August 16th, 2018 9:00am
Anyone that watches college football closely realizes that the game has changed significantly over the past 10-15 years. It seems almost every team runs some form of a spread offense these days, and no-huddle offenses are the norm as well.
But, it has also generally held true that the teams that win national championships at any level are the ones that play great defense and have ball control offenses. Northwest Missouri State, along with Alabama at the FBS level and North Dakota State at the FCS level, have each thrived using that formula in recent years.
Last season Texas A&M-Commerce completely broke the mold of what a national championship team looks like, at least in my mind. The Lions were second in the country in passing offense and near the bottom (155th) in running the football, averaging just 98 yards per game.
The weakness of playing TAMUC’s style has always been that an offense that is too fast-paced leaves a team’s defense exposed. When you face good teams in the playoffs and the weather starts to turn late in the season, teams with a wide-open style of play always seem to falter.
TAMUC Head Coach Colby Carthel’s way of combatting that issue is to play a lot of guys on the defensive side of the ball. That’s a necessity when your own offensive pace dictates that your defense might be on the field for over 80 plays per game. Rather than having a tired, beat up defense, the Lions were ready to get after it in the playoffs with defensive players that had seen less snaps then most others around the country.
When you look at the overall landscape in the sport of football, it continues to evolve away from being a game of simple brute force. The NFL puts in new rules each year that further limit contact. In many parts of the country fewer kids are playing tackle football while flag football is thriving. I caught part of a 4th grade scrimmage a few days ago where both teams were running spread offenses. Fullbacks and tight ends are a dying breed.
I believe we will continue to see an evolution to the game and it will be interesting to see if there are more college coaches out there like Carthel that can find an edge amongst the changes that helps them win.
A New Media Package
Things continue to evolve on the media distribution front as well. The NCAA announced this week that a total of 22 D2 “showcase” games will be broadcast this season. Half will be on the ESPN3 format while the other 11 will be on what’s called a hybrid format. For more information on how all of this works you can click on the following link:
I like the what the NCAA is doing here, mainly because they picked a good slate of games to broadcast. I also like the fact that three games at the end of season will be picked up based on what the most attractive match ups are.
There are two games this week on this format, both on Thursday night at 8:05 Eastern:
Texas A&M-Kingsville at Texas A&M-Commerce (ESPN3)
Carson-Newman at West Florida (Hybrid)
Monte Cater Retires/ Shepherd Switching Leagues
Shepherd coach Monte Cater has hung up his whistle after 31 years on the sidelines with the Rams. He built Shepherd into a very strong D2 program during his tenure, including a trip to the national title game in 2015. He finished his coaching career with 245 wins, 17 conference titles and 13 playoff appearances. Ernie McCook- who has been a Shepherd assistant for the past 18 years- will replace Cater.
Shepherd also announced this summer that the school will be leaving the MEC after this school year and joining the PSAC. The loss of Shepherd will be a huge boost to the football profile of the PSAC. The Rams have been the most successful program in Super Region One this decade and if that continues the PSAC will easily regain its spot as the prominent football conference in the region.
The spot left open in the MEC by Shepherd’s departure will be filled by Frostburg State, a D3 school in Maryland that is moving up to this level. Any school moving up from D3 will probably struggle for a few years, but long-term Frostburg State looks like a nice addition. FSU will be the largest school in the MEC and is in a good recruiting area.
An Even Stronger Gulf South Conference this Year?
North Alabama has made its exit to Division I, which obviously leaves a bit of hole in the fabric of the GSC. Not only was UNA a terrific football program, but the city of Florence was home to the D2 national title game for three decades.
Although it’s never pleasant to have a program the caliber of UNA’s depart, the one thing I have learned over my years of following the game at this level is that there is always a program willing to step up its game to replace a lost power.
Despite the loss of UNA, I don’t think the GSC will miss a beat this year. West Florida made it all the way to the national championship game last year in just its second year as a program. Despite having a wide array of returning talent, the Argonauts weren’t even the choice of GSC coaches to win the conference.
That honor goes to defending conference champion West Alabama, which returns several key players from last year’s team including QB Harry Satterwhite, who was a first team all-conference selection last fall.
In addition to Satterwhite, the 2017 GSC Offensive MVP- running back Devontae Jackson from West Georgia- and Defensive MVP- linebacker Terry Samuel from UWA- both return. In fact, there were 32 underclassmen on the GSC all-conference team last season.
On paper, Delta State looks strong enough to repeat as a playoff team, with Florida Tech and Valdosta State both having that kind of potential as well with a few breaks. Of all the GSC teams I mentioned, only FIT will be replacing the quarterback position. This will be a fun conference to watch this season and I fully expect to see a GSC team to make it to Kansas City for a third straight year.
A Few Other Storylines to Follow in 2018:
- Harlon Hill Race. Five of the top ten vote-getters from 2017 return this year: RB Marc Jones (Gannon), QB Amir Hall (Bowie State), QB Brook Bolles (Central Missouri), RB Devontae Jackson (West Georgia) and quarterback Harry Satterwhite (West Alabama). With so many top players returning, it will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
- Minnesota State Preseason #1. The Mavericks are the top team in our preseason poll after finishing 13-1 last year and reaching the national semifinals. MSU has the luxury of returning almost every key player to an offensive unit that produced two 1,000 yard rushers last season. There are a couple of holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball, but I think the Mavericks are a solid selection as a preseason number one.
- Can Northwest Missouri State “rebound”? It’s a pretty high standard to suggest a 9-win team had an off year, but the Bearcats struggled down the stretch in 2017, losing three of their final four games. It was the first time since 2003 that the program failed to reach double digit wins so obviously the bar is set high at this school. The Bearcats will rely on redshirt freshman QB Braden Wright to lead an offense that struggled at the end of last season.
- Can Texas A&M-Commerce repeat? As I mentioned earlier, the Lions play a lot of guys on defense and several return from last season. In all, TAMUC has 18 returning players that started at least five games. The big question mark will be replacing Harlon Hill winning QB Luis Garcia and his 4,999 passing yards. The quarterback position is obviously important to any program, but especially at TAMUC, with the pass-heavy offensive system.
Top Games this Week
IUP (13-1) @ Ashland (11-2)
It was a great game last year when these two teams met, with IUP prevailing 26-23 on a field goal on the final play of the game. Even with the game shifting to Ashland this year, I have to give the Crimson Hawks the advantage: IUP returns standout QB Lenny Williams, leading rusher Samir Bullock and four starters on the offensive line. IUP 28 Ashland 20
Indianapolis (11-1) @ Grand Valley (8-3)
I don’t think Al McKeller will be able to sneak up on the Grand Valley defense this year. In his very first college game last fall, McKeller gashed the Lakers for 206 rushing yards as the Greyhounds stunned GVSU 24-20. GVSU must replace six defensive starters and a few key contributors on offense, but the return of standout QB Bart Williams should help soften the blow. Grand Valley 27 Indianapolis 23
California (9-3) @ Ohio Dominican (7-3)
These two teams met in the season opener last year, with quarterbacks Michael Kier (Cal) and Grant Russell (ODU) combining for nearly 800 yards through the air. Both signal callers have graduated so that position is a bit of an unknown coming into the game. However, ODU suffered few overall losses to graduation and is riding a seven-game winning streak into 2018. That gives the Panthers an edge in my opinion. Ohio Dominican 31 California 23.
Carson-Newman (8-3) @ West Florida (11-4)
UWF will try to build upon the momentum of last season, when the Argonauts made it all the way to the national title game in just their second year of football at the school. C-N is the favorite by many to prevail in the SAC this season and the Eagles are prone to give opponents fits with their option-based offense. West Florida 30 Carson-Newman 20
Central Missouri (9-3) @ Fort Hays State (11-1)
The Mules return three pre-season All-Americans- including a Harlon Hill finalist in QB Brook Bolles- to an offense that averaged 524 yards per game last year. FHSU returns QB Jake Mezera and 14 other starters to a team that set a school record for wins last season. It will be challenging for the Tigers to replace NFL-bound defensive lineman Nathan Shepherd, but the other pieces are in place to once again challenge for the MIAA title. Fort Hays State 31 Central Missouri 24
Central Oklahoma (8-4) @ Pittsburg State (8-4)
These teams finished strong last year, as both finished the season on six game winning streaks. The challenge for UCO will be replacing the standout passing combo of QB Chas Stallard and WR JT Luper. PSU has the luxury of returning 4-year starter John Roderique at quarterback, but the challenge will be keeping him healthy after several injury-plagued seasons. Pittsburg State 31 Central Oklahoma 20
Catawba (9-2) @ West Georgia (9-4)
This is an important early season game in Super Region Two. The Indians have some rebuilding to do defensively so it will be interesting to see if they can hold up against what should be a strong UWG offense. West Georgia 27 Catawba 17
Humboldt State (8-2) @ Midwestern State (10-1)
Sadly, HSU embarks on its final season of college football after the administration decided to eliminate the program this summer. I think it will be tall order for HSU to match last season’s record with coach Robb Smith and a few key players leaving the program this past offseason. Midwestern State 40 Humboldt State 23
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