MIAA Week Nine Preview

October 29th, 2019 6:00pm

MIAA Week Nine Preview

The first regional rankings were released Monday afternoon. Here is what they looked like:

Rk

Team

Region

Overall

DII Weighted OWP-OOWP

DII Record on Road

DII Results vs .500 or better

1

Ferris State

7-0

8-0

0.535

4-0

5-0

2

Central Missouri

8-0

8-0

0.500

4-0

3-0

3

Indianapolis

7-0

7-0

0.505

3-0

4-0

4

Ouachita Baptist

8-0

8-0

0.441

4-0

2-0

5

Harding

7-1

7-1

0.584

3-1

4-1

6

Northwest Mo. St.

7-1

7-1

0.478

4-1

2-1

7

Grand Valley St.

5-1

7-1

0.483

3-0

3-1

8

Missouri Western

6-2

6-2

0.520

4-0

1-2

9

Fort Hays State

6-2

6-2

0.555

3-1

2-2

10

Henderson State

7-1

7-1

0.429

3-1

1-1

 

Remaining games for each team:

Rk

Team

Week 9

Week 10

Week 11

1

Ferris State

at Michigan Tech (4-3)

Grand Valley (7-1)

BYE

2

Central Missouri

at Neb-Kearney (5-3)

Lincoln (1-7)

NW Missouri (7-1)

3

Indianapolis

at Lindenwood (5-2)

Truman State (5-1)

Lake Erie (3-5)

4

Ouachita Baptist

at Southern Ark. (7-1)

Ark-Monticello (5-3)

Henderson St. (7-1)

5

Harding

East Central (1-7)

at SE Ok. St. (1-7)

at Ark. Tech (2-6)

6

Northwest Mo. St.

Northeastern St. (0-8)

at Fort Hays (6-2)

Central MO (8-0)

7

Grand Valley St.

William Jewell (1-7)

at Ferris State (8-0)

Wayne St. (5-3)

8

Missouri Western

at Pittsburg St. (5-3)

Neb-Kearney (5-3)

at Lincoln (1-7)

9

Fort Hays State

at Lincoln (1-7)

NW Missouri (7-1)

at Northeastern St. (0-8)

10

Henderson State

at Ark-Monticello (5-3)

Southern Ark. (7-1)

at Ouachita (8-0)

The GLVC will be a one team league with Indianapolis being the representative. That leaves six spots for the GAC, GLIAC and MIAA to fight over. Unless Ferris State and Central Missouri utterly collapse down the stretch, they should both make the big dance. Harding has an extremely favorable schedule and should finish the year on a 10 game winning streak to finish 10-1. This leaves just three spots. I still believe Ouachita Baptist is the best team in the GAC and will finish the year 11-0, but their last three games are all against teams with over .500 records. If Ouachita Baptist wins out, I believe they will surpass Indianapolis for the three seed. So that leaves two spots for Grand Valley State, Northwest Missouri State, Fort Hays State and Missouri Western. I do not believe the MIAA is strong enough this year to get three teams into the playoffs, so I am penciling in Grand Valley State even if the Lakers lose to Ferris State. We will have to wait and see how Northwest Missouri, Fort Hays State and Missouri Western close out the year to sort out who will make the playoffs. The Bearcats control their own destiny while the Tigers and Griffons need help.

 

Week Nine Games

Central Missouri (8-0) at Nebraska-Kearney (5-3)

All-time series record: Central Missouri leads 6-1

Last year: Central Missouri won 42-35

Central Missouri cannot overlook the Lopers in this one. We just saw Northwest Missouri go to Nebraska-Kearney two weeks ago and be upset. The Lopers would love to pull off back-to-back home upsets. What we saw last week gives me confidence that Brook Bolles and Central Missouri can exploit the Lopers secondary. The Lopers will be able to run the ball on the Mules, similar to how Pittsburg State did last week. Plus the Nebraska-Kearney defense will be the best defense Central Missouri has seen this year. I think Central Missouri will win an ugly road game, but I would not be shocked to see the Lopers shock the MIAA again.

Massy Prediction: Central Missouri 37 Nebraska-Kearney 30

My Prediction: Central Missouri 31 Nebraska-Kearney 27

 

Missouri Southern (2-6) at Central Oklahoma (3-5)

All-time series record: Central Oklahoma leads 5-2

Last year: Central Oklahoma won 31-0

I say this every week, but every week it seems to be true. If you like offense and scoring, watch Missouri Southern games. It is hard to find something that Central Oklahoma does at an above average level. But the Bronchos are also not terrible at anything either. Just an extremely average team. Missouri Southern is the opposite. The Lions throw the ball around the yard well, but is terrible on defense and turns the ball over too much. I will go with the safe pick and take Central Oklahoma to win this game, but if the good Missouri Southern team shows up, the Bronchos could be in trouble.

Massy Prediction: Central Oklahoma 43 Missouri Southern 27

My Prediction: Central Oklahoma 41 Missouri Southern 35

 

Missouri Western (6-2) at Pittsburg State (5-3)

All-time series record: Pittsburg State leads 33-11

Last year: Pittsburg State won 34-14

This is the most fascinating game of week nine. Pittsburg State is on a three game losing streak against the top teams in the MIAA while Missouri Western is on a five game winning winning streak. The Griffons offense has been explosive all year long. The Gorillas did a nice job last week of holding Central Missouri’s offense in check for most of the game. One thing to keep an eye on is the Pittsburg State passing attack against Missouri Western’s poor pass defense. However, at this point I trust the Missouri Western coaching staff more than I Pittsburg State’s coaching staff. Missouri Western stays in the playoff mix with a hard fought road win.

Massy Prediction: Missouri Western 35 Pittsburg State 34

My Prediction: Missouri Western 41 Pittsburg State 31

 

Fort Hays State (6-2) at Lincoln (1-7)

All-time series record: Fort Hays State leads 7-2

Last time: Fort Hays State won 45-35 in 2013

The Tigers are in the playoff hunt, Lincoln’s lone win was against the lowly Northeastern State Riverhawks. Fort Hays State has one of the better defenses in the MIAA (3rd in points, 5th in total and 3rd in passing). The Tigers will have to key on Hosea Franklin, if Fort Hays State can limit him the Blue Tigers offense will go stagnant again.

Massy Prediction: Fort Hays State 43 Lincoln 3

My Prediction: Fort Hays State 48 Lincoln 7

 

Northeastern State (0-8) at Northwest Missouri State (7-1)

All-time series record: Northwest Missouri leads 9-0

Last year: Northwest Missouri won 62-17

Let’s not overthink this game, the Bearcats are a good football team and the Riverhawks might be the worst Division II team in 2019. The Bearcats just need to stay healthy going into next week’s showdown in Hays, Kansas.

Massy Prediction: Northwest Missouri 59 Northeastern State 3

My Prediction: Northwest Missouri 73 Northeastern State 10

 

Washburn (3-5) at Emporia State (2-6)

All-time series record: Emporia State leads 57-52-6

Last year: Emporia State won 34-31 in OT.

The Turnpike Tussle is one of the oldest and best rivalries in the MIAA. The Ichabods and Hornets have played the second-most played series in Division II history behind only South Dakota Mines and Black Hills State. Unfortunately, neither team this year is particularly good. As much as the Emporia State’s offense has struggled in 2019, the Hornets defense is still stout. Washburn has the better offense but worse defense. This game will come down to if Washburn’s quarterback Mitch Schurig can move the ball against the Hornets defense. So who will win the 120th edition of the Turnpike Tussle? I will take the Hornets in a close, defensive slugfest.

Massy Prediction: Washburn 28 Emporia State 26

My Prediction: Emporia State 24 Washburn 23