October 31st, 2001 12:00am
Two more weeks - that's all there is before the playoff match ups are announced. But for some teams, the one and done period begins right now.
Perhaps the most significant of the playoff-critical games is Central Missouri State's visit to Truman. A Truman win likely would flip-flop the two in the Midwest Region rankings. But regardless of the outcome, both teams face either challenges to their playoff spot or a chance to regain a spot when the play their final regular season games November 10. Truman still has to face the Missouri Western while Central Missouri has its final game against the Pitt State Gorillas.
Although it might not seem to be consequential, Nebraska-Omaha's visit to the FargoDome this weekend might be just the place for the weekend's big upset. The Bison are playing for pride - pride that has been severely damaged lately. Nebraska-Omaha does not have playoff risk with a loss this weekend, but it does risk losing home field advantage. The UNO Mavericks probably don't have great jeopardy in this game, but the Bison badly need a big win. This will not be a time when the Mavs can afford to be even a little lax in their readiness.
Likewise Bloomsburg would not appear to be at great risk when it hosts Kutztown this weekend, but waiting anxiously in the wings is Shepherd. A trip up this week or next for Bloom sends Shepherd to the tournament in place of the Huskies. I expect the Huskies to take a major bite out of Kutztown's hide this weekend, but you never know.
In the Northeast also, Saginaw has to be on its toes when it visits Michigan Tech. Michigan Tech gave Grand Valley a tussle last weekend and could do so again to the Cardinals. Like it might be for Bloom, this could a one and done weekend for Saginaw. I doubt they will be done, however.
Texas A&M-Kingsville should not be at risk this weekend, but it can't look toward next weekend's encounter with Angelo State either.
It seems like the top two teams in each region will emerge from this weekend unscathed. Slots three and four in some regions, however, remain very open and could change over the final two regular season games, especially in the Northeast, Midwest and West regions.
To some people the release this week of the 24 regional nominees for the Harlon Hill award might have been the highlight of the week.
A quick glance at the list would have any offensive coordinator salivating at the prospect of getting this crew on a roster. Sadly, however, a defensive coordinator will have to look elsewhere for his dream team. Only one defensive player, Chad Geiger from Nebraska-Omaha was nominated. There are nine quarterbacks on the list.
The award is billed as the Division II College Football Player of the Year award so obviously, based on the nominations, there are no worthy offensive or defensive linemen fitting this description and only 4.2 percent of the total numbers of nominees have any connection with anything other than offensive positions. But this rant is best reserved for another day. The reality is the list is out and will be the one sports information directors vote on.
Now how do you suppose that vote is done? The SID's will look at film on the nominees, call the various players' coaches, talk to teams that have played against the player and talk to press folks who have seen them play.
NOT
What will happen is that the voters will scan the stat lists to see how the candidates stack up in the various numerical departments. Typically at that point a vote is cast. Exceptions, of course, exist when one of the nominees happens to play for the SID's school.
In some cases the SID's have a personal reference if one of the candidates happened to play against his school during the season. If not, stats rule the balloting.
As sarcastic as this is beginning to sound, realistically SID's have almost no other way to make their decisions. But it's hardly the correct way.
Thankfully the candidate list usually includes worthy individuals. Even if the vote is not perfect it is not too far wrong either. Since the inception of the Harlon Hill award in 1986 none of the winners were unfit to receive the attention and accolades the award bestows upon the winner.
But certainly there has been debate about whether another candidate could have or should have been the winner. In some measure this is resolved by the way the Harlon Hill committee conducts the voting. The final tally is not known until the award winner is announced at the Award banquet the night before the D2 championship game. The recipient sits at the banquet table alongside the two other top vote getters. At least this way the top three and not just the final winner get some of the credit they deserve.
But the process is not always equitable even with the thoughtfully designed process the Harlon Hill folks have put in place. But then given the lack of national coverage for D2 it hardly could be otherwise. In fact, relative to most awards of this kind, the Harlon Hill selection process is perhaps done more equitably than any other.
What would be nice would be if the voters had a chance to compare the candidates side by side and cast their votes based on comparable performances, not merely stats.
At the regional level of the balloting to a small degree this is possible. Some of the nominees in each region have played against each other. More valid comparisons should result from this since at this point in the process only the voters in the individual regions vote on players within their region.
But nine weeks ago no one knew for sure who the nominees would be. They do now, which makes these match-ups even more significant to the balloting process.
This weekend three match-ups of a sort occur that will give more fans a chance to see Hill nominees face off against each other.
In the Midwest this weekend fans and voters will be able to make some judgments when Truman's quarterback Eric Howe is matched against Central Missouri's receiver Kevin Nickerson.
A hopefully healthy Lamar Gordon at North Dakota State will display his wares while Nebraska-Omaha's Geiger will try to defend against him.
In the Northeast, California's (PA) running back Wesley Cates will be compared with IUP's tailback, Aamir Dew.
Although listed as a wide receiver, Nickerson's forte is as a punt and kick return man. He is ranked twelfth in the nation through last weekend's games. Eric Howe is well down the list of measurements for quarterbacks.
A serious problem both candidates face in their own region is the dominance of Josh Ranek whose statistical positions among running backs jumps off the NCAA listings. Although Lamar Gordon is much farther down the listings in all rushing-related categories, his name recognition among SID's in his region and nationally likely gives him a big edge in the balloting Gordon also was a finalist in the 2000 Harlon Hill race. The big issue with Gordon this year is whether sports information directors vote based on this year's performance, which is what is supposed to happen, or if they give Gordon "career" credits for performances done before this season.
Of the three on-field meetings of the Harlon Hill candidates by far the most interesting and perhaps most consequential for voters is the Cates-Dew matchup.
In terms of yards per game Cates holds a 9.8-yard-per-game edge over Dew, but Dew has a .2-yard edge in average yardage per carry. Cates has a big advantage in scoring, but Dew is in an offense that throws as much as it runs. Cates' California squad is eighth in D2 in team rushing. Dew's IUP team is not in the rushing top 25.
Statistically Cates at this point edges out Dew, particularly when you add in scoring where Cates has a big lead.
The issue, however, this weekend will be to see if Cates can run against one of his league's top defenses. This game could go a long way toward possibly deciding one of the two players that could emerge from the regional balloting and end up on the first round of the national voting.
The most intriguing match among Harlon Hill candidates and perhaps the fairest comes next weekend when UC Davis' quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan and Scott Mitchell of Western Washington square off for both personal and team gain. This game will have a huge bearing on the West Region rankings. This meeting deserves more than a one-paragraph mention and will get more next week.
There is a long time to wait to see how the current 24 players fared in the regional balloting. Ballots do not have to be submitted until November 12. The results will not be announced until Nov. 17. The list of eight national finalists will then be voted upon with the final three names to be released November 30.