2021 MIAA Week Nine Preview

October 27th, 2021 7:00pm

I finally did it. I went 6-0 in my picks last week. But it is a short victory lap because the first regional rankings came out on Monday. Here are those rankings for Super Region Three.

Rank	Team	Region Record	D2 Record
1	Ferris State	7-0	7-0
2	Harding	7-1	7-1
3	Grand Valley	4-1	5-1
4	Lindenwood	6-0	6-1
5	Northwest Missouri	6-1	6-1
6	Henderson State	7-1	7-1
7	Nebraska Kearney	7-1	7-1
8	Ouachita Baptist	7-1	7-1
9	Washburn	6-2	6-2
10	Southeastern Oklahoma	6-2	6-2

There are only three weeks left of the regular season. This is who each team has left.

Team	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11
Ferris State	Northern Michigan (3-5)	at Davenport (3-5)	Wayne State (1-7)
Harding	at Northwestern Oklahoma (1-7)	Southwestern Oklahoma (0-7)	at Arkansas Tech (2-6)
Grand Valley	Michigan Tech (4-3)	at Wayne State (1-7)	Davenport (3-5)
Lindenwood	at William Jewell (0-7)	at Missouri S&T (4-4)	McKendree (2-5)
Northwest Missouri	Nebraska Kearney (7-1)	at Missouri Southern (3-5)	Emporia State (4-4)
Henderson State	Southern Nazarene (1-7)	at Oklahoma Baptist (5-3)	at Ouachita Baptist (7-1)
Nebraska Kearney	at Northwest Missouri (6-1)	at Central Oklahoma (4-4)	Northeastern State (2-6)
Ouachita Baptist	at East Central (5-3)	Southeastern Oklahoma (5-2)	Henderson State (7-1)
Washburn	Northeastern State (2-6)	at Pittsburg State (6-2)	Missouri Southern (3-5)
Southeastern Oklahoma	Arkansas- Monticello (4-4)	at Ouachita Baptist (7-1)	East Central (5-3)

As you can see, Ferris State, Harding and Lindenwood have soft schedules to end the year and could hurt their resumes. Ouachita Baptist has the toughest remaining schedule. The MIAA has two huge games left in Nebraska Kearney at Northwest Missouri and Washburn at Pittsburg State. The latter is an elimination game. Washburn is rooting for Nebraska Kearney to win because Washburn has the head-to-head edge over Northwest Missouri.

Also these rankings are quite fluid. Next week’s rankings have no correlation to this week’s rankings.

Week Eight Recap

Northwest Missouri 59 Northeastern State 7

This was never a game. Good get right game for Northwest Missouri that got Mike Hohensee in a nice rhythm and Braden Wright looked good in his return.

Fort Hays 21 Central Missouri 14

Central Missouri’s disastrous season continues. I will give them credit for holding Fort Hays under 30 points, but 2-6 is 2-6.

Washburn 29 Central Oklahoma 17

This game was much closer than the final score indicated. Kudos to Washburn for winning a road game with their backup quarterback. This could have been a big letdown game for Washburn but they got the job done.

Emporia State 24 Missouri Southern 21

Every single Emporia State game ends with an onside kick attempt. It is amazing. Shoutout to Missouri Southern’s pass defense for holding Braden Gleason to 219 passing yards. However, Emporia State held Missouri Southern to 54 rushing yards at two yards per carry.

Nebraska Kearney 56 Lincoln 0

Are you surprised? TJ Davis only played on the first five drives and exited the game with a 28-0 lead in the second quarter. Yawn.

Pittsburg State 34 Missouri Western 14

Missouri Western’s offense is still MIA. This game might as well have been over after the opening kickoff return for a touchdown by Pittsburg State’s Dallas Flowers.

Last week: 6-0

Season: 33-14

MIAA Week Nine Power Rankings

Northwest Missouri State --
Nebraska Kearney --
Pittsburg State --
Washburn --
Emporia State +1
Missouri Southern +3
Central Oklahoma --
Fort Hays State --
Missouri Western -4
Central Missouri --
Northeastern State --
Lincoln --

Week Nine Games

#17 Nebraska Kearney (7-1) at #6 Northwest Missouri (7-1)

Saturday, 2pm

All-time: Northwest Missouri leads 12-4

2019: Nebraska Kearney won 24-17

	Nebraska Kearney	Northwest Missouri
Points Scored	36.6	32.1
Points Allowed	20.0	9.1
Pass Yards	213.5	231.4
Pass Yards Allowed	223.6	190.6
Rush Yards	270.0	216.4
Rush Yards Allowed	156.4	42.1
Total Offense	483.5	447.9
Total Defense	380.0	232.7

This game features two of my favorite MIAA players: TJ Davis and Al McKeller. TJ Davis is second in the conference with 830 rushing yards and leads the MIAA with 13 rushing touchdowns. Al McKeller leads the MIAA with 937 yards on the ground with five touchdowns. Do I trust Northwest Missouri’s defense to limit Davis or Nebraska Kearney’s defense to limit McKeller? I trust the Northwest Missouri defense against almost anyone in the nation but TJ Davis gave them fits in 2019. If Northwest Missouri cannot limit Nebraska Kearney’s rushing attack early, then expect Davis to be quite effective in the passing game taking shots against an inexperienced secondary. But if Northwest Missouri can force Davis to be a pure pocket passer, then the Bearcat defense could feast. I think the two magic numbers are 27 and 50. If Northwest Missouri scores 27 points, they will win this game. If the total points in this game is under 50, big advantage Northwest Missouri. But the more points scored, advantage Nebraska Kearney, they have a history of being able to outscore opponents in a shootout. I do not think Northwest Missouri can win in a shootout. Give me all the defense in this one, Northwest Missouri wins their homecoming and the MIAA title.

Northwest Missouri 24 Nebraska Kearney 20

Central Oklahoma (4-4) at Pittsburg State (6-2)

Saturday, 1pm

All-time: Pittsburg State leads 11-4-1

2019: Pittsburg State won 37-35

	Central Oklahoma	Pittsburg State
Points Scored	26.8	32.8
Points Allowed	22.9	17.8
Pass Yards	190.1	252.0
Pass Yards Allowed	218.9	209.4
Rush Yards	165.0	156.3
Rush Yards Allowed	138.6	131.3
Total Offense	355.1	408.3
Total Defense	357.5	340.6

Pittsburg State is on the outside looking in of the regional rankings right now. I believe they are a top ten team in the region. A win over Washburn next week would put Pittsburg State in prime position to make the playoffs if the Great American Conference teams cannibalize each other over the last three weeks. I doubt the MIAA gets three teams into the playoffs but Pittsburg State could get in with two losses if the loser of the Nebraska Kearney and Northwest Missouri game slips up over the last two weeks. However, Pittsburg State cannot overlook a physical Central Oklahoma team this week. If they do, next week’s game against Washburn will be irrelevant. Unlike myself, Pittsburg State keeps it one game at a time and defends the Jungle.

Pittsburg State 27 Central Oklahoma 20

Northeastern State (2-6) at Washburn (6-2)

Saturday, 1pm

All-time: Washburn leads 9-1

2019: Washburn won 70-13

	Northeastern State	Washburn
Points Scored	17.5	34.4
Points Allowed	44.6	22.4
Pass Yards	202.4	281.8
Pass Yards Allowed	286.1	246.9
Rush Yards	99.9	137.3
Rush Yards Allowed	201.3	116.6
Total Offense	302.3	419.0
Total Defense	487.4	363.5

Northeastern State’s defense is bad and their offense is even worse. Washburn should roll this week and give their backup quarterback Kellen Simoncic plenty of reps. This is a nice tune up game for Washburn before playing Pittsburg State next week.

Washburn 56 Northeastern State 17

Emporia State (4-4) at Fort Hays (4-4)

Saturday, 1pm

All-time: Emporia State leads 53-38-2

2019: Fort Hays won 19-3

	Emporia State	Fort Hays
Points Scored	33.3	31.1
Points Allowed	29.3	21.6
Pass Yards	324.3	320.6
Pass Yards Allowed	296.5	226.1
Rush Yards	141.9	144.0
Rush Yards Allowed	103.5	150.1
Total Offense	466.1	464.6
Total Defense	400.0	376.3

An absolute coin flip game. Braden Gleason and Chance Fuller can sling the rock all over the field. Both teams have also struggled to slow down other passing offenses this year. Emporia State only plays in weird, one score games. I expect this game to be the same. Fort Hays has been up and down all year. The winner of this game has a great chance of finishing the year with a winning record and “saving” a tough season. As much as I love the lefty quarterback for Emporia State, I am rolling with Fort Hays.

Fort Hays 31 Emporia State 30

Missouri Western (3-5) at Missouri Southern (3-5)

Saturday, 2pm

All-time: Missouri Western leads 26-23

2019: Missouri Western won 43-34

	Missouri Western	Missouri Southern
Points Scored	28.6	21.4
Points Allowed	32.8	26.9
Pass Yards	228.8	200.0
Pass Yards Allowed	289.8	208.1
Rush Yards	139.6	163.0
Rush Yards Allowed	146.5	180.3
Total Offense	368.4	363.0
Total Defense	436.3	388.4

This is a lowkey fun matchup. Missouri Southern is having a resurgent season and their pass defense is stout. I am starting to like that team and the direction they are heading. We will see how improved Missouri Southern is with Missouri Western, Northwest Missouri and Washburn on deck. The Lions have a chance to play playoff spoiler the last two weeks. As for Missouri Western, the offense that looked explosive over the first month is punchless now. I do not know how or if Missouri Western can turn it around at this point. Missouri Western has three winnable games to end the year and 6-5 looks a lot better than 5-6 or 4-7. Missouri Southern’s pass defense and Missouri Western’s sloppiness in the difference in this game.

Missouri Southern 23 Missouri Western 17

Central Missouri (2-6) at Lincoln (0-7)

Saturday, 2pm

All-time: Central Missouri leads 24-7

2019: Central Missouri won 73-6

	Central Missouri	Lincoln
Points Scored	24.0	18.1
Points Allowed	30.1	61.9
Pass Yards	308.0	201.4
Pass Yards Allowed	301.4	259.0
Rush Yards	114.0	120.0
Rush Yards Allowed	189.4	313.7
Total Offense	422.0	321.4
Total Defense	490.8	572.7

Central Missouri might be having a rough year but there is no better cure for the late season blues than playing Lincoln.

Central Missouri 42 Lincoln 10