October 2nd, 2026 12:00am
Halfway through the season, and there is rather clear separation between contenders and pretenders. The conference’s standouts are plentiful, surprises are abundant, and disappointments alive and well. The top four teams are not exactly a clearcut group of schools. This week is more of a tease – next week, there are two races that will really begin: one to the top, and one to the bottom.
I did have a request from a reader about how I would order the teams at this point in the season. Here are my thoughts:
Across the landscape, two potential major factors exist for this weekend One is the weather. While not the vaunted hurricane games of the past, it will be a wet atmosphere for much of the CIAA footprint. The other factor? Officials, if you listen to what the coaches have said lately. Some are not happy with the way games are called. It may not buy them any favors…… How much do these factors affect these games? Read on to find out.
Games in order of interest
Shaw (2-1, 4-1) at Bowie State (1-1, 1-3)
The Down Town Raleigh Boys head north to Maryland to take on a Bowie State squad looking to establish a winning streak. In some respects, these two squads have similar identities – establish the run and then use the pass the keep the defense honest. Shaw has a tendency to allow teams to hang around for some time, as indicated by blown double digit leads twice this season. They’ve also been in two overtime games, and successful in both tries. Living on the edge is scary. Do not be fooled by Bowie State’s record, as the Bulldogs played two FCS opponents. BSU comes into this game averaging around 24 points per game against Division II opponents.
I’m curious to see if Shaw QB Alexander Marsh can continue his current hot streak. He just passed 2000 yards of passing in his young career. Bowie’s secondary has struggled this year and exploiting it would be important to reach 5 wins. I do expect to see Shaw struggle some in the run game, as Bowie’s run defense is their strength. This game does feel like a trap game though, especially if Shaw gets caught peeking ahead to next week’s opponent or repeats what has happened in prior games and does not put away the Bulldogs early. Advantage: Shaw, cautiously watching
Fayetteville State (1-2, 2-3) at Livingstone (2-2, 2-3)
Right now, this game serves as the dividing line between the top and bottom half of the conference. FSU (and I after last week’s pick) are reeling from a lack of scoring punch, and they need to figure out something fast. Enter Livingstone, whose defense has enough holes to make Swiss cheese jealous. The Blue Bears have surrendered 418 yards a game on average, which is third worst in conference. What the Blue Bears can do is move the football on offense. FSU’s defense is a tough unit, as shown last week. So, expect a low scoring game. If weather conditions permit passing game, then you can expect a little bit offensive flow from both teams. Advantage: Fayetteville State, aka the wrong shade of blue crashes Stonecoming.
The following games feature total mismatches on paper, and are measured on the unpatented “Gulp” nervousness scale of concern for the underdog.
Virginia State (3-0, 4-1) vs Lincoln PA (1-1, 1-3)
Lincoln faces a tall task in knocking off a team they have not defeated since 2008. In order to do so, they’d need the Lion defense to slow down the following combinations: VSB QB RJ Matthews taking a deep shot to WR Kevin Gayles or Jaylen Pretlow, avoiding repeated move the chains ability of WR Vincent Ordenes, or slow down Matthews ability to extend plays by running the ball. That’s while finding ways to clone WR Kyrie Tyson into all the skill players. Tyson has been a machine for the Lions on offense, accounting for 153 of 166 passing yards from QB Jayden Triplett. The problem for the Lions? VSU faced the conference’s worst rushing defense last week, and the Lions have the second worst rushing defense. VSU’s rushing offense is pedestrian this year, but could look above average in this game. It is possible that this game does not get out of hand like Lincoln of old, and that could be a win in itself. Advantage: Virginia State, Gulp Score 3 out of 5.
Johnson C. Smith (2-0, 3-1) at Bluefield State (0-3, 0-5)
JCSU hasn’t been blasting opponents off the field off late, and a lot of that has to do with their offensive philosophy. They prefer street fights, bullying opposing defenses with their punishing run game lead by RB Fabian Duncan and Kamarro Edmonds. A philosophical discussion is: To what extent can QB Damien Mazil take over a game if the run game slows down? Moreover, how much success will Bluefield State have against the lead leader in total defense? Big Blue is much more balanced on offense, but it cannot afford to have a bunch of three and outs because JCSU’s offense tends to focus on ball control. Advantage: Johnson C. Smith, Gulp Score 4 out of 5
Elizabeth City State (0-2, 0-4) at Virginia Union (3-0, 4-1)
Well, we have two teams that are going in opposite directions. Fast starting ECSU fizzles out over the course of a game, so much that they have not scored in the fourth quarter. The Viking offense is matching up against a VUU defense that hasn’t allowed a score in 8 straight quarters. Moreover, VUU’s defense, headlined by conference sack leader LB Christian Aiken and standout DB Jessiah Gildersleeve anchoring the secondary, accounted for six sacks last week against Fayetteville State. A lot of those sacks had to do with blanketing receivers, leaving the FSU OL stuck facing a repeated barrage from the VUU front four. ECSU’s defense will have their hands full if last week was any indication. Bowie State’s two headed rushing attack of Daniel Coles and Maximus Jones leaned on ECSU’s defense for 217 yards, and VUU is a more effective group featuring more options. Interestingly, QB RJ Rosales passed for more yards than VUU rushed last week. It will take sidelining the VUU offense, keeping the game somewhat low scoring, and either QB Tre Manley or RB Ameil Braswell to convert third downs for ECSU to have an opportunity for the upset. Advantage: Virginia Union, Gulp Score 4 of 5
Idle
Winston-Salem State (0-3, 0-5) tussles with the CIAA’s worst BSU - winless Bye State. The Rams will probably aim to restore the hierarchical standard on the roster by playing all four quarterbacks and rotating all the linemen to see who will start next week.