November 14th, 2001 12:00am
((((16/2)/2)/2)/2)=D2 National Champion
That's the equation that's on the minds of D2 fans this week. With the selection last weekend of the sixteen teams for the D2 playoffs, the guessing game begins about which team will end up being crowned the national champion. But as usual there is a guessing game going on about how some of the teams made it to the anointed group of sixteen. And with good reason.
Nearly no one can argue with some of the selections. Pitt State bulled its way into the tournament following a convincing defeat of Central Missouri. North Dakota likewise ended its regular season with an easy win. No one has issue with these two selections, but the selections of Nebraska-Omaha and Winona have generated considerable debate.
Winona did what it had to do by defeating conference rival Minnesota-Duluth. The issue with Winona is whether it or anyone from the Northern Sun Conference deserves to be in the D2 tournament. The argument is that compared to the other conferences in the Midwest Region, the NSIC is comparatively weak. The argument goes that the winner of the NSIC would be at best in the middle of the pack if not lower in either the MIAA or the North Central Conference.
But put yourself in the position of sitting in the regional call last weekend to decide the final four in the region. You know that Central Missouri had a chance to make a statement and blew it with a 38-13 loss to Pitt State. So how do you ignore Winona that ended its season beating its top conference challenger and putting up nine straight wins? The answer is you can't.
The argument about Winona being in an "inferior" conference does not hold water. And this has nothing to do with whether it would be able to compete in either the MIAA or the NCC.
The NSIC is officially a D2 conference. As long as it is and abides by the rules of the Division the committee cannot arbitrarily and without tangible proof simply ignore Winona's record. If it does, who makes the judgment when or if the NSIC or any of its members do live up to the standards some say are set by both the MIAA and NCC?
The bigger issue is whether Nebraska-Omaha deserves to be in the tournament instead of Central Missouri. Nebraska-Omaha stumbled its way into the playoffs by losing its final two games. It's only claim to a playoff spot comes from its mid-season defeat of North Dakota. Losing to a stumbling North Dakota State and a mediocre Augustana squad, however, taints the Mavericks' playoff entry.
But if Nebraska-Omaha stumbled into the tournament, what do you call IUP's final game effort?
In a stunning display of special teams ineptness, IUP lost its final regular season game to a team that was 2-8 coming into the final weekend - a team that lost by a wide margin to a D-III unit early in the year and whose only two prior wins were over perennial doormats that had a combined 2-19 record.
Here, too, the committee had no choice. Losses by Shepherd and New Haven's loss to Northern Colorado made the four Northeast Region selections actually simple, despite the less-than-playoff-worthy showing IUP had to close out its regular season.
But, nonetheless, here we are ready to open week one of the tournament that ultimately will decide which team will be the Division II national champion.
Pittsburg State will have to self-destruct to lose its tournament-opening contest hosting UNO. The Gorillas put away Central Missouri in workman-like fashion. If it plays the same way against UNO the Gorillas easily will move into the regional final.
And where will Pitt State play? How about Grand Forks, North Dakota?
It is difficult to imagine any scenario that keeps the Sioux out of the second round of the tournament. Beating Winona may not be the blowout many Sioux fans expect, but losing this game is almost unimaginable.
From this perspective the most interesting regional match-ups this weekend are in the West where Tarleton State visits Chadron State and Texas A&M-Kingsville hosts UC Davis. Although Chadron and Davis probably are the consensus favorites, it does not take much to make anyone believe either of these games could be won by the underdog.
The Northeast Region puts Bloomsburg at Grand Valley State and IUP at Saginaw Valley.
Grand Valley clearly is the favorite in its contest, but then so was UC Davis when it hosted Bloom last season. Bloom, of course, walked away the winner and moved on to the national title game. This year's Bloom squad does not appear to be the equal of last season's unit, but conceding this game to Grand Valley would be a mistake. Despite the fact that Bloom will make this a battle, however, Grand Valley still looks like the right pick in this game.
Saginaw and IUP appear to match up well considering talent and styles of play. This game easily could go to the wire and be won by the team making fewer mistakes. It is unlikely either team will dominate the other. Saginaw's home field advantage might be just the edge to give it the nod in this game.
The Fort Valley at Valdosta State seems to fall into the same category as the UNO-Pitt State game. The home and favored team should take care of this one easily.
The Central Arkansas at Catawba game is another story. This one will be a battle.
There are some who think the South Region committee missed the boat by not putting Arkansas Tech into the tournament when Central Arkansas managed to lose its final regular season game to Tech. Despite this, however, Central will give Catawba a real fight and may come out of it as a winner. Home field advantage is a plus for Catawba, but the stiffer competition Central has faced all season may have prepared it better for the rigors of postseason play.
Nonetheless this one should be a close game between what appear to be two evenly matched teams. In English, this one's too close to call.
This weekend the first round winners in the Harlon Hill balloting will be announced, which will narrow the field down to eight national finalists. The next round of voting taking the list down to three commences immediately.
But the initial regional ballot had one glaring omission on it, Dorian Glenn at Slippery Rock. The word I get is that Glenn is being "watched" by the type of watchers he likes, NFL scouts.
Glenn has had impressive numbers throughout his career. But he had a three-game stretch this season with relatively little production. He did not end the season that way.
Glenn was not nominated by his coach or SID. This was not an oversight.
Through Glenn's fallow period the feeling apparently was that he would never get to numbers impressive enough to fare well in the voting, and to their credit, no one at the Rock wanted to merely throw a name in and be accused of simply submitting a name some for the sake of a nomination.
But, as it turns out, Glenn had an excellent season, coming on strong at the end. He ended his final season rushing for 1448 net yards and a 6.0 yards per carry average (144.8 yards per game average). He scored 19 touchdowns and ended second in rushing in his conference, one slot above a Harlon Hill nominee.
We have been on this rant before, but stats don't always tell you either the full story or in some cases any story. Thankfully Glenn will get a shot to display the talents his opposition has seen the last four years when he finds his way into some NFL camp next fall.
Makes you wonder, however, how many others are in Glenn's situation relative to the Harlon Hill award.
Related to the playoffs is the issue of officials assigned to games. Hopefully the quality of officiating is better than what we have seen through this season.
Over the last few years in my view there has been a noticeable deterioration in the quality of officiating. Initially I assumed it was only in the Northeast, but conversations around D2 suggest the problem is not unique to one region.
As consequential as the results of a playoff game are, it would be a shame to have a game narrow down to an official's mistake. Officials are human and therefore subject to mistakes just like all of us are. It's the number of errors that has been disturbing.