November 21st, 2000 12:00am
Most football fans will have their rendition of the traditional Thanksgiving bird for dinner on Thursday. I, however, get to eat, not one, but three portions of bird this holiday - three servings of crow.
My sumptuous meal comes as the result of having been uncannily able to blow the forecast of three of last weekend's first round NCAA D-II playoff contests.
Clearly my main course of crow comes from selecting Northwest Missouri to defeat North Dakota State. I doubt, however, that I am the only one choking on the results of this game.
Maybe a little too much offensive scheming contributed to Northwest's poor second half showing. The 'Cats had not used a hurry-up offense all season, but they chose to bring it out for this game. Numerous dropped passes were a significant factor in Northwest's loss. The fact that North Dakota generally outplayed Northwest Missouri had a little to do with it, too.
And then there was the selection of Valdosta to win over Delta State. Dusty Bonner was the key to my insightful pick gone bad.
Northeastern was supposed to run over Mesa State, but no one told Mesa State about it.
I did get some games right like the UC Davis win, the Nebraska-Omaha win and Catawba's defeat of West Georgia.
At least I was non-committal on the other games.
It probably was not as bad as it looks considering I did add that the consensus pre-playoffs final four look ripe for some upsets.
But given the miss on the NDSU-NWMS game and the other two errant predictions, anyone reading this column henceforth should be fully aware that following my predictions might subject them to a post-Thanksgiving meal of leftover crow.
But last week is now old news and Division II is down to its football Elite Eight .
So without further adieu, I can now head straight into jinxing other teams.
The lead for this weekend has to be North Dakota State's visit to Nebraska-Omaha for a re-match of their early-season meeting won by UNO.
In this age of tag-team slamming, UNO fans have exempted themselves from the run-the-other-team-down approach. The team has focused on running over its opponents. Quietly and with virtually no fanfare, UNO has put itself in a position to vie for the national title.
The fact that this game is in Omaha should be of little consolation to the UNO Mavericks. Beating a competent team twice in the same season is always a tough task.
In my own somewhat meager defense after suggesting NDSU would be at home this weekend - home as in livingroom and TV, not home at the Dome - I hasten to remind readers that NDSU was my preseason pick to win it all.
The Bison faithful, unlike others, did not waiver in their support of coach Bob Babich and crew. For a time last weekend, however, their support was tested as neither quarterback Ryan Johnson nor running back Lamar Gordon had great first-half performances against NWMS. Gordon at least made up for it in the second half, however.
The word awesome is often over-used these days, but the drubbing NDSU heaped upon the Bearcats last week probably makes using the word acceptable. Gordon ranked up 92 yards in the second half. Johnson had less than a stellar day, but he did toss two TD passes. Backup running back DeShawn Perkins contributed 134 yards and one touchdown. After being tied 10-10 at halftime, NDSU ran away with the contest in the
final 30 minutes.
The Bison managed not only to beat the 'Cats, but they did it in the unfriendly confines of Rickenbrode Stadium, home of the Bearcats. They also proved to Dome haters that just because the Bison play in antiseptic environmental conditions seven times a season does not mean they can't rough it outdoors.
So without further wasting of precious web space, let me say NDSU will win this one. This should, of course, should prompt coach Bob Babich immediately to start two-a-days this week to prepare the Bison sufficiently to overcome our selection jinx.
I have not yet figured out how to jinx the UC Davis Aggies, since they have been too good to succumb to outside influences. My unwavering feeling is that the Aggies will head into the semifinals and probably the national championship game. (How's that for a double whammy? Not only am I suggesting Davis will win this weekend but that it will beat the Northeast Region seed in the semifinal. That's a double jinx for only the price of reading one line!)
But logically how can anyone not think the Aggies will advance at least to the semifinals? J.T. O'Sullivan keeps firing TD passes (four last week) and the Aggie attack is balanced. Davis also has just enough defense to thwart all but the best offenses.
Accepting the notion that the competition gets tougher as you go up the playoff ladder, Davis still looks like a strong choice to be the team that ends Mesa State's season. This, however, is based mostly on the strong feeling the Aggies may not be stoppable at all - including through the title game. A bit worrisome is the ease with which Mesa
State disposed of Northeastern. Northeastern was not able to score until less than five minutes remained in a game that by that time was all over except for the shouting.
Northwood, despite its number one seeding in the Northeast Region, did not bid for a second round game, and as a result it heads to Bloomsburg on the heels of a defeat of IUP in a contest that was much closer than the 28-0 score indicated. Three plays essentially won the game for Northwood, two of which were thanks to IUP miscues.
Bloom's Huskies had their hands full dealing with Saginaw's wide open passing attack. Only a zone defense that essentially said Bloom was willing to give up as many short passes as Saginaw was willing to throw allowed Bloom to survive round one. This kept Bloom in the game long enough to scratch out a win.
Eric Miller's five TD passes for Bloom were a key factor. I suspect Miller will be the key factor in its win over Northwood this weekend (my apologies to Bloom's coach Danny Hale for putting the jinx monkey on his back this week).
Like IUP, Bloom does not face an option offense much, but once it gets a copy of last weekend's game film Hale will scope out quickly the way to retaliate. It's actually rather simple - contain Northwood on the outside, stretch out the option toward the sidelines and make sure the linebackers and corners are patient.
After this weekend Bloom should be in Aggies' territory, which if you read the earlier portion of this column, will be where the Huskies end a very good season.
My final attempt at taking a good team and ruining its chances will be a cop out. There is no way anyone should get close to trying to predicting a winner in the Catawba-Delta State game.
It's said that defense wins championships. If so then Catawba will be playing in the Fargo Dome next weekend. This line often is true unless you face an over-powering offense. Delta State may not be a dominating offense, but it sure is strong. It also has a reasonably good defense that twice this year stymied Valdosta's quarterback, Dusty Bonner.
And so there you have it. Four teams have now been anointed with the knowledge that they are on the loser's side of my predictions, which should be reason enough for them to take heart.
The game of the day is UNO hosting NDSU. Backyard brawls are always fun, especially when the contestants have something to prove.
In case you missed it, the Harlon Hill regional finalists have been selected. The list, which is on D-2football.com, is a very strong one. But I have one regret. Thanks to the all-too-often focus on stats and offensive players, in my eyes one of the best candidates for the award is not up for consideration. It's Robert Garza, offensive lineman from
Texas A&M-Kingsville.
Regardless of the Harlon Hill, Mr. Garza will be high on our list of award recipients. He also should be high on the list of those who will receive an award in a more tangible manner - something called money -when he signs an NFL contract after being drafted next spring.
But Robert Garza notwithstanding, the list of candidates for the coveted Harlon Hill trophy is a good one.
From this perspective the list narrows down quickly to four candidates, Justin Coleman, J.T. O'Sullivan, Tony Miles and Randy McKavish.
What, no Dusty Bonner? No, not in his first year in Division II and not as a junior especially when there are other worthy senior candidates.
Instead of going over why the other three candidates are not on my short list, despite all of them being excellent players, it is more fitting to go over why the four listed above are candidates.
Justin Colemen put Nebraska-Kearney on the map this year. Although his team did not make it to the tournament Coleman was crucial to the success Kearney did enjoy. If stats are crucial to a successful Harlon Hill candidate, Coleman is in great shape. All you need to know is that he passed for 11,213 yards in his career. Coleman, however, will not win the award. This is not a career award, and not being in the tournament hurts. His biggest problem, however, is the competition at his position from other candidates on the list.
Tony Miles will not win the award either. Special teams players are the easiest to overlook and Miles' stats as a receiver are not of the Harlon Hill variety. But this stated, if I had a team and Mr. Miles was around to pick, he might be my first selection. He might be selected for other teams this spring, too, which will allow him to continue wrecking other teams with punt and kick returns. But, he still will not win the award.
This narrows the list down to two quarterbacks, McKavish and O'Sullivan.
A quick look at the QB stats and you would conclude that if the choice is down to these two O'Sulllivan is a slam dunk. He has the stats. He's on a winning team that could go to Florence in two weeks. No UC-Davis game summary is devoid of numerous mentions of J.T..
But, this choice is not as easy as it appears to be. At the risk of what I know will be screaming about my regional bias, I still must suggest that not giving Randy McKavish full consideration is a major mistake.
McKavish, however, comes into the voting without a chance to showcase himself in the playoffs. The fact that he piloted one of the most successful four-year stretches his team ever had will be long forgotten by the time the ballots are cast.
There will be voters who vote solely on stats and will find McKavish not listed in the upper echelon of QB numbers in D-II, so they will reason, he can't be that good. I use the word reason advisedly, however.
I have a special perspective on McKavish after having seen him play eight times in his college career doing his trick of running 70 yards to gain 10 after a play looked like it was stopped for a considerable loss.
I have seen him turn disasters into opportunities, most of which he cashed.
I have seen him spearhead a unit that without him probably would have been about half as successful as it was.
I also will see him not win the Harlon Hill Award. Not because he does not deserve it, but rather because not enough voters will do the homework needed to determine his real merit as a candidate.
With luck, McKavish might end up in the final three. If he does, more diligent work by the Hill selection committee might allow him to accept the trophy the night before the D-II championship game, but there are too many mights and maybes in this.
McKavish will not win. J.T. O'Sullivan will. It's a tough call, but I can't really complain about O'Sullivan's selection as the Award winner should he end up as the choice. He follows in a long line of excellent QB's cut from the mold of their coach and ex-QB Bob Biggs..
So, after possibly wrecking the playoffs hopes for several teams this weekend, I fell compelled to remind you that the opinions expressed in this column are all mine, and as usual, to borrow from Dennis Miller, I could be wrong, but then you already know that.
But, now that you have read this column and learned little or nothing, you can write off this week's effort as merely the fulfillment of my commitment to D2football.com. But think again. There is a method to this madness.
You see, now that I have forewarned everyone about my jinx potential I really am in a no-lose position. If my picks win, I look good. If my picks lose you were warned that my jinxing talents actually should have made you understand that you should have taken my predictions of the losers as actually being the winners.
Right after the season I am taking this talent and building a new career as network news anchor exclusively covering elections. My predictions certainly can't be worse than the TV networks' calls November 7, and they certainly are no more confusing than the election itself.