MIAA Preview Week Six

October 9th, 2019 9:00pm

Week Six Preview

It is officially Fall Classic week. Pittsburg State and Northwest Missouri State played 12 straight regular season games from 2002 to 2013 at Arrowhead Stadium, home of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bearcats dominated the Fall Classic, going 9-3 against the Gorillas. The last time these two teams played in Arrowhead, both teams came in 6-0. The #2 Northwest Missouri State defeated #7 Pittsburg State 24-15. Fast forward to 2019, both teams are undefeated and nationally ranked again. This is the 24th time in the series history that both teams were ranked when playing each other, and the 11th time at Arrowhead. 

I will be at Arrowhead on Saturday, come by and say hello.

#6 Northwest Missouri State (5-0) vs #17 Pittsburg State (5-0)

All-time series: Northwest Missouri State leads 27-25

Last year: Northwest Missouri State won 31-7

When you are watching this game, pay attention to what offense Pittsburg State is running. It will either be the veer with Brandon Mlekus or the spread with Mak Sexton. It is so weird to see a team run two polar opposite offenses in at the same time. I believe because of the matchup with Northwest Missouri, Sexton will get a majority of the snaps. Rich Wright and the Bearcats have shown time after time that they can shutdown a triple option offense. This Bearcat defense in particular is susceptible to the pass. I believe the Gorillas will try to exploit that weakness early and often. On the other side of the ball, which Bearcat offense is going to show up? The ineffective offense that played against Emporia State, the first half vs Washburn and most of the Missouri Western game. Or the explosive, high flying offense that we saw at Missouri Southern and against Central Oklahoma. The Bearcat offense foundation is the running game with Justin Rankin and Isaiah Strayhorn. Pittsburg State is solid against the run, but I expect the Gorillas to load the box and force Braden Wright to beat them through the air. If bad Wright shows up in Arrowhead on Saturday, I expect Mike Hohensee to see playing time. Hohensee has been mainly used as a runner so far this year, but I think the coaching staff will give him a chance to throw the ball more if Wright is not able to accurately. 

Northwest Missouri is probably the more talented team in this game, but I believe Pittsburg State is a difficult matchup for the Bearcats. My prediction is Northwest Missouri is leading late in the game and Sexton leads a game-winning drive for the Gorillas ending in a 2pt conversion for the win.

Massey prediction: Northwest Missouri 35 Pittsburg State 28

My prediction: Pittsburg State 29-28

Central Oklahoma (2-3) at #15 Central Missouri (5-0)

All-time series: Central Missouri leads 5-2

Last year: Central Oklahoma won 33-26

Central Oklahoma is 0-3 all-time in Warrensburg. The Bronchos have been the biggest disappointment in the MIAA this year. I believed Central Oklahoma could contend for the MIAA championship this year. I was so wrong it hurts. The Bronchos have be outscored by Northwest Missouri State and Fort Hays State by a combined score of 94-17 over the past two weeks. It does not get any easier this week in Warrensburg. Central Missouri has scored 34, 70, 55, 48 and 71 points this year. The Bronchos 10th ranked MIAA offense has little to no chance of keeping pace. Mules quarterback Brook Bolles set a school and tied the MIAA record for the most touchdown passes with seven in last week’s win at Missouri Southern.

In the end, the Mules are too explosive and Central Oklahoma is not ready to contend with the top teams in the MIAA.

Massey prediction: Central Missouri 41 Central Oklahoma 35

My prediction: Central Missouri 49 Central Oklahoma 20

Washburn (1-4) at Northeastern State (0-5)

All-time series: Washburn leads 8-1

Last year: Washburn won 58-14

We will see who is starting at quarterback for Washburn. Last week the third string quarterback Chaz Capps started against Missouri Western. Hopefully either Mitch Schuring or Ian Trapp are back soon for the Ichabods. Fortunately for Washburn, they are playing the worst team in the MIAA this week. Washburn should roll in this one and get healthier.

Massey prediction: Washburn 48 Northeastern State 20

My prediction: Washburn 41 Northeastern 10

Nebraska-Kearney (3-2) at Lincoln (0-5)

All-time series: Tied 1-1

Last time: Nebraska-Kearney won 24-14 in 2013

Lincoln only chance to keep this game close is to ride Franklin Hosea. Hosea leads the MIAA with 747 yards on the ground this year. No other player in the MIAA has over 500 yards rushing. Nebraska-Kearney is a great running team, the Lopers have three of the top eight rushers in the MIAA in Darrius Webb, David Goodwin and TJ Davis who have combined for 1,062 yards.

Bold prediction for this game, the Lopers rush for over 450 yards in a dominant win.

Massey prediction: Nebraska-Kearney 38 Lincoln 7

My prediction: Nebraska-Kearney 41 Lincoln 6

Missouri Southern (1-4) at Missouri Western (3-2)

All-time series: Missouri Western leads 27-22

Last year: Missouri Western won 33-10

The Lions have scored 27 or more points in four of their five games on the year. The lone exception was a three point dud at Fort Hays. When Missouri Southern’s offense is clicking, it can keep up with even the best offenses in the MIAA. Unfortunately for the Lions, the defense cannot stop a nosebleed. I expect Missouri Western to tally over 500 yards of offense for the fourth week in a row and win a high scoring affair. 

Massey prediction: Missouri Western 49 Missouri Southern 21

My prediction: Missouri Western 52 Missouri Southern 30

Emporia State (2-3) at Fort Hays State (3-2)

All-time series: Emporia State leads 54-36-2

Last year: Emporia State won 28-24

This is a below the radar good game. Emporia State feels a bit limited on offense, but stingy on defense. The Hornets have the second best pass defense in the MIAA, that unit will be put to the test against Fort Hays. The Tigers have the third most prolific passing attack in the MIAA. Chance Fuller has been forced to air it out because the Fort Hays rushing attack has been mediocre to bad this year. As good as Emporia State’s defense has been this year, the Fort Hays defense has been better against a tougher schedule. 

I expect this to be a defensive slugfest, but Fort Hays will make a few more plays in the end.

Massey prediction: Fort Hays State 29 Emporia State 19

My prediction: Fort Hays State 27 Emporia State 17