November 8th, 2016 12:00am
The final week of the regular season is already upon us. Here is a synopsis of what I see happening in each of the four regions leading up to Sunday's selections. To follow along with the current regional rankings please see the regional rankings tab on our main page:
Super Region One
I think California, LIU-Post and Shepherd are locks to reach the postseason. Fairmont State and IUP are very likely based on the fact that they both should win this weekend.
Assumption and LIU-Post play in the NE-10 championship game. If Assumption wins, both teams will be in the playoffs and there is one spot remaining. If LIU-Post wins, then Assumption gets dropped into the group of potential 2-loss teams fighting over the final two spots in the region.
The group of two loss teams includes Edinboro, Notre Dame, the winner of Bowe State and Winston-Salem State in the CIAA title game and even Virginia State if the Trojans can get past Tuskegee this weekend. Also to note in this region: A CIAA team only needs to finish in the top eight for earned access to come into play. So if the winner of BSU and WSSU for example is seeded eighth, they would bump the seventh seeded team. I know this is a lot to digest.
My prediction for Sunday:
1. California
2. Shepherd
3. Fairmont State
4. Assumption
5. IUP
6. LIU-Post
7. Winston-Salem State
Super Region Two
I believe the first four teams that are ranked in this region will be in the playoffs for sure. North Alabama, Valdosta State and UNC-Pembroke all have easy wins on Saturday. Newberry plays Wingate but I think the Wolves are in even with a loss because they have the head to head advantage over North Greenville.
Florida Tech should be Delta State and if the Panthers do they will be in as well. I am not willing to guarantee victory in this one, however, as both Panther losses have been shootouts and the Statesmen can score points. However, FIT should win this game at home.
Tuskegee plays a very good Virginia State team on Saturday. If the Golden Tigers win they are in, but what about if they lose? It could be interesting because as long as Tuskegee can stay in the top eight the Golden Tigers could get in via earned access.
North Greenville has the seventh spot because the Crusaders own head to head victories over both Wingate in West Alabama. I think NGU is relatively safe, unless Wingate beats Newberry. If that happens then Wingate could shoot up a few spots, negating the head to head advantage NGU has over them and cascading NGU down to 8th and out of the playoffs. I would take at least two big upsets for anyone else in this region to have a chance.
My prediction for Sunday:
1. North Alabama
2. Newberry
3. Valdosta State
4. Tuskegee
5. UNC-Pembroke
6. Florida Tech
7. North Greenville
Super Region Three
Northwest Missouri, Sioux Falls and Harding will all be in the playoffs and each should have an easy win this weekend. Emporia State has a tough game with rival Washburn but I still think the Hornets will get in the playoffs if they do not win on Saturday, mainly because head to head advantage will keep them from falling below Central Missouri.
Minnesota-Duluth is in a similar boat. The Bulldogs should beat St. Cloud State on Saturday, but it is a rivalry game and with UMD's struggles on defense you never know what could happen. I think that if UMD loses that game, they will be out of the playoffs because they would then have two losses to teams with .500 records.
Azusa Pacific has a tough, but winnable game at Colorado Mesa. I think APU is obviously in with a win but a loss will make things interesting with the other two loss teams.
Central Missouri should win this weekend and be in as well. I just cannot see the committee moving the Mules out of the top seven in favor of one of the GAC teams.
For Southern Arkansas and Henderson State, the plan is simple: win on Saturday and pray for upsets. SAU could get in with a loss by either UMD or APU. HSU would need both to lose to have much of a shot.
My prediction for Sunday:
1. Northwest Missouri
2. Sioux Falls
3. Harding
4. Emporia State
5. Minnesota-Duluth
6. Azusa Pacific
7. Central Missouri
Super Region Four
The only two teams in this region that I am 100% confident will be in the playoffs are Grand Valley and Southwest Baptist. GVSU has a challenging game at Wayne State but will be in even with a loss. SBU is not going to lose on Saturday.
After that this region is wide open because so many teams have potentially tough games on Saturday. Midwestern State, Texas A&M-Commerce, Truman State, Ferris State, Colorado Mesa and Ashland all fall into that category. Colorado Mines should beat Black Hills State and then hope that an upset or two can get them into the top seven.
Prediction for Sunday:
1. Grand Valley
2. Midwestern State
3. Texas A&M-Commerce
4. Southwest Baptist
5. Ferris State
6. Colorado Mines
7. Ashland
News and Notes
-IUP quarterback Lenny Williams suffered an apparent serious knee injury in the first quarter of his team's 31-20 win over Mercyhurst. If the Crimson Hawks can get by Bloomsburg this week, they should be in the playoffs, but the loss of Williams will put a significant damper on IUP's playoff potential.
-Fairmont State lost 27-17 to Shepherd but I was encouraged by the Falcons' performance in this game. They did have four turnovers, but they more than held their own from a physical standpoint on both sides of the ball. If the Falcons can win this week and reach the playoffs, they will be a team to be reckoned with in SR1.
-It is always fun to see long suffering programs have some success. Lock Haven (4-6) has won four of its last five games and on Saturday will be going for its first five-win season in 34 years when the Bald Eagles travel to Mercyhurst. Last week LHU beat East Stroudsburg 66-41, which was the first win over the Warriors since 1989.
-The Tuskegee playoff eligibility saga continued into this week. It was announced last week that Tuskegee had reached an agreement to play the loser of the Albany State-Fort Valley State last Saturday. But after FVSU emerged victorious, ASU then decided not to play against Tuskegee. However, Virginia State stepped up and agreed to play at Tuskegee this weekend in a game that will benefit the winner from a playoff perspective. Kudos to VSU for stepping up and playing this game.
-It has been a rough few days at Bemidji State. The Beavers' playoff hopes were dashed in a 42-41 loss to Minnesota State-Moorhead when a potential game-tying PAT was missed with just :39 remaining in the game. On Monday it was announced that Head Coach Jeff Tesch had been fired for reportedly using a racial slur during a preseason practice. Tesch had been on paid leave since just prior to the season opener.
Top Games this Week
Azusa Pacific (9-1) at Colorado Mesa (8-2)
These two teams are in different regions, but are definitely in the running for a playoff berth. Even though the game is at CMU, I like APU simply because the Cougars are much better defensively. Azusa Pacific 34 Colorado Mesa 23
Virginia State (8-2) at Tuskegee (8-1)
As mentioned earlier, this is the game added just this week so that Tuskegee can get to the ten games required to be playoff eligible. It also benefits VSU as it keeps some slim playoff hopes alive. Plus it is a good non-conference game which is also entertaining. When I look at this game, I think it is probably a tossup. VSU relies on 1,000 yard rushers Trenton Cannon and Kavon Bellamy while quarterback Kevin Lacey is the key for the Golden Tigers. Tuskegee 21 Virginia State 20
Wingate (8-2) at Newberry (9-1)
Newberry has already clinched a share of the SAC title and I think the Wolves are a playoff team regardless of the results on Saturday. Wingate can clinch a share of a SAC title, but more importantly, the Bulldogs have to win to get into the playoffs. These are the top two defensive teams in the SAC, which you would expect. Newberry, however, has been a little bit more explosive offensively. Combined with having home field advantage I think the Wolves have a slight edge. Newberry 27 Wingate 23
Northeast 10 Championship
Assumption (9-1) at LIU-Post (10-0)
These have been the top two teams in the league all season long and they rank 1-2 in the conference in almost every important offensive category. When these teams met at Assumption in early October, the Pioneers won by a single point (19-18). There really is not much more to say other than these are two very evenly matched teams and as usual in big games, it will likely be the team that makes the fewest mistakes that comes out on top. Assumption 24 LIU-Post 21
PSAC Championship
Kutztown (7-3) at California (9-0)
After starting the season 0-3, the Golden Bears got it rolling and won the PSAC East Division to reach this game. However, one could easily make the case that the reason KU has won seven straight is because they got to play PSAC East opponents and that the PSAC West was much stronger. California is the best team in the PSAC this year and possible SR1. I expect the Vulcans to have their way in this game. California 41 Kutztown 20
CIAA Championship
Winston-Salem State (8-2) versus Bowie State (7-3)
These two teams are ranked 9th (BSU) and 10th (WSSU) in the most recent region rankings in SR1. The winner has a legitimate shot of finishing high enough in the final regional rankings to make the playoffs, so this is obviously a huge game. BSU has the top offense in the league this year and a penchant for forcing turnovers on defense. Bowie State 27 Winston-Salem State 24
Mailbag
[Q] You pointed out a couple of weeks ago that the GMAC schools will be in Super Region One when the regions are realigned next year. I couldn't help but notice that several of the schools entering the GMAC are coming from the GLIAC. Do you think they switched conferences simply because it will be easier for them in the playoffs?
[A] I think the schools you are speaking of (Findlay, Hillsdale, Lake Erie, Malone, Ohio Dominican and Walsh) made the move to align themselves with a conference made up of similar private institutions. Geography also played a part in the decision, especially for the Ohio schools. I also think ability to compete within a conference in sports like football was probably a large factor in these schools switching leagues, but I do not think regional placement was even on the radar in the decision making process.
Contact
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