much as possible. Angelo State 31 Colorado State-Pueblo 28
[Q] After looking at the bracket, it is apparent to me that best two small private institutions in the nation got the worst draws (Lenoir-Rhyne and Ouachita Baptist). They each have two perennial, large market power houses, feeding into them. Do you believe the selection committee favors these large public institutions in the bracket because the NCAA will benefit from a larger market playing late in the playoffs or is this my own LR bias? In our region, for example, I believe it is clear Delta State has the easier path to the regional finals. In Ouachita Baptist's bracket, they receive the defending national champions and an undefeated team. Could this be a reason a private institution has never won the national title?
Nathanael
[A] Honestly, what you're saying doesn't make sense. If there is such a bias toward the large perennial power houses, then why would the NCAA schedule two first round match ups between four of the most successful schools- Minnesota-Duluth versus Northwest Missouri State and Valdosta State versus North Alabama- in the history of the entire division? Wouldn't they want these teams advancing as deep in the playoffs as possible? And the two private schools you mentioned both were given number one seeds in their respective regions. I see what you are saying about the match up this week, but if OBU were the second seed in SR3 they would be playing Pittsburg State this week instead of Minnesota-Duluth. That's not an advantage.
The main reason no private school has won a national championship is that the public schools generally have an advantage when it comes stretching scholarship dollars within D2's partial scholarship model.
Example: a private school and a public school in the same conference both offer a player a 50% scholarship equivalency. The cost of attending the public schools is $10,000 while it costs $25,000 to attend the private school. Bottom line, it's going to cost the student-athlete $7500.00 more per year out of pocket to go the private school. In D2 there aren't many private schools that are considered elite academically so that draw in most cases isn't there. So to compete for the player the private school might have to offer a 75% equivalency as an enticement to land the player. That in turn leaves less money for other players, which in turn hurts overall team depth etc. etc.
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