October 21st, 2021 10:00am
Before diving into the weekly rundown and the schedule ahead, I want to remind D2 fans that the first round of regional rankings (the rankings that will determine the playoff participants at season’s end) will be released this coming Monday, October 25. Visit the D2football.com home page Monday evening for the latest news. There may even be a bonus episode of D2 Nation on Monday to catch reactions from our columnists around the country.
SAC Rankings
1. Wingate
If you read my mid-season team-by-team updates last week, you might remember that I said Wingate has a tough second half of the season. Really tough. I also said the game at Barton could be closer than we might think. My choice of words about Barton was that they are a team punching above its weight. That’s probably a fair assessment for a first year program that is 4-3 as we get into the last month of season. But it’s a slight disservice too, because the reality is Barton is becoming a good football team. Good enough to beat the winningest program in the SAC over the last five years. Upsets are always possible, especially in 2021, but I’m more than willing to admit I did not see that one coming.
It’s a humbling loss, but the important thing to remember is that it was not a conference game. It will be next year, but not this year. Wingate remains at the top of the SAC standings, unbeaten in conference play and still in control of the chances to win the confernence. They have some things to fix and not much time to figure it out. They go to Wise this weekend, where the Cavs won some big games earlier this year and then finish with the teams currently 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the SAC standings.
2. Mars Hill
Mars Hill is on a three-game winning streak and that has the Lions looking like a very strong contender for the SAC championship. Like Wingate, they control their destiny in the conference because their only league loss is to Lenoir-Rhyne who is a game behind. The defense has been good all year and last week was their best outing so far. We know Limestone is still trying to sort things out, but the Lions didn’t let them get anything on track. They held the Saints to just 133 yards for the game. Mars Hill went with a ground-heavy game plan, rushing the ball on 57 of 75 snaps.
3. Newberry
The 14-7 home win over Catawba wasn’t pretty, and it didn’t feel like it should have been that close, but a win is a win. My concern for the Wolves is the offensive productivity comes and goes too much. Even on days when they put up yards, like at Mars Hill and against Catawba, they don’t finish enough drives with points. Nonetheless, they are winning and should be a heavy favorite in three of the last four games. The fourth is Wingate, whom the Wolves played very close in 2019 and defeated in the 2021 spring. They need to work on finishing drives but they’re in a good position. They are very much in the running for a SAC Championship and a post season invitation.
4. Lenoir-Rhyne
Lenoir-Rhyne’s offense has not had the consistency we’ve seen in recent years but the performance at Carson-Newman (albeit, against a free-falling program) was a big boost of confidence. Running back Dwayne McGee has been getting stronger as the year has progressed and he had his best day as a Bear, rushing for 200 yards and 5 touchdowns. Grayson Willingham had a day of 2018/2019 form hitting 28 of 36 passes for 359 yards and a pair of scores. All told, the Bears rolled up an astounding 750 yards of offense. With two losses, they’re playing from behind but if they win the last four games, I think they’ll be a playoff team.
5. Tusculum
Tusculum really needed a bounce back performance after three straight losses and they got it with a hard earned victory over UVA Wise. The Pioneers trailed for most of the first half, but finished strong in both halves, outscoring Wise 20-7 in the second quarter and 14-0 in the fourth. Tusculum has been in a lot of close games this year but finishing in the fourth quarter has eluded them. Hanging onto a slim 23-21 lead with under 6 minutes to go, the Pioneers finished with a pair of late TDs. Third down efficiency was crucial in the Pioneers’ ability to keep drives alive on their way to 539 yards of offense. They still have to win three of the last four to have a winning season, but it’s doable.
6. UVA Wise
The Highland Cavaliers had a competitive game going at Tusculum but once again a lack of a rushing attack really hurt them. They had 312 yards of offense for the day but only 17 of it was on the ground and sacks don’t explain that number. Even if you took out the negative yardage plays, they would have netted only 34 yards. It’s a shame they have not been able to sustain the momentum from earlier in the season. They’re still on an upward trajectory overall, but right now they’re looking like a team that peaked early in the season. They’re at home against a Wingate team that is coming off a bad game and then have Limestone and Catawba, so there is still a chance to finish strong.
7. Catawba
Catawba’s offense has a couple of things they do very well but they are limited in what they can do. That finally caught up with them against a good Newberry defense. The Wolves did a good job of preventing QB Ken Avent from getting out of the pocket and taking off down field. One 20-yard scamper from Avent ended up being a quarter of their rushing yardage for the game. The Indians would total just 165 yards and 7 points. The good news was that despite yielding 421 total yards, the defense was able to get off the field on many occasions and kept them in the game down to the final possession.
8. Limestone
The Saints are running out of opportunities to get a win this season and the offensive showing against Mars Hill last weekend was discouraging. Until the final drive of the game when they mustered a field goal to get their only points of the day, every possession ended with a punt or an interception. Nine of 13 drives moved 10 yards or less and their longest drive of the day was 32 yards. It was pretty ugly. They got some meaningful experience for two young quarterbacks but it was a tough day to learn on the job.
9. Carson-Newman
This is heading towards the worst season in Carson-Newman football history, and it isn’t getting any better. In fact, it’s getting worse and the drubbing they took last week might be the low point. The Eagles were run off their own field last Saturday by a Lenoir-Rhyne team coming off a few challenging outings. They were never in game. It was 28-0 at the end of the first quarter and a total embarrassment by the end of the third. We know that the offense has a lot of problems and the O-line is still really young, but what happened to the defense? They can’t get off the field, miss tackles, get caught out of position and let receivers find huge swaths of open turf way too often. Its hard to watch. I don’t care who they’re playing, giving 750 yards for they day and being completely out of the game after a quarter is unacceptable.
Here is the schedule for week eight
#19 Wingate (5-1, 3-0) at UVA Wise (3-4, 2-3) 12:00
Wingate had a tough day against Barton’s rushing attack, allowing 5.7 yards per carry and 229 total rushing yards. They will face a very different offense this week as Wise enters the game as the SAC’s least productive rushing offenses (91.1 yards per game, 2.8 per rush). I think Wingate will take that away fairly easily and put all the pressure on Wise to earn it throwing the ball. We’ve seen that the Cavs can move the ball but the consistency has dropped off. The Cavs are second in the league in passing yards per game but only sixth in yards per attempt (6.1). For the Wingate offense, last week wasn’t good but it also wasn't terrible. They rushed for 208 yards but had to do it without Nijere Peoples. It would be a big lift for the offense if he is able to return.
What to watch: Controlling possession for 35 minutes didn’t help Wingate last week, but this week I think it will. Minimizing possessions and putting pressure on Wise to maximize every drive could work in the Bulldogs’ favor.
The pick: Wingate
Catawba (4-1, 1-1) at Mars Hill (5-2, 3-1) 1:00
We’ve been wondering for weeks what would happen when Catawba went up against a good defense. We saw it at Newberry and the results weren’t good. It might be even more challenging this week. Mars Hill has one of the best rush defenses in the nation, ranking fourth out of 163 teams. The Indians are going to have to find something in the passing game to win this one but I just don’t see it happening. Catawba’s passing offense averages just 113 yards per game. I think they need to get near 200 to win on Saturday. The Indians' defense has the potential to keep the game low scoring, like they did last week, but Mars Hill will find ways to put up the points they need.
What to watch: I’ll be interested in Mars Hill’s game plan. Statistically they are more productive passing than rushing but they really like to work the running game. The Lions have more rushing attempts (303) than any other SAC team.
The pick: Mars Hill
Limestone (0-5, 0-3) at Lenoir-Rhyne (4-2, 3-2) 2:00
The analysis on this one is pretty short and simple. LR is coming off a stellar day running the ball at Carson-Newman. As a team they ran for 383 yards and the top three rushers each averaged more than 6.5 yards per carry. Limestone is in the bottom 10 in the nation in rush defense, allowing 229 yards per game. I don’t know that LR will get to 750 total yards for the second week in a row but, I do think they will have a very big day.
What to watch: Lenoir-Rhyne running back Dwayne McGee needs just 28 yards to reach 1,000 for the season. He is currently fourth in the nation, averaging 162 yards per game.
The pick: Lenoir-Rhyne
Carson-Newman (0-6, 0-4) at Newberry (5-2, 4-1) 4:00
If Carson-Newman has an upset in them, maybe its this week. They’ll need something like the two kickoff return TDs they had at Catawba, but if they do get some luck, maybe they can catch Newberry overlooking them. Maybe. I don’t know. I’m just trying to find anything to be optimistic about for Carson-Newman fans. The numbers don’t add up to a win. Newberry’s physical style of rushing should wear down a Carson-Newman defense allowing 225 rushing yards per game. The only concern is, as mentioned above, Newberry does sometimes struggle to finish drives with points. But even if it ends up being low scoring, I don’t see an upset happening. Newberry is solid all around on defense and should not have much trouble stuffing a Carson-Newman offense that just doesn’t have anything working for them.
What to watch: Carson-Newman has been putting themselves into early deficits all year. They have been outscored 83-17 in the first quarter. Newberry is +20 points on their opponents in the first quarter. Its homecoming at Newberry and Setzler Field will be packed so an explosive start for the Wolves could set the tone.
SAC Game of the week
Barton (4-3) at Tusculum (3-4, 2-3) 2:00
I’ve written this game capsule last and named it game of the week because I am struggling on which way to go. It should be very competitive. I think Tusculum is a team that is a little better than the 3-4 record and I think Barton is improving at a faster rate than any team in the region right now. I think the win last week over UVA-Wise has potential to be a turning point for the Pioneers. Their passing offense is second in the SAC in yards per game and becoming more efficient each week. But they will face a Barton defense that has become pretty good at limiting passing yards. This could come down to Tusculum’s ability to run the ball. If they can meet or exceed their 4.4 yards per carry average, I like their chances.
What to watch: Barton RB Jordan Terrell commands attention as one of D2’s top rushers but the Barton passing offense has been coming to life. Watch for receiver Kameron Johnson. He’s a big play threat, averaging 18.42 yards on 26 receptions.
The pick: Tusculum
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