SAC Playoff Preview: Round One

November 18th, 2021 3:00pm

For the first time since November, 2019, Playoff football is back! In case you missed it, Brandon Misener and myself joined hosts Wayne Cavadi and Bethany Bowman on their DII Nation podcast earlier this week to discuss the playoffs. You can find that conversation here.

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The SAC is represented by two teams in the first round of the Division II Championship but both teams will have to play on the road. Newly crowed SAC Champions Newberry will travel north to Bowie, Maryland to play CIAA Champs Bowie State while Lenoir-Rhyne will head south to play GSC co-champs and defending national champions, West Florida. Let’s look at the matchups.

Lenoir-Rhyne (8-2) at #2 Bowie State (10-1)

Bowie State profile

Location: Bowie, Maryland

Nickname: Bulldogs

Home Stadium: Bulldog Stadium

Coach: Damon Wilson (87-44, 12^th season)

NCAA Playoff history: 5th appearance (2015, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021)

Playoff record: 1-4

Three things to know about Bowie State

• The Bulldogs have won three straight CIAA Championships, with all three culminating in wins over Fayetteville State in the conference championship game.
• Bowie State is traditionally one of the top defensive teams in Division II. They finished the 2021 regular season ranking 5^th in total defense and 6^th in scoring defense.
• The Bulldogs are tough to beat at home. They have not lost a regular season home game since September, 2016. Their home record over the last five years, including playoff games, is 21-3.

Roster

Schedule

Statistics

Stats at a glance

Five players to watch

#0 DL Joshua Pryor: 57 total tackles, 33 solo, 16.5 TFL, 6 sacks, 6 QBH, 2 FR

#6 RB Calil Wilkins : 1106 rush yards, 100 YPG, 5.3 YPC, 8 TD

#7 QB Ja’rome Johnson: 160 pass yards per game, 59.51%, 155.66 QBR, 20T, 6 Rush TD

#10 DL Jonathan Ross: 63 Total tackles, 32 solo, 22 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 7 QBH, 5 FF

#59 DL Joseph Murray: 9.5 TFL, 9 sacks, 2FF

Lenoir-Rhyne profile

Location: Hickory, North Carolina

Nickname: Bears 

Home Stadium: Moretz Stadium

Coach: Mike Jacobs (11-3, Lenoir-Rhyne / 53-11 career)

NCAA Playoff history: 6th appearance (2012, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2019, 2021)

Playoff record: 8-5

Three things to know about Lenoir-Rhyne

• The Bears are in the playoffs for the third straight season. They advanced to the national quarter-finals in 2018 and 2019.
• Lenoir-Rhyne is the most recent SAC program to compete for a national championship. The Bears finished as runner up in 2013, losing to Northwest Missouri State in the final championship game played in Florence, Alabama.
• The Bears have recovered from a 2-2 start and take a six-game winning streak into the playoffs.

Roster

Schedule

Statistics

Stats at a glance

Five players to watch

#0 DL Dan Louba: 41 total tackles, 23 solo, 10 TFL, 6 sacks, 2 PBU, 2 QBH, 1 FF, 1 FR

#3 RB Dwayne McGee: 224 carries, 1594 yards, 159 YPG, 7.1 YPC, 19 TD

#11 DB Eric Jackson: 50 Total tackles, 29 solo, 4 TFL, 1 INT, 7 PBU, 1 FF, 1 FR

#16 QB Grayson Willingham: 239 YPG, 63.31%, 21 TD, 7 INT, 139.15 QBR

#82 WR Deondre Lester: 53 catches, 669 yards, 12.62 YPC, 6 TD

How Bowie State wins

Lenoir-Rhyne has been on a tear for the past six weeks, but if we look back to the first month of the season, the blue print for how to beat the Bears was laid out by Newberry and UVA Wise. Both teams were able to find ways to get pressure on quarterback Grayson Willingham. The results speak for themselves. UVA Wise had ten tackles for loss, six sacks, and three interceptions. Newberry held onto the ball, minimized possessions and limited Lenoir-Rhyne to seasons lows in total offensive snaps and rushing yards. Those are encouraging signs for Bowie State because those are all things that the Bulldogs do extremely well. Lenoir-Rhyne is still without star receiver and primary deep threat Dareke Young and that has hampered their ability to stretch the field. The Bulldogs will still have to respect the deep ball but it won’t stop them from deploying the aggressive, attacking style they like to play.

I believe in Bowie State’s defense and they will be a huge problem for Lenoir-Rhyne. But the offense will to have to score some points. They made 17 points hold up in the CIAA Championship but I don’t believe that will be enough on Saturday. Lenoir-Rhyne hasn’t exactly played the cream of the crop over the past five weeks, but only one of the past five opponents managed more than a touchdown against the Bears’ D. Bowie’s running game has been good but they’re not going to find much between the tackles. They have to be able to run to the perimeter and they might have to pass more than they normally like to. The Bulldog offense distributes the ball well. Eight individual players have more than 12 receptions for the BSU offense. There might be a weapon in there that hasn’t shown up much on film.

How Lenoir-Rhyne wins

When Carson-Newman played at Bowie State in the 2019 playoffs, the final score was 17-9. I think this will be higher scoring than that, but the Bears need to be ready for a slugfest. Eight of Bowie State’s opponents have been held under two touchdowns so its not going to be an explosive day on the scoreboard. But that also applies for Bowie State. I think Lenoir-Rhyne’s defense is a very difficult match up for the Bulldogs and the Bears’ offense just needs to stay patient. They’re not going to score every time they get the ball and if they start slow, they don’t need to panic or start getting too creative. Stay patient, work the game plan and find ways to get the ball to Dwayne McGee in open space. Quarterback protection is critical and Grayson Willigham has to take care of the football, especially if the Bears struggle early.

Final analysis

I really think patience is the key for Lenoir-Rhyne. They can win a defensive game just as Bowie State can so if the offense isn’t doing much early in the game, rely on the defense to buy them time. Don’t get tricky with gimmick plays and don’t take unnecessary risks. This is the kind of game that can be decided by one critical turnover. The team that loses the turnover battle loses the game.

The pick

Lenoir-Rhyne

Newberry (9-2) at #3 West Florida (9-1)

West Florida profile

2021 Gulf South Conference Co-Champions

Location: Pensacola, Florida

Nickname: Argonauts 

Home Stadium: Blue Wahoos Stadium

Coach: Pete Shinnick (44-18, UWF / 147-64, career)

NCAA Playoff history: 3^rd appearance (2017, 2019, 2021)

Playoff record: 9-1

Three things to know about West Florida

• The program is in just the fifth season of varsity football
• West Florida is the defending (2019) Division II National Champion and 2017 Runner-up
• Saturday’s meeting with Newberry will be the first home playoff game in program history. The Argos are 9-1 in away / neutral site playoff games.

Roster

Schedule

Statistics

Stats at a glance

Five players to watch

#1 WR Ka’Ron Ashley: 43 catches, 655 yards, 15.23 YPC, 10 TD

#2 Shea Campbell: 73 Total tackles, 40 solo, 3.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 INT, 3 QBH

#5 RB Shomari Mason: 106 carries, 966 yards, 96.6 YPG, 9.1 YPC, 10 TD

#14 QB Austin Reed: 328 YPG, 57.14%, 168.33 GBR, 35 TD, 5 INT

#17 WR David Durden: 32 catches, 715 yards, 22.34 YPC, 7 TD

Newberry profile

2021 South Atlantic Conference Champions

Location: Newberry, South Carolina

Nickname: Wolves 

Home stadium: Setzler Field

Coach: Todd Knight (77-59, 13^th season)

NCAA Playoff history: 5^th appearance (2006, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2021)

Playoff record: 1-4

Three things to know about Newberry

• The Wolves won the SAC championship outright on the final day of the season. They finished with a 7-1 conference record, a game ahead of second place.
• Newberry’s 9-2 overall record secured the program’s first winning fall season since 2016, which was also their most recent SAC Championship and playoff appearance.
• Coach Todd Knight is the winningest coach in program history, an honor he earned earlier this season when the Wolves got their 73^rd victory under his direction.

Roster

Schedule

Statistics

Stats at a glance

Five players to watch

#1 QB Dre Harris: 190 pass YPG, 63.93%, 163 QBR, 17TD, 7 INT, 343 rush yards, 6 rush TD

#2 WR Bryson Woodruff: 53 catches, 762 yards, 14.38 YPC, 8 TD

#8 DB Anthony Blue: 43 Total tackles, 34 solo, 1.5 TFL, 4 INT, 12 PBU

#24 RB Mario Anderson: 195 carries, 1144 yards, 100 YPG, 5.7 YPC, 9 TD

#90 DL Tyran Dixon: 51 total tackles, 17 solo, 10 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 FF, 1 FR

How Newberry wins

Newberry is tough at the line scrimmage on both sides of the ball but they won’t be able outman the Argos physically. They can compete, but they won’t be able out muscle them. This is going to be their biggest challenge. They have two keys to victory. First, Establish the run. Their bread and butter is tough yards with Mario Anderson who churns out exactly 100 yards per game. They need that productivity from him and they need go to some of the creativity we’ve seen a few times this year with WR sweeps with Deshun Kitchings and Bobby Irby. If they can pick up first times on the ground I think it opens up some possibilities with their short passing game to Bryson Woodruff and Irby. But if they have to throw a lot on second down, it will be a bad sign. The second key is to get a good push with the defensive front. West Florida is the number two scoring offense in Division II for a reason, and that reason is dudes. West Florida has dudes. They must find ways to disrupt the passing game with some creative pressure, and use the long bodies of edge rushers Juwan Moye and Tyran Dixon. Those two need to shed blocks in a hurry, get some pressure and be sure to get their hands up to disrupt the pass and possibly create turnovers. The Wolves must win the turnover battle to win this game.

How West Florida wins

The keys to victory for West Florida are a lot simpler because they just have a deeper roster. If they play their game, protect quarterback Austin Reed and don’t give the ball away, it will be a good day. Newberry is tough against the rush and they do have big bodies on the edge, so the Argos might need running back help in the blocking schemes. Lock that down and let Reed use his weapons. The Argos’ top four receivers each have more than 20 grabs, and they all average well over 15 yards per catch. Each of their top three ball catchers (David Durden, Ka'ron Ashley and Rodney Coates) could be the top receier in any Division II conference. Defensively, West Florida has been vulnerable at times this year. Newberry does have potential to make a defense forget about the long ball. They use a lot of underneath passes and receiver screens, but they take shots down field, and they do have receivers in Woodruff and Kitchings that can make contested catches. The Argos can’t get lulled to sleep if everything is front of them early in the game.

Final analysis

Newberry has a lot talent in a lot places. But I don’t think this is a good first round match up for them. I think they’ll hit a few big plays to put points on the board but they’ll need consistency from the offense from start to finish and will need the best defensive effort they’ve had all season. Their special teams nearly cost them the Wingate game and that worries me in this matchup. I don’t think Newberry will win, but my pessimism has a lot more to do with West Florida than the Wolves. I have West Florida as the last team standing in Mckinney, Texas next month. The playoff run starts on Saturday.

The pick

West Florida

Questions, suggestions, comments, complaints? Email me at [email protected] and follow me on Twitter @D2Chuck.