November 24th, 2015 12:00am
What a first weekend of playoff football. There were big comebacks, fantastic finishes, defensive battles and pretty much something for everyone that enjoys the sport.
Overall, the most interesting thing to come out of the weekend from my perspective is the fact that five teams that never won a D2 playoff game- Assumption, Humboldt State, Henderson State, Emporia State and Tuskegee- all picked up their first wins. In addition, Slippery Rock won its first playoff game since 1998 and Ferris State won its first since 1996. Playoff veterans like Northwest Missouri, Grand Valley State, Valdosta State and North Alabama are also all still alive which makes for an interesting flavor to the rest of these playoffs.
Observations from Week One of the Playoffs
-Minnesota State saw a 28-10 lead turn into a 45-28 deficit in less than a 15 minute span of the second and third quarters. The Mavericks rallied to take a 49-48 lead late in the fourth quarter before their sixth turnover of the game led to the game winning field goal for the Hornets. It is very surprising to see a veteran team like MSU make this many mistakes in a playoff game.
-Valdosta State and Carson-Newman combined for 1368 yards of offense and 71 first downs in VSU's 61-59 win. Eagle quarterback DeAndre Thomas threw for 416 yards out of the veer offense. There were five lead changes in the fourth quarter and three touchdowns scored in the last 1:52. The winning score game on a 28-yard EJ Hilliard touchdown pass on the final play of the game. If you like to watch Arena League-type offense, this was an incredible game.
-In 10 of the 12 opening round games, the team that ran for more yards won the game. The only two exceptions were the Valdosta State/ Carson-Newman game (C-N is a veer option team) and the Minnesota State/ Emporia State game (MSU turned it over six times). Even in today's high scoring college football environment, running the football and stopping the run is the best way to win football games.
-Assumption and Bowie State were both forced to start their backup quarterbacks due to injury. Assumption won the game 51-29 with Mark Monks completing 21 of 31 for 257 yards and four touchdowns. Trevon Bennett threw for 309 yards for BSU, but also had three interceptions.
-The playoff woes continued for Ashland as the Eagles lost 45-28 to GVSU in a game that was almost a complete reversal of a 45-31 win by Ashland over the Lakers on Halloween. Despite two unbeaten regular seasons and four playoff appearances since 2007, the Eagles have won just a single playoff game in school history.
Super Region One
IUP (9-2) at Shepherd (10-0)
The playoff history between these two teams dates back to 1999. That year Shepherd upset IUP 9-6 in a first round game. It was the first D2 playoff win for Shepherd or any school from what was then the WVIAC. IUP and Shepherd have met two subsequent times in the postseason, the last being a 27-17 IUP win in 2012.
Under Monte Cater Shepherd has traditionally been a run first team. But this year the Rams are different as they rely on the arm of quarterback Jeff Ziemba to carry the load offensively. Ziemba is having an incredible season as he has thrown 26 TD passes with just two interceptions. IUP should be the best defense the Rams have seen all season- the Crimson Hawks have intercepted 21 passes and had seven defensive players named to the PSAC All-Conference team.
That said where this game will probably be won or lost is in the matchup of the IUP offense versus the Shepherd defense. The Crimson Hawks average over 300 yards per game with the dynamic duo of quarterback Lenny Williams and running back Chris Temple leading the way. The Rams give up just 90 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry so something will have to give. If IUP can approach its rushing average the Crimson Hawks win this game. I think the Ram defense will be slow down IUP just enough. Shepherd 27 IUP 23.
Assumption (11-1) at Slippery Rock (11-1)
Over the last two weeks both teams have won conference title games and had impressive first round wins over CIAA teams. Translation: these two teams have a lot of momentum heading into this week.
As I mentioned earlier in the column, Assumption was forced to start backup quarterback Marc Monks against Bowie State last week and he did very well. Even if starter Brendan Tobey is not back and ready to play this week, the Greyhounds appear to be just fine at the quarterback position.
The Greyhound defense has given up some yards this year and that has to be a concern in facing an SRU offense that is among the most explosive in the country. Assumption will especially need to slow down the SRU running game as much as possible.
For the SRU defense, the formula is simple: stop the run and then turn up the pressure on the quarterback and force turnovers. The Rock allows just 62 rush yards per game, has 39 sacks and leads the country with 41 turnovers forced. It is absolutely imperative that Assumption get some production from the running game or this could be a long day. The Greyhounds are a gutty team and I think they find a way to stay in it, but I think The Rock wins this game. Slippery Rock 38 Assumption 27
Super Region Two
Valdosta State (9-2) at West Georgia (10-1)
When these two rivals met in mid-October, the Wolves dominated with a 49-28 win. UWG also ended VSU's season last year by winning 31-17 in the playoffs. That was after the Blazers had dominated 40-6 when the two teams met in 2014 regular season. Things can change substantially over the course of a season and you never know how a game will play out.
The last time these two teams met, VSU quarterback EJ Hilliard did not have a good game, throwing for just 69 yards with two interceptions. But since then Hilliard has been on fire. Dating back to his last interception against UWG, he has gone 176 straight pass attempts without throwing an interception. He has 12 touchdown passes during that period and has run the ball effectively as well.
Of course, UWG has a great defense so it will again be a bit more challenging for Hilliard and the VSU offense. But I do think the Blazers can move the ball and score points. The VSU defense has some problems though and I think they will have a tough time with the UWG running game. At the end of the day I think the Wolves grind this one out and keep the Blazer offense standing on the sidelines as much as possible. West Georgia 34 Valdosta State 27
Tuskegee (9-2) at North Alabama (9-2)
Two years ago UNA beat Tuskegee 30-27 in a game that was much closer than many expected. If the Lions may have overlooked Tuskegee a bit in that game, they certainly will not do it again this week. These two schools are both located in Alabama but this is only the fourth all-time meeting between them. Besides the 2013 playoff game, the other two meetings occurred in 1979 and 1980.
Another intriguing thing about this game is the familiarity between the head coaches. During Bobby Wallace's first stint at UNA, the Lions won the three straight national championship from 1993-95. Current Tuskegee head coach Willie Slater was Wallace's offensive coordinator on those great UNA teams.
To have a shot of winning this game, Tuskegee will have to find a way to disrupt the rhythm of UNA quarterback Luke Wingo. Wingo has played very well lately as he torched the Newberry defense last week for 322 yards on just 16 pass attempts. If the Golden Tigers can limit the big plays and force UNA to earn everything they will have a shot. North Alabama 32 Tuskegee 20
Super Region Three
Humboldt State (10-1) at Northwest Missouri (11-0)
To me this is the most interesting of all the second round games.
HSU brings in an offense that racked up 707 yards of offense last week in the win over Augustana. The Lumberjacks have the nation's leading rusher in sophomore Ja'Quan Gardner, who has rushed for 2242 yards and 25 touchdowns. They also proved last week that they are more than capable of throwing the ball as well.
The Bearcats may have the best defense in the country. Northwest gives up just 219 yards per game and has forced 35 turnovers. There is not really a discernable weakness for an opponent to attack. Will Gardner find room to run and will HSU be able to move the football? Finding out is what makes matchups like this so interesting.
HSU's defense has probably been a bit underrated as they did a good job last week against Augustana. Northwest quarterback Brady Bolles is playing the best football of his career after struggling as a passer his first year and a half as the starter. If he and the Northwest offense can keep it up, they will be tough to beat. Northwest Missouri 38 Humboldt State 24
Emporia State (10-2) at Henderson State (11-1)
I do not think many expected both of these teams to win their first round games, but here we are. As I mentioned last week, HSU is a ball control and play defense type of team and that is exactly how they were able to beat Sioux Falls last week. They look for opportunities to get points but they are also content to play the field position game and force opponents to drive the length of the field. It has worked well for them this fall.
ESU on the other hand is just OK defensively but the Hornets can score points in bunches. Quarterback Brent Wilson is a gunslinger and he has plenty of speedy targets to throw to. But HSU matches that with a defense that leads the country with 27 interceptions. The Reddies are great against the pass despite having just 13 sacks this year. It is a weird combination but it works. Wilson should have time to throw, but can his receivers get separation against the HSU secondary?
I think this will be a very good game. The result will probably hinge on whether the Reddies can succeed with the same bend but don't break approach that worked last week. Emporia State 31 Henderson State 26
Super Region Four
Grand Valley (10-2) at Ferris State (11-0)
These are two bitter rivals located just over an hour a part from each other. While GVSU is obviously the program regarded as the national power, the Lakers have not had much success in this series lately, with four straight losses to FSU.
Of course the main reason FSU has had the upper hand lately is the play of 2014 Harlon Hill winning quarterback Jason Vander Laan. Vander Laan has owned the Lakers over the last four years, accounting for 1467 yards of total offense and 16 touchdowns in those four wins over GVSU. He threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting- a 61-24 FSU win- in September.
I expect this to be a much better game. The Lakers played very well last week in the victory over Ashland and appear to have tightened some things up on a defense that has had problems stopping people at times this year. GVSU has a nice vertical passing game and if quarterback Bart Williams can make some chunk plays downfield without turning the ball over this will be a close game. Ferris State 34 Grand Valley 31
CSU-Pueblo (11-1) at Midwestern State (10-1)
This will be CSU-Pueblo's tenth playoff game in the last five seasons. Remarkably, this will also be the first true road game of the ten. How the Thunderwolves react going into a hostile environment for the first time in the postseason could play a major role in this game.
Unfortunately for the Thunderwolves, star running back Cameron McDondle is still not 100% and played in limited fashion last week. Unfortunately for Midwestern State, Cam's younger brother Bernard is just as effective. Bernard rushed for 187 yards and three touchdowns last weekend. I expect the Thunderwolves to protect freshman quarterback AJ Thompson as much as possible and keep the ball on the ground.
MSU is not really great in any one facet of the game, except for the one that counts most: winning. The Mustangs have shown a resiliency and an ability to win games in whatever fashion necessary this season. I think MSU will be right in this game as well, but I am concerned that the Mustang defense will eventually give way to the CSU-Pueblo running game. CSU_Pueblo 28 Midwestern State 20
Mailbag
[Q] Would you now admit that the NSIC is just a middle of the pack conference? They went 0-3 last week including the embarrassing loss by Minnesota State.
[A] For this year, yes I think I would have to conclude that the NSIC is down a bit. However, one year does not establish a trend and I would still conclude that this is one of the best leagues in D2.
A few facts to back me up: Since the NSIC absorbed the four former NCC programs in 2008, the league has had six different teams make the playoffs, has a 23-18 overall playoff record, with three national championship appearances and at least one team in the quarterfinals every year from 2008-14. That includes playing in regions that have had the GLIAC and MIAA in them- not exactly a bunch of hollow wins. Northwest Missouri State has been the benchmark program in D2 over the last decade and the NSIC has a 4-2 playoff record against the Bearcats since 2008. So I am willing to give the NSIC a pass for one bad playoff Saturday this year.
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