2021 MIAA Week 10 Preview

November 3rd, 2021 7:00pm

The big bad boys of the MIAA flexed their muscles this past week. Northwest Missouri has all but clinched MIAA title number 31 and their 17th straight playoff appearance. Nebraska Kearney, Washburn and Pittsburg state are all outside looking in at the playoffs. The second regional rankings came out on Monday. Here are those rankings for Super Region Three.

Rank	Team	Region Record	D2 Record
1	Ferris State	8-0	8-0
2	Harding	8-1	8-1
3	Grand Valley	5-1	6-1
4	Northwest Missouri	7-1	7-1
5	Lindenwood	7-0	7-1
6	Henderson State	8-1	8-1
7	Ouachita Baptist	8-1	8-1
8	Nebraska Kearney	7-2	7-2
9	Southeastern Oklahoma	7-2	7-2
10	Washburn	7-2	7-2

There are only two weeks left of the regular season. This is who each team has left.

Team	Week 10	Week 11
Ferris State	at Davenport (3-6)	Wayne State (2-7)
Harding	Southwestern Oklahoma (0-8)	at Arkansas Tech (3-6)
Grand Valley	at Wayne State (2-7)	Davenport (3-6)
Northwest Missouri	at Missouri Southern (3-6)	Emporia State (5-4)
Lindenwood	at Missouri S&T (5-4)	McKendree (3-5)
Henderson State	at Oklahoma Baptist (6-3)	at Ouachita Baptist (8-1)
Ouachita Baptist	Southeastern Oklahoma (6-2)	Henderson State (8-1)
Nebraska Kearney	at Central Oklahoma (4-5)	Northeastern State (2-7)
Southeastern Oklahoma	at Ouachita Baptist (8-1)	East Central (5-4)
Washburn	at Pittsburg State (7-2)	Missouri Southern (3-6)

A few thoughts on the playoff picture.

-Ferris State is a lock to be the one seed and home field advantage throughout the region.

-The battle for the two seed between Harding, Grand Valley and Northwest Missouri is intriguing. At the end of the season, I believe Northwest Missouri will be two or three seed.

-Lindenwood will be the five seed.

-Henderson State and Ouachita Baptist will play each other in an elimination game in two weeks (pending neither trips up this week against good opponents).

-Nebraska Kearney will sneak into the playoffs if they win out.

-Watch out for Southeastern Oklahoma, a win over Ouachita Baptist would throw a wrench into everything and I am here for it.

-Washburn and Pittsburg State play this week, the loser is done and the winner is hanging on by a thread.

-Also these rankings are quite fluid. Next week’s rankings have no correlation to this week’s rankings.

#6 Northwest Missouri 66 #17 Nebraska Kearney 13

Do you think Northwest Missouri remembered that Nebraska Kearney beat them in 2019? This was an absolute clinic by Northwest Missouri. Mike Hohensee is healthy again and was at peak efficiency earning MIAA Offensive Player of the Week. Al McKeller tallied four rushing touchdowns, a total that has happened just 15 times in Northwest Missouri history. As good as all the skill guys were for Northwest Missouri, they won this game by dominating the line of scrimmage. Hohensee had all day to throw and the Bearcats ran for 244 yards, kudos to the offensive line. On the other side of the ball, Nebraska Kearney was held to 61 yards rushing on 1.5 yards per carry. The Lopers were averaging 270 yards per game at 5.6 yards per carry. For the first time all year, TJ Davis was forced to be a pure pocket passer, it did not go well.

Pittsburg State 26 Central Oklahoma 20

Pittsburg State’s defense played fantastic, allowing only eight total first downs and 23 rushing yards. Central Oklahoma scored on two passing touchdowns of over 70 yards and that was about it. Pittsburg State escaped a classic trap game.

Emporia State 15 Fort Hays 12

Fort Hays led 12-0 with six minutes left in this game and lost. Emporia State’s first ten drives entailed eight punts, an interception and a turnover on downs. So nothing that indicated that Emporia State was going to two quick touchdowns to win 15-12. Another tough loss for Fort Hays, their fourth one-score loss, they are 2-4 in those games. Emporia State has played in seven straight, one-score games. They are 3-4 in those games.

Washburn 35 Northeastern State 0

Northeastern State has a punchless offense and Washburn rolled to a victory. Mitch Schurig returned from injury and looked solid. The only negative for Washburn from this win is that it hurt their SOS for the playoffs.

Missouri Western 45 Missouri Southern 28

Missouri Western’s offense came back from the dead with Reagan Jones under center. Missouri Western ran for 412 yards with seven different players running the ball. Missouri Southern has an excellent pass defense, but the run defense is still a work in progress. Credit to Missouri Western for adapting and attacking Missouri Southern’s weakness on defense.

Central Missouri 77 Lincoln 35

This game was 63-14 at halftime, end of story. The only positive for Lincoln is that they only allowed 124 yards rushing, we will ignore the part where Central Missouri threw for 419 yards.

Last week: 4-2

Season: 37-16

MIAA Week Ten Power Rankings

Northwest Missouri State --
Nebraska Kearney --
Pittsburg State --
Washburn --
Emporia State --
Missouri Western +3
Missouri Southern -1
Central Oklahoma -1
Fort Hays State -1
Central Missouri --
Northeastern State --
Lincoln --

Week Ten Games

#23 Washburn (7-2) at Pittsburg State (7-2)

Saturday, 1pm

All-time: Pittsburg State leads 63-26-1

2019: Washburn won 49-38

	Washburn	Pittsburg State
Points Scored	34.4	32.0
Points Allowed	19.9	18.0
Pass Yards	279.0	251.3
Pass Yards Allowed	229.1	217.7
Rush Yards	154.4	160.8
Rush Yards Allowed	109.9	119.2
Total Offense	433.4	412.1
Total Defense	339.0	336.9

This is a playoff elimination game. The winner holds on to slim playoff hopes while the loser could be going bowling. The good news for Washburn is that Mitch Schurig is back at quarterback. Washburn has one of the best defensive lines in the MIAA while Pittsburg State has a huge offensive line. Pittsburg State has a trend of jumping out to first half leads and not putting teams away (for example the Nebraska Kearney, Emporia State, Northwest Missouri and Central Oklahoma games). While Pittsburg State won two of those games, it is still an unsettling trend. I believe Pittsburg State is a year ahead of schedule and will continue their playoff push with a win over Washburn.

Pittsburg State 24 Washburn 21

#5 Northwest Missouri (8-1) at Missouri Southern (3-6)

Saturday, 2pm

All-time: Northwest Missouri leads 27-4

2019: Northwest Missouri won 66-34

	Northwest Missouri	Missouri Southern
Points Scored	36.4	22.1
Points Allowed	9.6	28.9
Pass Yards	247.8	211.9
Pass Yards Allowed	189.4	204.6
Rush Yards	219.9	157.3
Rush Yards Allowed	44.5	206.0
Total Offense	467.6	369.2
Total Defense	233.9	410.6

Northwest Missouri is coming off an amazing performance against Nebraska Kearney, but with the playoffs just a couple weeks away they cannot afford a loss. I will be watching to see how Northwest Missouri responds. As for Missouri Southern, they need to sure up their run defense with Al McKeller coming to town. The Northwest Missouri defense is too elite for Missouri Southern’s offense.

Northwest Missouri 34 Missouri Southern 10

#24 Nebraska Kearney (7-2) at Central Oklahoma (4-5)

Saturday, 2pm

All-time: Central Oklahoma leads 6-3

2019: Central Oklahoma won 28-23

	Nebraska Kearney	Central Oklahoma
Points Scored	34.0	26.0
Points Allowed	25.1	23.2
Pass Yards	209.9	200.4
Pass Yards Allowed	239.0	222.1
Rush Yards	246.8	149.2
Rush Yards Allowed	166.1	144.8
Total Offense	456.7	349.7
Total Defense	405.1	366.9

A team like Central Oklahoma is not who you want to see after a backbreaking loss against Northwest Missouri, but that is where Nebraska Kearney is right now. The Lopers fell out of the playoffs but if they win out I expect them to make the playoffs. However, Central Oklahoma is not a great matchup for Nebraska Kearney. Central Oklahoma is a physical football team that likes to punch their opponent in the mouth. The Bronchos are looking to finish above .500 but need to win this game to have a shot. Nebraska Kearney should bounce back this week by getting back to what they do best, running the football and unleashing TJ Davis. Central Oklahoma keeps it close with a few big plays in the passing game but Nebraska Kearney survives.

Nebraska Kearney 31 Central Oklahoma 28

Central Missouri (3-6) at Missouri Western (4-5)

Saturday, 1pm

All-time: Central Missouri leads 18-17-1

2019: Central Missouri won 48-45 OT

	Central Missouri	Missouri Western
Points Scored	29.9	30.4
Points Allowed	30.7	32.2
Pass Yards	320.3	222.9
Pass Yards Allowed	286.1	291.7
Rush Yards	115.1	169.9
Rush Yards Allowed	194.3	142.7
Total Offense	435.4	392.8
Total Defense	480.4	434.3

In this game you have a good Missouri Western rushing attack facing a poor rushing defense from Central Missouri and an explosive Central Missouri passing attack taking flight against a porous Missouri Western secondary. I am looking at possible motivations for each team as a possible differentiating factor for this game. Central Missouri is already guaranteed a losing season and have not played well for most of the year. Missouri Western can finish above .500 with wins over Central Missouri and Lincoln to end the season. Coach Williamson is still building a program at Missouri Western and a strong finish to the season would go a long way for 2022. Give me Missouri Western in a fun game at Spratt.

Missouri Western 31 Central Missouri 27

Fort Hays (4-5) at Northeastern State (2-7)

Saturday, 1pm

All-time: Fort Hays leads 6-2

2019: Fort Hays won 91-7

	Fort Hays	Northeastern State
Points Scored	29.0	15.6
Points Allowed	20.9	43.6
Pass Yards	301.4	189.7
Pass Yards Allowed	219.9	282.7
Rush Yards	147.3	95.0
Rush Yards Allowed	149.7	211.7
Total Offense	448.8	284.7
Total Defense	369.6	494.3

Fort Hays has been an utter disappointment this year but Northeastern State has been practically lifeless since their Week Four overtime win at Lincoln. Since then, Northeastern State has lost by an average score of 48-10. Fort Hays can actually finish the season above .500 with wins over Northeastern State and Pittsburg State to end the year. Fort Hays rolls to a win.

Fort Hays 38 Northeastern State 10

Lincoln (0-8) at Emporia State (5-4)

Saturday, 1pm

All-time: Emporia State leads 5-2

2019: Emporia State won 50-7

	Lincoln	Emporia State
Points Scored	20.3	31.2
Points Allowed	63.8	27.3
Pass Yards	196.8	307.1
Pass Yards Allowed	279.0	280.0
Rush Yards	134.3	142.3
Rush Yards Allowed	290.0	111.3
Total Offense	331.0	449.4
Total Defense	569.0	391.3

Emporia State has played in seven straight one score games. That streak ends this week. Lincoln has the second worst rush defense and the worst scoring and total defense in Division II. The Emporia State passing attack should regain its footing this week before next week’s showdown with Northwest Missouri.

Emporia State 42 Lincoln 3