October 13th, 2015 12:00am
Last week was officially the midpoint of the regular season and we already start the down slide towards the playoffs this week. When I look at the six teams I picked in the preseason column as my main national championship contenders only Ohio Dominican has completely fallen by the wayside. The Panthers (4-2) have had some injuries and just plain haven't played very well. I don't think this will be a national championship or even a playoff season for ODU. Here's a look at the other five teams and where I feel they stand at midseason:
Minnesota State (6-0)
The Mavericks have been the number one ranked team in our poll all season long, and after rallying from 17 down to beat Minnesota-Duluth in the season open, MSU has looked the part of a championship team generally speaking. The Mav defense has been among the best in D2, allowing just 225 yards per game with preseason All-Americans Tyler Henderson (41 tackles, 2 INTs) and Josh Gordon (9.5 sacks) living up to their billing. MSU appears to have adequately replaced several starters on the offensive line and running back Connor Thomas (619 rushing yards, seven touchdowns) is having a nice senior season.
The one potential flaw with this team and one I could see derailing them down the road is that the passing game has had some problems. Despite having veterans Ricky Lloyd and Nick Pieruccini at quarterback, MSU has thrown more interceptions (10) than touchdown passes (nine). They showed signs of improvement in this area last week in a win over Augustana and Ty Dennis is starting to develop into a big play receiver. I think the odds are that this team continues to get better throwing the football. There is just too much experience and talent available not to. If that happens, MSU definitely has a shot at making it back to Kansas City.
West Georgia (6-0)
After coming out of nowhere in Will Hall's first season as head coach to reach the national semifinals, the Wolves have not disappointed in year two of the Hall regime. They lead the GSC in scoring offense (45 ppg) and defense (15 ppg) and they look like a team on a mission to atone for last year's disappointment. Senior quarterback Dallas Dickey has increased his pass efficiency rating by over 30 points this season and he has plenty of help on offense as it seems a different player is carrying the team each week.
Defensively, Hall brought in several transfers to help plug some holes due to graduation and it appears to have worked as UWG is allowing only 211 yards per game and just 64 yards per game on the ground. The Wolves could very well be the most athletic defense in all of D2.
The one caveat on West Georgia: they have yet to play Delta State and North Alabama. They get both of them over the next two weeks. Two weeks from now we should have a feel for just how good this team is. At this point, UWG is definitely in the national championship conversation.
Ferris State (5-0)
As expected the 3rd-ranked Bulldogs have rolled through the first half of the regular season. What makes this team go, of course, is senior quarterback Jason Vander Laan. The 2014 Harlon Hill winner is just 72 yards away from becoming the NCAA's all-time leading rusher for a quarterback. He is also an adept passer and he is surrounded by explosive players at running back and receiver. The Bulldogs lead the country in total offense at 564 yards per game and while some defense may find a way to slow them down a bit, they are going to score points against anyone.
The question with FSU has always been the defense. Last season the Bulldogs fell apart defensively in the second half of the season which led to a first round playoff loss. This year FSU is allowing just 287 yards per game, but they did have some problems against Findlay a couple of weeks ago. The Bulldogs seem susceptible at times against the great passing teams and this could be a problem in the postseason. Still, I feel this team has a great shot of winning the region and getting to Kansas City this year.
Sioux Falls (6-0)
As long as junior quarterback Luke Papilion stays healthy, the Cougars have a shot against anyone. Papilion has passed for 1609 yards and 18 touchdowns so far this season, but what really makes him deadly to opposing defenses is his running ability. He is a threat to take off and run at any time. He is the team's leading rusher with 441 yards at an eye popping 9.4 yards per carry. He has a deep group of receivers to throw to and some competent backs making the Cougars very explosive offensively.
Defensively the question about the Cougars coming into the season was their ability to stand up to physical teams. They have passed the test so far. They did allow 224 rushing yards in the win over Minnesota-Duluth, but those yards came on 56 carries so they did a decent job. Minnesota State will also be a major test later in the year. USF has had some injuries on the defensive side of the ball, so we will see how the depth holds up as the season goes along. The only real weakness I can see in this team is the kicking and punting games.
Even though this program has never been in the D2 playoffs, do not discount the ability of USF to go far in the playoffs this season. This is a program with a proud tradition (four NAIA national championships) and they are not shy about stating that their goal in D2 is to win national titles as well.
North Alabama (4-1)
The Lions traveled all the way across the country and suffered a 24-22 upset loss to Western Oregon last week. UNA turned the ball over five times in that game, including an interception in the final minute when they were already in field goal range. This feels a bit like a fluke loss to me between the turnovers and travel, but UNA has not been strong from a turnover standpoint all year: they now sit at minus eight in turnover differential for the season. It's tough to win big games that way.
To cut to the chase, I feel UNA is still a playoff team this year, but not a strong contender to win the national championship. The Lions have moved the ball effectively in most games (500 yards per game) but the aforementioned turnovers have been a problem. UNA's defense is decent, but has not played to the level of the other top teams in the country.
News and Notes from around the Country
-Clarion (6-0) continues to be the only unbeaten team in the PSAC after knocking off Edinboro last week. The turnaround has been remarkable considering that the Eagles were just 2-9 last year and have had just one winning season in their previous 12. The arm of Connor Simmons is what makes this team go; he leads the country with a pass efficiency rating of about 190.
-I'm still not sure that a very young Northwest Missouri State team is a national championship contender, but the Bearcats are off to a 6-0 start and have been outstanding defensively. We will find out a lot about more about this team soon as they face four straight tough conference opponents- with the first three all on the road.
-The Virginia Union (5-1) defense is allowing just 144 yards per game this season. VUU leads in the nation in total defense, rush defense, pass efficiency defense and third down defense. It will be interesting to see if this defense can carry the Panthers to a CIAA title and a playoff berth.
-Over the last four weeks, East Stroudsburg quarterback Matt Soltes has thrown an incredible 26 touchdown passes, including 16 of them in the last two weeks alone. Amazingly, his team is just 3-3 on the season.
-Apparently Ferris State's close call with Findlay served as a wakeup call as the Bulldogs scored the first 35 points of the game in blasting Tiffin 56-21. FSU out-gained the Dragons 644 to 226 and held Tiffin quarterback Antonio Pipkin to -27 rushing yards.
-Has any NCAA team ever had a better brother rushing duo than Cameron and Bernard McDondle from Colorado-State Pueblo? The pair has combined for 1627 yards and 18 touchdowns already this year. Cameron has about two thirds of those yards but both backs are averaging 7.7 yards per carry. And now that freshman A.J. Thompson has emerged as a solid player at quarterback, the Thunderwolves are back on track.
Top Games this Week
Ohio Dominican (4-2) at Ferris State (6-0)
After reaching the national quarterfinals last year, this was supposed to be a big year for ODU football. But the Panthers have had some injuries and just haven't played very well this season, particularly on defense. FSU will want revenge for last year's playoff loss to ODU, so I expect the Bulldogs to come into this game with a chip on their shoulder. Ferris State 41 Ohio Dominican 21
Fort Lewis (4-2) at Colorado Mines (6-0)
One week after getting run over by the McDondle brothers from CSU_Pueblo, the Skyhawks will have to shift gears and deal with a Mines offense that loves to throw the football. Justin Dvorak has 24 touchdown passes against just three interceptions and I think FLC will have a tough time slowing him down. Colorado Mines 37 Fort Lewis 21
Wingate (5-1) at Lenoir-Rhyne (4-1)
Up until last week's loss to Tusculum, the Wingate defense had been outstanding this year. The problem for the Bulldogs is that they can't score points and that will be a problem in going against a LRU team that has score 41 or more points four times already this season. Lenoir-Rhyne 34 Wingate 17
Emporia State (6-0) at Fort Hays State (4-2)
Coming off an emotional win over Pittsburg State, this game has all the makings of a letdown for the Hornets. I am going to go with the upset and pick FHSU in this one. I think the Tigers can control the clock enough with their ground game to limit Brent Wilson and the ESU offense. Fort Hays State 28 Emporia State 24
Northwest Missouri (6-0) at Pittsburg State (4-2)
This is normally the game of the year in the MIAA, but it doesn't quite have the same vibe to it this season as neither team seems quite as dominant as they have been. I think the Gorillas can win if they play the perfect game, but he NWMSU defense has been lights out this season and I think the Bearcat offense will find a way to score some points. Northwest Missouri State 30 Pittsburg State 20
California (4-2) at IUP (4-1)
This is one of the better rivalries in the PSAC and both teams desperately need to win to stay in contention for the PSAC title game. To me this game comes down to the fact that IUP can really run the football (318 yards per game on the ground) while Cal is just so-so defensively. I think the Crimson Hawks win this one. IUP 27 California 19
West Georgia (6-0) at Delta State (5-1)
As I said earlier, this is really where the rubber starts to meet the road for UWG. The Wolves have not faced a great passing team yet this season and Tyler Sullivan (1512 passing yards, 12 touchdowns) and the DSU offense are certainly capable of throwing the football. However, the Statesmen have been porous at times defensively this season (381 yards allowed per game) and I think they will struggle to contain a pretty dynamic UWG offense. West Georgia 38 Delta State 27
Arkansas Tech (5-1) at East Central (4-2)
ATU has not played as well on the road as they have at home this year and ECU is a dangerous team at times offensively. However, I think the Wonderboys' running game will do enough damage to pull out a win. Arkansas Tech 27 East Central 24
Michigan Tech (5-0) at Grand Valley (5-1)
After the big loss to Ferris State a few weeks ago, GVSU has quietly gone about its business, winning its last three games by a combined total of 95 points. The Lakers have been forcing turnovers (a GLIAC leading 19 on the season) and have become more consistent offensively. MTU is stingy on defense, allowing just 291 yards per game, but I don't think the Huskies can score enough to win this one. Grand Valley 27 Michigan Tech 20
Sioux Falls (6-0) at Southwest Minnesota (5-1)
USF is used to success but this is uncharted territory for the Mustangs, who are off to their best start in 24 years. They have done it with a balanced and efficient offense that has converted 55% of the time on third down this season. I expect SMSU to have some success against a beat up Cougar defense, but at the end of the day USF just has too much explosiveness offensively. Sioux Falls 45 Southwest Minnesota State 28
Humboldt State (5-0) at Midwestern State (6-0)
We usually don't see non-conference games this interesting in October. MSU has a solid defense, and the key to this game will be the Mustangs' ability (or inability) to slow down HSU sophomore running back Ja'Quan Gardner, who gashed opposing defenses for 1050 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in just five games. I like the Lumberjacks to win this one. Humboldt State 24 Midwestern State 21
Mailbag
[Q] There is a split in the program at Carson-Newman apparently both on and off the field. Some claim the players don't have faith in or connect to the coaches and the staff is to blame for the "lack of excitement". These folks also seem to think it's time for Coach Ken Sparks to go, because apparently the program's going down. Others think he's earned the right to stay as long as he wants. What are your thoughts and do you think this has more to do with the loss the L-R and bandwagon fans than anything?
[A] If this is true, I find it appalling. Coach Sparks has won 329 career games and C-N is 4-2 this season and 30-11 over the last three plus seasons. The Eagles have won a playoff game as recently as two years ago. I really don't think the C-N program is in a freefall. Plus, the SAC is the most balanced conference in D2 in the sense that Brevard is the only team to fail to make the playoffs in the last decade. It's not as easy to go 10-1 every year in this league as it was 15 or 20 years ago.
Coach Sparks has given virtually his entire professional career to Carson-Newman and continues to successfully lead the program while battling cancer. I think the man deserves the benefit of the doubt.
Contact
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